2018 Cyclones Retirement

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CrazyC83
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2018 Cyclones Retirement

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:27 am

I know it is early, but it looks like we will need a new female F name for 2024.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#2 Postby HurricaneRyan » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:24 am

Florence is definitely making a run for finally having all the original F names replaced.
I wonder what Lane's chances for retirement are actually since someone mentioned it in that thread after hearing about the rainfall totals. The damage and deaths is relatively low though, but Hawaii doesn't get often. Also makes me wonder if Olivia will cause any bad damage.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#3 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:24 am

Fransica
Frederica
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#4 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:41 am

Here's what I have in mind. I've denoted names that are similar to current names; there are occassions that retired names are replaced by names that are similar to other extant names.

Freya, Freda/Frieda (similar to Fred), Farah, Fern (could be too similar to Fernanda), Felice/Feliz (variants of Felicia but similar to Felix), Faith (?, it was just replaced---no significant impacts in 1966), Francelia, Francine, Fatima, or their variants
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#5 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 11, 2018 10:19 am

I like Felice. I just realized the Epac has Norma and Norman on the list so storms with similar names are apparently not off limits at all; having Dora and others, Atlantic retirement isn't even a limiting factor I guess. Francelia, Faith, Freda, Flavia. Or do the Frederic-to-eventually-Fred thing and replace it with Fiorenza
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#6 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:03 pm

I think similar names are only a problem if they would be used in the same year and so could confuse people if there were two storms active with similar names at the same time -- which means here that you wouldn't want to replace "Florence" with Fabia or Fabiola, since Fabio is the EPAC "F" name for this year.

Faith is definitely the most common "F" name in the US which hasn't been retired and is not on another list already. Fallon, Fawn, Fern, Flavia, Fonda. Francine, or Frieda/Frida would also be good choices.

I see someone mentioned "Francelia" above. There was a Hurricane Francelia back in 1969 which caused 271 deaths in Belize and Guatemala. The name probably should have been officially retired though it wasn't. I still wonder how that name got on the 1969 list in the first place. It's just about the most unusual and obscure name ever given to an Atlantic hurricane. I am old enough to remember Walter Cronkite having a lot of trouble pronouncing it back when he was reporting on it in 1969. It's certainly not a name I'd recommend as a replacement for Florence. :)
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#7 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 11, 2018 12:31 pm

And ironically, both 'Fran' AND 'Celia' are names that ARE retired, so combined with the damage their combination name created, prolly a no-go :cheesy:
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#8 Postby Torino » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:12 pm

Frida/Freda/Frieda, Felicity, Felice, Farrah, Faith, Fern, Fleur, Flavia, Fanny, Franny, Faustine, Francine, Fina.
I think "Felicity" is the top choice.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#9 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:53 pm

Just not Fanny, please! :eek:
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 8:14 pm

Female F names NOT available: Fay, Felicia, Fernanda, Fifi, Fiona, Flora, Flossie, Fran, Frances

I'd replace it with Faith, Farrah, Fern or Fatima.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#11 Postby Chris90 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 1:48 am

I'm partial to Florrie. I do like Freya, Freda, or Fyodora though as well.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 14, 2018 10:53 pm

It also means that F will be the first letter to have all its original names retired. I is the only other letter with only one original remaining (Isaac, which should survive to 2024), while D and G each have two originals left.

