Strong Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)

[chris_fit]

Slightly S/W of previous run at 192 hours - probably irrelevant

[gatorcane]

At 192 hours, there is much more ridging over the Northern Atlantic but at that position and strength eventually it should recurve on this run. Question is whether this is the start of a trend?

Bump to new page

[plasticup]

Slightly S/W of previous run at 192 hours - probably irrelevant

This should scare Bermuda a little:



937 mb at 228 hrs . This run is 50 mb deeper and 10 degrees farther west

Shocked if we don't get an invest based on this GFS run alone.

[chris_fit]

up up and away at 240 hours - also nothing really behind it - unlike what the Euro is showing

[cycloneye]

Big ACE producer will be if this pans out by GFS.Lowest pressure is 931 mbs.

[Kazmit]

If this makes it to cat 5, this will be the 3rd year in a row with at least one cat 5 in the Atlantic.

[plasticup]

If this makes it to cat 5, this will be the 3rd year in a row with at least one cat 5 in the Atlantic.

Haha feels crazy to be talking like this when the wave is still over Africa but this is a crazy model run.

[ava_ati]

Hoping that the timing pans out that it just makes it between two highs 12 days out is a bit disconcerting to say the least.

[cycloneye]

30%/60%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is
forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde
Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring
rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and
interests in that region should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[SoupBone]

30%/60%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is
forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for
development, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde
Islands and the adjacent Atlantic. This system is expected to bring
rains and gusty winds to those islands in two or three days, and
interests in that region should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Shell Mound]

Hoping that the timing pans out that it just makes it between two highs 12 days out is a bit disconcerting to say the least.

Ridging would need to be far stronger and deeper to produce a south-of-due-west track. To my eyes, the upcoming ridging is too flat and broken for this system to even threaten Bermuda. This is evident on both the GEFS and EPS ensemble means. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate fairly quick development and a steady WNW movement through and beyond the Cabo Verde islands. This scenario, given the projected pattern, would only produce a fish, albeit a possible hurricane. So I'm not very concerned about this potential system, and I don't see why anyone else should be, in my humble opinion.

[otowntiger]

If this makes it to cat 5, this will be the 3rd year in a row with at least one cat 5 in the Atlantic.

And most importantly it looks like it will be a fish. A huge fish, but a fish nonetheless.

[cycloneye]

I think at some point on Thursday we will see this area tagged as Invest 90L.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is much weaker than GFS.

[plasticup]

12z Euro is much weaker than GFS.

What does it say about the track?

[cycloneye]

12z Euro is much weaker than GFS.

What does it say about the track?

[floridasun78]

we love fish

[gatorcane]

we love fish

Fish quiet threads too. Latest GFS continues to show a significant cane recurving over the Central subtropical Atlantic.

But not much commentary here

[cycloneye]

40%/70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is
forecast to form between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands on Thursday. Conditions appears to be favorable for
subsequent additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the weekend while the system moves westward or
west-northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands and the adjacent
Atlantic. This system is expected to bring rains and gusty winds to
those islands in two or three days, and interests in that region
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[toad strangler]

we love fish

Not me. Bad for my business. But I respect the fish lover.