Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic (now Invest 92L)

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galaxy401
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Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic (now Invest 92L)

#1 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:44 pm

Is this the one that models have been developing behind Florence? This might need to be watched in the long term.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast
to move westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become
more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance by the
middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#2 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:47 pm

The 00z Euro seemed to weakly develop this wave, but is stronger with the wave behind this one.
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Re: Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:50 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Is this the one that models have been developing behind Florence? This might need to be watched in the long term.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located along the west coast of Africa is forecast
to move westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next
several days. Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become
more conducive for some slow development of this disturbance by the
middle of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


The one behind this one is what Euro has developing.
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Re: Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#4 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Sep 02, 2018 12:55 pm

Yeah that's what I thought. I knew there were two waves behind Florence that could develop and the second one is the one the models are keen on.

Still, got to see what this one does.
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Re: Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 02, 2018 4:23 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Yeah that's what I thought. I knew there were two waves behind Florence that could develop and the second one is the one the models are keen on.

Still, got to see what this one does.

Might have the wave behind take the moisture and develop so it’s a complex situation
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Re: Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#6 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 02, 2018 5:30 pm

NHC has tagged the wave near the coast (black line). The GFS and Euro want to develop the next one (blue line).

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 02, 2018 6:49 pm

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
several days while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#8 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:28 am

00z Euro has this wave making the splash in 24 hours and develops this into a 1004mb TS in 5 days.Image


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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:36 am

A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next several days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Image
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#10 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 03, 2018 8:49 am

Euro and GFS show it approaching the Lesser Antilles, GFS goes poof with it after that though. Canadian shows nada, FV3 GFS sends it into S. Florida as a Cat 3 hurricane.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:36 am

All the atention for Gordon and on lesser degree on Florence is justified but this wave has to be watched down the road. It looks fairly good.Maybe a sleeper?

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#12 Postby KAlexPR » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:23 am

cycloneye wrote:All the atention for Gordon and on lesser degree on Florence is justified but this wave has to be watched down the road. It looks fairly good.Maybe a sleeper?



It also has an upper-level anticyclone. SST's are fairly warm, around 27-28C, SAL is confined to higher latitudes, and shear shouldn't be an issue for now. We'll have to wait and see how it evolves.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#13 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:53 am

I haven't looked deeply at this one, but it sure does need to be watched imo. Good points from all.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#14 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:52 pm

Up to 10/40 now.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next several days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:56 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Up to 10/40 now.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located more than 400 miles southeast of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this disturbance is
possible during the next several days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


Image
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

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Re: Tropical Wave over the Far Eastern Atlantic

#16 Postby KAlexPR » Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:33 pm

It is now Invest 92L.

AL, 92, 2018090318, , BEST, 0, 108N, 185W, 25, 1005, LO
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