NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

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Nimbus
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#21 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:03 pm

There are some recent outflow boundaries but convection is on the rise as are the percentages for development.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#22 Postby mcheer23 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:09 pm

20 percent...

i bet this will be our next invest
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#23 Postby mcheer23 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:24 pm

EURO is a little more bullish with this system.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#24 Postby Astromanía » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:33 pm

We need the rain a lot in NE Mexico, so I hope this comes to us
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#25 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:35 pm

mcheer23 wrote:EURO is a little more bullish with this system.


And taking its sweet time also....looks like when it reaches the western gulf the steering currents become very weak.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#26 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:29 pm

Thru 5 days the 12ECMWF Ensembles came in more aggressive on development chances..
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#27 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:43 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Thru 5 days the 12ECMWF Ensembles came in more aggressive on development chances..


Man, this thread sure is quiet for something that’s in the W. Caribbean and about to enter the Gulf. I guess everyone’s focus is on Florence.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#28 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:45 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Rgv20 wrote:Thru 5 days the 12ECMWF Ensembles came in more aggressive on development chances..


Man, this thread sure is quiet for something that’s in the W. Caribbean and about to enter the Gulf. I guess everyone’s focus is on Florence.



Florence, but also that it's development chances into a depression are only around 20%. I bet if you get a few models being a little more aggressive, you'll see people perking up. The area it's possibly heading to could use some rain too. Let's hope that's all it is. 8-)
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#29 Postby ForexTidbits » Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:55 pm

12Z ECMWF ensembles (more members showing development of a tropical storm)

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/902-w-263-n/2018090912-240.html
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#30 Postby setxweathergal64 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:36 pm

If this does end up moving into the gulf. What will that do to the track of Isaac if anything?
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#31 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 3:44 pm

If this develops, AND the high latitude storm develops into Joyce and Kirk (either order), I believe it would be the first time ever there were 5 active storms at once in the Atlantic basin (at least in the satellite era).
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:16 pm

8 PM TWO:

1. The combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward to
northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan peninsula during the next couple of days, with little or no
development expected due to unfavorable upper-level winds and land
interaction. However, upper-level winds are forecast to become a
little more conducive for development when the system moves across
the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf: 8 PM TWO: 0/30

#33 Postby ForexTidbits » Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:24 pm

ECMWF is the model to beat when it comes to predicting genesis. And it’s now signaling a 50-50 shot of TC formation in the Gulf of Mexico from the tropical wave currently over the NW Caribbean Sea #TropicalUpdate #tropics

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1038929528272420864


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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#34 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:10 pm

This area is looking very interesting already. I must admit that it has sneaked up on me. I’ve been watching Flo and Isaac.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#35 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:17 pm

MississippiWx wrote:This area is looking very interesting already. I must admit that it has sneaked up on me. I’ve been watching Flo and Isaac.


Same here. There's so much going on right now that it suddenly feels busier than any particular day of the 2017 season. We'll see what happens with this system but hopefully nothing more than a Tropical Storm.

I think the way seasonal forecasts are presented to the public needs to be changed. Everyone I've spoken to about the tropics this summer assumed a quiet season and yet here we are today. It's all about steering patterns and timing not the gross number of systems but most people miss that point.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#36 Postby Blinhart » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:19 pm

I could see this invested as 95L at the next TWD.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#37 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 09, 2018 8:46 pm

Nice mid level vorticity has developed, this is similar how Gordon developed, but stronger easterly winds underneath this will make it hard for this to develop in the short term until it gets closer to the Yucatan P or over the GOM.

Image
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#38 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:02 pm

NDG wrote:Nice mid level vorticity has developed, this is similar how Gordon developed, but stronger easterly winds underneath this will make it hard for this to develop in the short term until it gets closer to the Yucatan P or over the GOM.

Image


The low level flow just to the north is very tame. Should help it spin up as the trades rush in from the southeast and around the wave axis. I think it will be easier for it to close off a low eventually .
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#39 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:10 pm

NDG wrote:Nice mid level vorticity has developed, this is similar how Gordon developed, but stronger easterly winds underneath this will make it hard for this to develop in the short term until it gets closer to the Yucatan P or over the GOM.



What's the steering look like? So far, it looks like upper Mexico, Extreme South Texas.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#40 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Sep 09, 2018 9:32 pm

TWO has it up to 30% chance now.
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