Remaining originals:

A - Ana, Arlene, Alberto, Arthur
B - Bonnie, Bret, Beryl, Barry, Bertha
C - Claudette, Cindy, Chris, Chantal
D - Danielle, Debby
E - Earl, Emily, Ernesto, Erin, Edouard
F - Florence
G - Gert, Gabrielle
H - Henri, Hermine, Helene
I - Isaac
J - Jose, Jerry, Josephine
K - Kate, Karl, Karen
L - Larry, Lisa, Leslie
M - Mindy, Michael, Marco
N - Nicholas, Nicole, Nadine, Nana
O - Odette, Ophelia, Oscar, Omar
P - Peter, Paula, Philippe, Patty, Pablo
R - Rose*, Richard, Rafael, Rene*
S - Sam*, Shary, Sebastien, Sally*
T - Teresa*, Tammy, Tony, Tanya, Teddy*
V - Victor*, Virginie*, Vince, Valerie*, Van*, Vicky* (only letter with no retirements)
W - Wanda*, Walter*, William*, Wendy*, Wilfred*

*Never been used
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#13 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:43 am

Since Florence hit as a cat1 it is possible it isn't retired!
Here is a list of hurricanes to support this.

Hermine wasn't retired(2016)
Alex wasn't retired(2010)
Dolly wasn't retired(2008)
Omar wasn't retired(2008)
Humberto wasn't retired(2007)
Gaston wasn't retired(2004)
Claudette wasn't retired (2003)
Danny wasn't retired (1997)

I'd say 66% chance of retirement.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#14 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:53 am

Sciencerocks wrote:Since Florence hit as a cat1 it is possible it isn't retired!
Here is a list of hurricanes to support this.

Hermine wasn't retired(2016)
Alex wasn't retired(2010)
Dolly wasn't retired(2008)
Omar wasn't retired(2008)
Humberto wasn't retired(2007)
Gaston wasn't retired(2004)
Claudette wasn't retired (2003)
Danny wasn't retired (1997)

I'd say 66% chance of retirement.

Isaac of 2012 is another good example. Stalled over SE LA for awhile as a Cat 1 and caused > $1 billion in damages, but no retirement.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#15 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:13 am

CrazyC83 wrote:It also means that F will be the first letter to have all its original names retired. I is the only other letter with only one original remaining (Isaac, which should survive to 2024), while D and G each have two originals left.

Remaining originals:

A - Ana, Arlene, Alberto, Arthur
B - Bonnie, Bret, Beryl, Barry, Bertha
C - Claudette, Cindy, Chris, Chantal
D - Danielle, Debby
E - Earl, Emily, Ernesto, Erin, Edouard
F - Florence
G - Gert, Gabrielle
H - Henri, Hermine, Helene
I - Isaac
J - Jose, Jerry, Josephine
K - Kate, Karl, Karen
L - Larry, Lisa, Leslie
M - Mindy, Michael, Marco
N - Nicholas, Nicole, Nadine, Nana
O - Odette, Ophelia, Oscar, Omar
P - Peter, Paula, Philippe, Patty, Pablo
R - Rose*, Richard, Rafael, Rene*
S - Sam*, Shary, Sebastien, Sally*
T - Teresa*, Tammy, Tony, Tanya, Teddy*
V - Victor*, Virginie*, Vince, Valerie*, Van*, Vicky* (only letter with no retirements)
W - Wanda*, Walter*, William*, Wendy*, Wilfred*

*Never been used


It's kind of unfortunate that F managed to beat I in getting all its names retired. With all the abuse that the letter I has received these past few decades, I think it should've deserved this honor. But since the case with Florence is very similar to the case with Isaac (2012), I can't guarantee that F has won just yet (although it appears very likely since Isaac was overshadowed by Sandy in 2012).

Also, if Lane is retired in the EPAC, I'm really hoping they'll replace it with Luigi, especially since Mario will be making his EPAC debut next year. It's too good of an opportunity to pass up! I know this is a long shot, but Ana, Elsa, and Olaf will be together on the 2021 naming lists, so who knows?
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#16 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:38 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Sciencerocks wrote:Since Florence hit as a cat1 it is possible it isn't retired!
Here is a list of hurricanes to support this.

Hermine wasn't retired(2016)
Alex wasn't retired(2010)
Dolly wasn't retired(2008)
Omar wasn't retired(2008)
Humberto wasn't retired(2007)
Gaston wasn't retired(2004)
Claudette wasn't retired (2003)
Danny wasn't retired (1997)

I'd say 66% chance of retirement.

