Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico (is Invest 94L)

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chaser1
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Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico (is Invest 94L)

#1 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:11 am

An area of disturbed along a largely naked tropical wave has flared up near a point close to 26.0 N and 60.0 W. This area has shown an increase in convection and is already displaying some level of co-located rotation. Immediately to the west of the wave axis is a large cut-off low which appears to be warming quite a bit, hence the increase of cloud cover within this feature. Both appear to be currently moving generally west in tandem. Southwest upper level shear does appear to be present near-by and streaming up from the E. Caribbean however these winds will be bending more anticyclonic as the large cut-off low begins to interact pulling those winds from the southwest to a more south to north orientation ahead of the westward moving wave associated tropical disturbance.
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#2 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:49 am

Close-up of small area of convection with area depicting associated weak circulation. Currently, this small area is only showing up on GFS analysis as a small area of 500 mb vorticity and at 850mb. It is sandwiched under very small area of light upper level winds between the upper low and southwesterly shear to its west and strong upper level shear to it's east as a result of Hurricane Florence well to it's east. Relative surface pressures are high and around 1018mb. SST's in the area are adequately warm ranging from 28C - 29C.

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#3 Postby boca » Wed Sep 05, 2018 8:59 am

I saw that this morning and it heading towards Florida. We might have an interesting end of the week if this develops.
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#4 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:03 am

Well, if shear can ease up in that region of the basin, this may have a window to develop. Let us see if the models do any thing with it in later runs.
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#5 Postby chaser1 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 9:41 am

.... and "poof" lol, naked swirl. Guess we'll have to see if it can generate new convection and fend off the moderate shear still affecting it.
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#6 Postby boca » Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:46 am

The area in Bahamas is flaring up again but it’s an upper low
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#7 Postby boca » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:23 am

The area in the Bahamas looks like a mid level low working down to the service, should we be concerned over this area?
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#8 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Sep 06, 2018 9:43 am

There appears to be a large area of disturbed weather just east of Florida over the Bahamas. It has some spin with it. Upper level low perhaps trying to work down to the surface?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/G ... &length=24

Appears to be some vorticity near the surface at 850 mb:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

boca wrote:The area in the Bahamas looks like a mid level low working down to the service, should we be concerned over this area?


At the very least it will enhance rain chances, and since there is an upper level low in this area according to water vapor imagery about to move over Florida- there is cold unstable air aloft. This would bring enhanced rain chances and the cold air aloft due to the upper level low may lead to some thunderstorms with gusty winds. It will be interesting to see if it continues to work down to the surface- that would mean lots of showers and squally weather for Florida.
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Re: Area of Disturbed Weather North of Hispanola

#9 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 4:50 am

Interesting confluence of tropical wave mixed in with a mid to upper level area of low pressure. Mid to upper level low seems to be centered over the Central West Bahamas this a.m. Area I am most suspicious of however is around 70W well north of Hispaniola where a small vort center along a weak wave have been moving slowly westward under the prevailing low/mid level ridging over the Northwest Atlantic. Cloudiness and thunderstorm activity stretching from this point westward towards the Florida coastline appear to have increased somewhat but with no present signs of organization thus far.
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#10 Postby fendie » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:47 am

Was this just renamed Invest 94L?
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#11 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:54 am

fendie wrote:Was this just renamed Invest 94L?


I think so. Waiting to see if a BT file has been created...
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#12 Postby artist » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:00 am

NHC tropical weather discussion-

A large upper-level low centered over the northwestern Bahamas
extends a trough southwestward across central Cuba. The low
continues progressing in a westward motion. Its associated upper-
level cyclonic flow covers the Atlantic west of 66W, and
northward to about 35N. A westward moving surface inverted
trough is analyzed from 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and to just
north of the coast of Cuba near 24N79W. Another surface trough is
analyzed from near 31N66W to 29N67W. Available deep atmospheric
moisture for these features to work on has resulted in ample
instability bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
waters north of 25N between 67W and 78W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 65W, and also north of 28N
between 50W and 65W.

Miami local discussion-
National Weather Service Miami FL
1021 AM EDT Fri Sep 7 2018

.UPDATE...

A closed upper low evident via moisture channel imagery is
located over the Bahamas and southern Florida this morning. Deep
layer moisture is advecting into the area on east to southeasterly
flow and is evident via the precipitable water value of 1.99 on
the 07.12z MIA sounding. As the low slowly meanders about into
tomorrow expect scattered showers and periodic thunderstorms to
occur.

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (This Weekend): The upper level low and trough will move
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico for the weekend. Wind flow will veer
more southerly to southwesterly keeping deep tropical moisture across
the area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the weekend with highest chances of showers and
storms across northern portions of region around Lake Okeechobee.
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico

#13 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:01 am

September 2018 is taking too much inspiration from September 2017 at this point, it needs to chill lol
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Re: Tropical Wave Flare-Up well North of Puerto Rico (is Invest 94L)

#14 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 07, 2018 10:16 am

It just went up in the NRL site. Since this is Invest 94L now, this thread is being locked.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119877
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