NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

[Dean4Storms]

You peeps over TX way should keep up with the area now blossoming in the SW Carib. Sea which if you track it on the Euro heads for the Western Gulf as the week wears on. There are a few members of the ECM ENS that go on to develop this in the Western Gulf but regardless looks like an increase in rainfall for eastern TX.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=watl&product=vis

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS and Canadian are showing a bit more vorticity with this wave as it moves into the western Gulf late this week. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

[Clearcloudz]

The reliable ECMWF ensembles continue to indicate a low chance of TC formation from the southern Gulf of Mexico to the NE Mexican/Texas coasts early/middle part of next week. Best not to ignore the ECMWF when it presents a very consistent theme. #TropicalUpdate #tropics

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1038548591793594368

[CW0262]

Hello everyone, I gotta ask what is that blob south of Cuba?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-abi

[Frank P]

That is from what was in the SW Caribbean which and had been posted about a day or so ago in this forum... does look rather interesting on both the IR and Vis sat loops this morning.... just checked the latest model runs and nothing imminent develops from that region... lalso ooks to be in a pretty high shear environment att, also big upper low spinning in the central GOM... guess we'll have to see if its persistent and go from there...

[wxman22]

Some of the Euro ensembles have been developing it fwiw.

[caneman]

Indeed. It does look interesting.

[NDG]

Convection in this area since yesterday is due to UL divergence and a TW that came out of S.A. There's very little low level vorticity at the moment, mostly at the mid levels. This may have to be watched once it reaches the southern GOM.

[wxman22]

I also noticed that the 0z Operational run of the Euro tries to close the system off as it nears the middle Texas coast but keeps it broad late this week.

[Frank P]

Even looking better right now since early this morning... some hints of low level clouds south east of the system beginning to stream from the ESE to the WNW towards the core of the convection...

[Frank P]

[Dean4Storms]

I notice there is another thread started after this one on this area. Might want to shut down one or the other.

[caneman]

[quote="Frank P"]Even looking better right now since early this morning... some hints of low level clouds south east of the system beginning to stream from the ESE to the WNW towards the core of the convection...[/quote

Agree. Needs to be watched]

[tolakram]

Threads have been merged.

[wxman22]

Fwiw the 12z Canadian develops it right as it nears the South Texas coast.

[South Texas Storms]

12z ICON shows it developing into a tropical depression before moving inland near Matagorda Bay, and the 12z Canadian now shows a closed low before moving it inland near South Padre Island.

This morning's model runs seem to be trended towards the Euro in possibly showing some development of this wave in the western Gulf.

[floridasun78]

wow tropical going very active who say going weak hurr season because aug was slow

[Rgv20]

12zUKMET has an area of low pressure just east of Brownsville by Thursday Morning.

[cycloneye]

The combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
Upper-level winds could become somewhat more conducive for some
development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico in a
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[BobHarlem]

This is just a downright insane map. Please Stop.