NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

#61 Postby **Frank P** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:28 am

Interesting system showing up on the latest NAM run at h59... looks like a piece of the energy from the Car trying to develop and move towards LA coast..

SoupBone · #62 Postby **SoupBone** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:30 am

Steve wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Steve wrote:Joe B has it as a 45/50knot tropical storm hitting the TX Coast on Friday. It looks like he's riding the ECMWF on this one. I guess this would be Tropical Storm Joyce if he's right. He did note that he thinks 15-20" of rain for down there.

lrak,

Not sure how much you've been paying attention to this one, but it looks like a fairly big ticket rain item.
-------------------------------------------
Not to be outdone, he's also calling for Florence to be the all time worst natural disaster in the Appalachian Mountains as it should come in with the strength of Hazel and Hugo but then rain itself out over the next several days into NC/SC and possibly SW VA. We'll see how that goes, but obviously he's in doomsday mode.

So the Euro is Upper Mexico/South Texas landfall?

Euro's got it sort of disorganized coming in to South Texas anywhere from King's Ranch up toward Corpus Christi or so (maybe as far up as Victoria when its inland). But you'll notice that it's tighter at 144 which is an indication it sees it getting stronger as it moves into the coast.

120
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 000&fh=120

144
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 000&fh=144

Rain, rain, and more rain. At least those areas could use the rain.

#63 Postby **mcheer23** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:22 am

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 25.4N 96.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2018 25.4N 96.2W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2018 26.4N 97.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2018 27.0N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2018 27.6N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2018 28.0N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

Nimbus · #64 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:23 am

Looks like a circulation may be forming way down by 17.5N 87W.
Convection is all sheared further north but if there is low surface pressure crossing the Yucatan might be a lower shear environment ahead?

#65 Postby **oldframe** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:26 am

I'm thinking that the new USDM map to be released tomorrow will show a big reduction in drought coverage and severity across south and eastern Texas. Here in Houston, I've had 3 inches of rain in the last 36 hours. We CERTAINLY do not need a tropical system of any sort, as we're dealing with a huge swath of tropical moisture over the next few days as it is. Currently under a flash flood watch. If we get another round of significant rainfall late this week, I'll be boating to work!

#66 Postby **mcheer23** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:37 am

I'd go 10/50 when the next TWO is out...

#67 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 11:49 am

Lots of convergence and divergence in the GoH. Very little vortices at any level though. Shear induced for sure but might be changing.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic.php

SoupBone · #68 Postby **SoupBone** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:01 pm

GFS says 'hey South Texas, y'all want some rain'

stormlover2013 · #69 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:03 pm

Lol gfs been struggling

davidiowx · #70 Postby **davidiowx** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:07 pm

#71 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:12 pm

INVEST 95L is up

NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

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