NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf (Is INVEST 95L)

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Extratropical94
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#41 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:32 am

Remains at 0/30

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula during the next couple of
days with little or no development expected during that time.
However, upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more
conducive for development when the system moves across
the western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#42 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:26 am

Hmmmm, interesting. Each passing run of the Euro keeps getting stronger and stronger.

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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#43 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:37 am

Yeah, models are trending stronger with this area. You have to look at the 850mb/700mb representation to notice it though.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#44 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 1:38 am

MississippiWx wrote:Yeah, models are trending stronger with this area. You have to look at the 850mb/700mb representation to notice it though.


The GFS does nothing with it though.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#45 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:29 am

I have been keeping an eye on this area and looking at satellite imagery early this morning, this system to me is starting to show subtle signs of trying to develop . So much activity we are monitoring of course, but people in the Western or Northwest Gulf region need to keeo monitoring this in the next few days.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#46 Postby ForexTidbits » Mon Sep 10, 2018 5:54 am

Hate for it to be a one-man show, but those are the brakes. ECMWF and its ensembles show an increased likelihood of TC genesis over the central & northwestern Gulf of Mexico this week, w/ a possible TC at the Texas coast Sat. GFS out to lunch. Code red? #TropicalUpdate #tropics

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1039103073522778114


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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#47 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:32 am

Chances for this system to develop continue to increase.

NHC is up to 40% now.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND WESTERN CUBA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE THIS WEEK WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...LOW...10 PERCENT.
* FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 5 DAYS...MEDIUM...40 PERCENT.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#48 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 10, 2018 6:44 am

A definite increase from the Euro's ensembles on development, but most of them remain weak.

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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#49 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:19 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff regarding the NW Caribbean Disturbance:

Increasing chances for tropical cyclone development over the central and NW Gulf of Mexico mid to late week

Residents along the NW Gulf of Mexico coast from NE MX to SW LA should closely monitor the progress of this system.

A tropical wave axis over the NW Caribbean Sea is interacting with an upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico producing numerous showers and thunderstorms. Surface observations in the Caribbean do not indicate that a surface low pressure system is forming and currently upper level SW/WSW winds from the upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico are not favorable for development. As the tropical wave moves NW into the central Gulf of Mexico the upper level shear is forecast to gradually weaken allowing the better upper level conditions.

The GFS and CMC models bring a weak surface reflection toward the lower TX coast late this week while the ECWMF develops a stronger surface low and has a track further northward along the TX coast. The ECWMF ensembles are increasingly showing higher development potential with over 50% of the members now indicating development.

An upper level trough will remain over TX with strong high pressure over the NE US and western Atlantic which will continue a general WNW/NE steering track of the feature toward the central and NW Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend.

For now will maintain high rain chances already in the forecast for Thursday onward into the weekend, but the threat for heavy rainfall appears to be increasing toward the end of the week regardless if the feature develops or not. With grounds becoming increasingly saturated the threat for flooding would be increasing should any sort of tropical system head for TX.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#50 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:25 am

srainhoutx wrote:Monday morning briefing from Jeff regarding the NW Caribbean Disturbance:

Increasing chances for tropical cyclone development over the central and NW Gulf of Mexico mid to late week

Residents along the NW Gulf of Mexico coast from NE MX to SW LA should closely monitor the progress of this system.

A tropical wave axis over the NW Caribbean Sea is interacting with an upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico producing numerous showers and thunderstorms. Surface observations in the Caribbean do not indicate that a surface low pressure system is forming and currently upper level SW/WSW winds from the upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico are not favorable for development. As the tropical wave moves NW into the central Gulf of Mexico the upper level shear is forecast to gradually weaken allowing the better upper level conditions.

The GFS and CMC models bring a weak surface reflection toward the lower TX coast late this week while the ECWMF develops a stronger surface low and has a track further northward along the TX coast. The ECWMF ensembles are increasingly showing higher development potential with over 50% of the members now indicating development.

An upper level trough will remain over TX with strong high pressure over the NE US and western Atlantic which will continue a general WNW/NE steering track of the feature toward the central and NW Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend.

For now will maintain high rain chances already in the forecast for Thursday onward into the weekend, but the threat for heavy rainfall appears to be increasing toward the end of the week regardless if the feature develops or not. With grounds becoming increasingly saturated the threat for flooding would be increasing should any sort of tropical system head for TX.


Interesting in that within just several days, someone will be impacted, but no certainty at all for intensity, and none for track. I mean Northern Mexico to SW Louisiana? :lol:
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#51 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:39 am

It's also sitting in 40kts of shear that extends all the way to the Texas coast. Let's hope that keeps this thing in check and remains strong.

Image
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#52 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:35 am

Nothing but SE winds underneath the mid level vorticity, there a slight surface vorticity near Belize this morning, this will be the area to watch as it tracks NW towards the southern GOM.
Models show that UL conditions over it will improve when it nears the western GOM by Thursday-Saturday and the UL trough is out of the picture.