Isaac of 2012 is another good example. Stalled over SE LA for awhile as a Cat 1 and caused > $1 billion in damages, but no retirement.


I really felt Isaac from 2012 should have been retired. Wasn't that strong at landfall, but it did decent damage (similar to Florence, Isaac's pressure was very low for a 70 kt hurricane). Though part of that is because I wanted that last original I name to get retired. Unless Isaac 2018 pulls a Harvey, we got to wait another 6 years.

Regarding Florence, if this hurricane quickly moved inland and dissipated, it probably wouldn't have been retired. But from the flooding damage already and what's to come, its fate is probably sealed.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#17 Postby zhukm29 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:24 pm

Just a little fun fact regarding retirements, since F will likely be the first letter to have all its original names replaced. It may seem odd that F managed to get all of its names retired first, especially since the last F storm to get retired was Felix, which occurred over a decade ago. During this time period, we had a whopping five I storms get retired (and this doesn't even count most of the 2000s)!

It turns out that F just got lucky: since the current naming lists began their usage, all the F names that were retired were original (with the exception of Fabian, which had replaced Frederic). Florence seems to be continuing this trend. That is, all but one of the replacement F names have survived since 1979!

On the other hand, I names were met with a whole bunch of double or triple retirements, with brand new names often being tossed after their first usage. We had Iris, which was replaced with Ingrid, which itself was replaced with Imelda after just two uses. Then we had Isidore, which was replaced with Ike, which was itself retired and replaced with Isaias after just one season. Then we had Isabel, which was replaced with Ida, and then Ivan, which was replaced with Igor and then Ian after one usage. And then we had Irene, which was replaced with Irma (and as we all know, Irma didn't last long like her I name counterparts). So Isaac is the lone holdout after all these retirements - in fact, I would argue that he got snubbed in 2012 and that I should have been the first to retire all its names. However, given I's reputation, Isaac's time will definitely come soon, even if it doesn't happen this year.

Nonetheless, thinking about it, it would be pretty funny if Isaac lasted several more decades on the list while all his I name counterparts face retirement after retirement. Imagine going through a dozen more I name retirements with Isaac still staying on the list! It would be a battle between two notorious forces: the fleeting existence of Atlantic names that begin with I and the persistence of names on List IV...

:Can:

Also, of all the letters of the alphabet, why did it have to be I? It's funny since we have so many more I retirements than H or J retirements... and we have so many more H and J names than I names to choose from!
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#18 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:04 pm

Sciencerocks wrote:Since Florence hit as a cat1 it is possible it isn't retired!
Here is a list of hurricanes to support this.

Hermine wasn't retired(2016)
Alex wasn't retired(2010)
Dolly wasn't retired(2008)
Omar wasn't retired(2008)
Humberto wasn't retired(2007)
Gaston wasn't retired(2004)
Claudette wasn't retired (2003)
Danny wasn't retired (1997)

I'd say 66% chance of retirement.


Intensity has little to nothing to do with retirement. There have been cat 5 hurricanes that were not retired. Storms are retired due to immense damage to life and property. An example is cat 1 Nate of last year, which killed around 45 people and caused at least half a billion in damages, and was retired. When Florence causes rivers to crest around monday, flooding will be worse than Matthew and potentially worse than Floyd in areas. Considering that on top of the unofficial death toll of 11, this storm's retirement is almost certain.
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Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#19 Postby Torino » Sun Sep 16, 2018 1:15 pm

2018 cyclones retirement (so far):

Australia: Marcus (retired);
South Pacific: Gita, Hola;
WPac: Mangkhut;
Atlantic: Florence.

Those are the guaranteed (imo).
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#20 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:47 pm

Lane is the only storm in the EPAC that could possibly have a case, since Hawaii doesn't get as many threats as mainland US. It was the second highest rainfall total after Harvey. But other than that I didn't hear much on damage from it.
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