Cyclone over the Black Sea

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TheAustinMan
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Cyclone over the Black Sea

#1 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Sep 07, 2018 5:13 pm

You read that right. A system developed over the Black Sea last night and should be moving into Russia or back northward into Ukraine later today in a few hours, with current surface analyses putting it at 1002 mb. A symmetric warm core according to GFS, UKMET, and CMC phase analyses. There are some better images floating around, but I am not well accustomed to European image sources.

353 KB. Source: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?p=geographic&l=VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night(hidden),MODIS_Terra_Brightness_Temp_Band31_Night(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(hidden),Reference_Labels,Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2018-09-07-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=18.96048605201129,38.41672906289735,45.96048605201129,51.60032281289735
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129KB. Source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
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DanieleItalyRm
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Re: Cyclone over the Black Sea

#2 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Sep 08, 2018 5:24 am

1000 hpa 40 kt 26c Sea surface
many images on tc discussion in facebook page: https://m.facebook.com/groups/494969043 ... ef=m_notif
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Re: Cyclone over the Black Sea

#3 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 08, 2018 12:39 pm

Pretty awesome, I wonder if there has ever been a full fledge tropical system in the Black Sea?
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Re: Cyclone over the Black Sea

#4 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Sat Sep 08, 2018 1:37 pm

I have filed at least 10 systems over the Black Sea. I think that the tropical transition happens wherever there is possible contrast cold air / warm sea temperature / convection.
For them, the Medicanes are anomalous cyclones of the Mediterranean. Nobody analyzes the tropical transition. In Italy they do not know it. I say that tropical transition are the same all over the world. The formation area often deceives. Also the Noaa asserts that at least 5% of the tropical cyclones cataloged are derived from non-tropical origins, with a source of cold air at altitude and an imbalance between air and sea. This is also what happens on the Med and rarely on the Black Sea.
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Re: Cyclone over the Black Sea

#5 Postby DanieleItalyRm » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:21 am

I have no doubt. This can not be a subtropical cyclone but a tropical cyclone T3.0 intensity (max 45kt tropical storm) - probably 999 hpa.
It displeased me that many (or no one) they gave importance to this system. The storm formed an eye during landfall but was rapidly weakening:
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Re: Cyclone over the Black Sea

#6 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:20 am

Looked better then Isaac! It was without a doubt a tropical cyclone. I'll say 50 knts
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Re: Cyclone over the Black Sea

#7 Postby GSBHurricane » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:06 pm

Perhaps we’ll see more of these things in the future with climate change causing global warming and the sea levels to rise.
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