NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

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Dean4Storms
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NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 08, 2018 10:06 am

You peeps over TX way should keep up with the area now blossoming in the SW Carib. Sea which if you track it on the Euro heads for the Western Gulf as the week wears on. There are a few members of the ECM ENS that go on to develop this in the Western Gulf but regardless looks like an increase in rainfall for eastern TX.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=watl&product=vis
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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#2 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:28 am

12z GFS and Canadian are showing a bit more vorticity with this wave as it moves into the western Gulf late this week. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#3 Postby ForexTidbits » Sat Sep 08, 2018 7:58 pm

The reliable ECMWF ensembles continue to indicate a low chance of TC formation from the southern Gulf of Mexico to the NE Mexican/Texas coasts early/middle part of next week. Best not to ignore the ECMWF when it presents a very consistent theme. #TropicalUpdate #tropics

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1038548591793594368


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Area south of Cuba

#4 Postby CW0262 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:26 am

Hello everyone, I gotta ask what is that blob south of Cuba?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-abi
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Re: Area south of Cuba

#5 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:13 am

That is from what was in the SW Caribbean which and had been posted about a day or so ago in this forum... does look rather interesting on both the IR and Vis sat loops this morning.... just checked the latest model runs and nothing imminent develops from that region... lalso ooks to be in a pretty high shear environment att, also big upper low spinning in the central GOM... guess we'll have to see if its persistent and go from there...
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Re: Area south of Cuba

#6 Postby wxman22 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:29 am

Some of the Euro ensembles have been developing it fwiw.

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Re: Area south of Cuba

#7 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:35 am

Indeed. It does look interesting.
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Re: Area south of Cuba

#8 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:48 am

Convection in this area since yesterday is due to UL divergence and a TW that came out of S.A. There's very little low level vorticity at the moment, mostly at the mid levels. This may have to be watched once it reaches the southern GOM.

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Re: Area south of Cuba

#9 Postby wxman22 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 7:48 am

I also noticed that the 0z Operational run of the Euro tries to close the system off as it nears the middle Texas coast but keeps it broad late this week.
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Re: Area south of Cuba

#10 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:37 am

Even looking better right now since early this morning... some hints of low level clouds south east of the system beginning to stream from the ESE to the WNW towards the core of the convection...
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Re: Area south of Cuba

#11 Postby Frank P » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:41 am

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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#12 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:48 am

I notice there is another thread started after this one on this area. Might want to shut down one or the other.
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Re: Area south of Cuba

#13 Postby caneman » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:52 am

[quote="Frank P"]Even looking better right now since early this morning... some hints of low level clouds south east of the system beginning to stream from the ESE to the WNW towards the core of the convection...[/quote

Agree. Needs to be watched]
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Re: Area south of Cuba

#14 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 09, 2018 10:07 am

Threads have been merged.
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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#15 Postby wxman22 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:12 am

Fwiw the 12z Canadian develops it right as it nears the South Texas coast.

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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#16 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:12 am

12z ICON shows it developing into a tropical depression before moving inland near Matagorda Bay, and the 12z Canadian now shows a closed low before moving it inland near South Padre Island.

This morning's model runs seem to be trended towards the Euro in possibly showing some development of this wave in the western Gulf.
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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#17 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 11:12 am

wow tropical going very active who say going weak hurr season because aug was slow
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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#18 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:28 pm

12zUKMET has an area of low pressure just east of Brownsville by Thursday Morning.

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Re: SW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:32 pm

The combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
Upper-level winds could become somewhat more conducive for some
development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico in a
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf: 2 PM TWO: 0/20

#20 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:58 pm

Image

This is just a downright insane map. Please Stop.
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