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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#53 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:47 am

Joe B has it as a 45/50knot tropical storm hitting the TX Coast on Friday. It looks like he's riding the ECMWF on this one. I guess this would be Tropical Storm Joyce if he's right. He did note that he thinks 15-20" of rain for down there.

lrak,

Not sure how much you've been paying attention to this one, but it looks like a fairly big ticket rain item.
-------------------------------------------
Not to be outdone, he's also calling for Florence to be the all time worst natural disaster in the Appalachian Mountains as it should come in with the strength of Hazel and Hugo but then rain itself out over the next several days into NC/SC and possibly SW VA. We'll see how that goes, but obviously he's in doomsday mode.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#54 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:17 am

Steve wrote:Joe B has it as a 45/50knot tropical storm hitting the TX Coast on Friday. It looks like he's riding the ECMWF on this one. I guess this would be Tropical Storm Joyce if he's right. He did note that he thinks 15-20" of rain for down there..



Im thinking about the same.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#55 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 9:27 am

mcheer23 wrote:
Steve wrote:Joe B has it as a 45/50knot tropical storm hitting the TX Coast on Friday. It looks like he's riding the ECMWF on this one. I guess this would be Tropical Storm Joyce if he's right. He did note that he thinks 15-20" of rain for down there..



Im thinking about the same.


It looks pretty good for what it is right now down in the W Caribbean. It looks like one of those situations where it's butted up against an ULL to its west and has to wait for that to resolve some way with a pattern reversal. As you know, that often leads to strengthening up to landfall when it comes to the TX or Mex Coasts. 15-20" is a heck of a lot of rain though, and it would be at the end of the week if you guys are right.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#56 Postby SoupBone » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:11 am

Steve wrote:Joe B has it as a 45/50knot tropical storm hitting the TX Coast on Friday. It looks like he's riding the ECMWF on this one. I guess this would be Tropical Storm Joyce if he's right. He did note that he thinks 15-20" of rain for down there.

lrak,

Not sure how much you've been paying attention to this one, but it looks like a fairly big ticket rain item.
-------------------------------------------
Not to be outdone, he's also calling for Florence to be the all time worst natural disaster in the Appalachian Mountains as it should come in with the strength of Hazel and Hugo but then rain itself out over the next several days into NC/SC and possibly SW VA. We'll see how that goes, but obviously he's in doomsday mode.


So the Euro is Upper Mexico/South Texas landfall?
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#57 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:15 am

SoupBone wrote:
Steve wrote:Joe B has it as a 45/50knot tropical storm hitting the TX Coast on Friday. It looks like he's riding the ECMWF on this one. I guess this would be Tropical Storm Joyce if he's right. He did note that he thinks 15-20" of rain for down there.

lrak,

Not sure how much you've been paying attention to this one, but it looks like a fairly big ticket rain item.
-------------------------------------------
Not to be outdone, he's also calling for Florence to be the all time worst natural disaster in the Appalachian Mountains as it should come in with the strength of Hazel and Hugo but then rain itself out over the next several days into NC/SC and possibly SW VA. We'll see how that goes, but obviously he's in doomsday mode.


So the Euro is Upper Mexico/South Texas landfall?


The 0z Euro had landfall around the San Antonio Bay/Matagorda Bay area earlier which would be a mid TX coast hit.
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#58 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:19 am

Euro has north of corpus
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#59 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:20 am

SoupBone wrote:
Steve wrote:Joe B has it as a 45/50knot tropical storm hitting the TX Coast on Friday. It looks like he's riding the ECMWF on this one. I guess this would be Tropical Storm Joyce if he's right. He did note that he thinks 15-20" of rain for down there.

lrak,

Not sure how much you've been paying attention to this one, but it looks like a fairly big ticket rain item.
-------------------------------------------
Not to be outdone, he's also calling for Florence to be the all time worst natural disaster in the Appalachian Mountains as it should come in with the strength of Hazel and Hugo but then rain itself out over the next several days into NC/SC and possibly SW VA. We'll see how that goes, but obviously he's in doomsday mode.


So the Euro is Upper Mexico/South Texas landfall?


Euro's got it sort of disorganized coming in to South Texas anywhere from King's Ranch up toward Corpus Christi or so (maybe as far up as Victoria when its inland). But you'll notice that it's tighter at 144 which is an indication it sees it getting stronger as it moves into the coast.

120
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 000&fh=120

144
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 000&fh=144
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Re: NW Carib. Sea toward Western Gulf

#60 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 10, 2018 10:24 am

Also NAM is starting to pick up on it to on the 12z run. Obviously this takes a backseat to Florence, but it's notable just the same. It shows landfall Thursday night.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1012&fh=84
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