2018 Cyclones Retirement

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
GSBHurricane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#101 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:26 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:Willa could make a run for retirement too.

If it makes landfall as a major then it's very possible.
0 likes   

User avatar
EquusStorm
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Age: 28
Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
Location: Jasper and Foley, AL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#102 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:20 am

Just for example, Hurricane Tara in 1961 killed 436 in Mexico, but that name is on the current lists (used a few weeks ago, even) That said, more recently they've asked retirement for slightly more Pacific hits than in the past, but still very inconsistent.
1 likes   
...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

GSBHurricane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#103 Postby GSBHurricane » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:39 am

EquusStorm wrote:Just for example, Hurricane Tara in 1961 killed 436 in Mexico, but that name is on the current lists (used a few weeks ago, even) That said, more recently they've asked retirement for slightly more Pacific hits than in the past, but still very inconsistent.

Before 1978/1979, the NHC and PHC had the final day about retirement of names. So countries like Mexico had little or no say when it came to retirement.
1 likes   

HurricaneRyan
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 617
Age: 25
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2010 3:05 pm

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#104 Postby HurricaneRyan » Mon Oct 22, 2018 1:19 pm

Well to be fair, they were on top of their game with retirements in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Nothing in the last two years warranted it.

Willa may very well be the next contender
0 likes   
I'm wide awake

Torino
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#105 Postby Torino » Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:08 pm

Suggestions to replace Willa:
Winona, Wilva, Wenda, Wilda, Wilvenia, Willene, Willow, Wiltrud, Waldette, Wiebke, Wilhelma, Wilona, Wyn.
0 likes   

GSBHurricane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#106 Postby GSBHurricane » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:21 am

Torino wrote:Suggestions to replace Willa:
Winona, Wilva, Wenda, Wilda, Wilvenia, Willene, Willow, Wiltrud, Waldette, Wiebke, Wilhelma, Wilona, Wyn.

Also add Wanika, Wanetta, Wilabel, Wilfreda, and Willette
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 27434
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#107 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:19 am

If we have to replace Willa, these names are NOT available:

Wanda, Wendy, Whitney, Wilma, Winifred, Winnie

I'd probably go with Winona. It's pretty rare that we have to use W names anyway...and the only one in the Atlantic got retired...
0 likes   

Cleveland Kent Evans
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 160
Joined: Fri May 02, 2008 4:02 pm

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#108 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:45 am

Of course if Willa would be retired it would be at the request of Mexican authorities, and "W" is not a letter which starts traditional Spanish names.

The given name dictionary from Mexico I own only has Walburga, Waltruda, and Wilfrida as possibilities.

The name dictionary from Spain I own has many more, but they are basically all names of obscure Germanic saints who probably have hardly ever had any namesakes in Spanish speaking countries. Wilgefortis, Wamba, Werburga, Widrada, Wilfretuda, Wisila, Witburga, Witesinda, Witiza, Wivina, Wulfila, Wutfilda, etc.

So they probably will go with something suggested to them by an English speaker. :)
1 likes   

Torino
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#109 Postby Torino » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:21 pm

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:Of course if Willa would be retired it would be at the request of Mexican authorities, and "W" is not a letter which starts traditional Spanish names.

The given name dictionary from Mexico I own only has Walburga, Waltruda, and Wilfrida as possibilities.

The name dictionary from Spain I own has many more, but they are basically all names of obscure Germanic saints who probably have hardly ever had any namesakes in Spanish speaking countries. Wilgefortis, Wamba, Werburga, Widrada, Wilfretuda, Wisila, Witburga, Witesinda, Witiza, Wivina, Wulfila, Wutfilda, etc.

So they probably will go with something suggested to them by an English speaker. :)


Walfrida or Wilfrida would be real possibilities, in case of Willa's retirement. I think the EPac lists should have more Hispanic names, or at least names that could normally be used in Spanish-speaking countries, such as Barbara, Linda, and Kevin.
0 likes   

Michele B
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 529
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:08 am
Location: SWFL

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#110 Postby Michele B » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:12 pm

My thinking would be that the earlier names in the alphabet (A-F) would ALL have reached their "retirement" sooner than the later letters, simply by virtue of having been used more often.....

I don't think I remember - as a kid - that hurricanes went so far into the alphabet each year as they do now.
0 likes   
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 986
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#111 Postby Kazmit » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:09 pm

Michele B wrote:My thinking would be that the earlier names in the alphabet (A-F) would ALL have reached their "retirement" sooner than the later letters, simply by virtue of having been used more often.....

I don't think I remember - as a kid - that hurricanes went so far into the alphabet each year as they do now.

But names earlier in the alphabet are used during the first couple of months of the season, which are usually not too active (especially in the Atlantic). Usually the middle names are used the most as they tend to coincide with the peak of the season.
0 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

SconnieCane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 137
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#112 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:51 pm

Kazmit wrote:
Michele B wrote:My thinking would be that the earlier names in the alphabet (A-F) would ALL have reached their "retirement" sooner than the later letters, simply by virtue of having been used more often.....

I don't think I remember - as a kid - that hurricanes went so far into the alphabet each year as they do now.

But names earlier in the alphabet are used during the first couple of months of the season, which are usually not too active (especially in the Atlantic). Usually the middle names are used the most as they tend to coincide with the peak of the season.


If the first months were not active, the early names would still be there to be used when peak season rolls around. You are correct though in that the names in the middle of the alphabet are more likely to come up during peak season and thus more likely to coincide with more violent, impactful storms and be retired.

Some early letter names like Alicia, Allen, Andrew, Bob, Charley and Dennis have been retired. Florence likely will be this year, and IMO Emily should have been after the 2005 iteration. However it usually takes a year with a quiet early season, so the first named storms don't form until close to peak season (2005 and July major hurricane Dennis being the exception) to have a higher likelihood of getting a monster like Allen or Andrew right out of the gate.
1 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1453
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#113 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:55 pm

Don't think Willa is going to be retired. Haven't heard of any bad damage at Mexico. No deaths reported either.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

GSBHurricane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#114 Postby GSBHurricane » Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:10 am

galaxy401 wrote:Don't think Willa is going to be retired. Haven't heard of any bad damage at Mexico. No deaths reported either.

One word: Kenna
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1453
Age: 24
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#115 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:35 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Don't think Willa is going to be retired. Haven't heard of any bad damage at Mexico. No deaths reported either.

One word: Kenna

So far it seems the damage wasn't as bad as Kenna. Surprised that I haven't even heard of anything at all from Mexico after Willa. Probably because it struck a remote region.
0 likes   
I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

User avatar
Hurricanehink
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1897
Joined: Sun Nov 16, 2003 2:05 pm
Location: New Jersey

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#116 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:47 am

galaxy401 wrote:Don't think Willa is going to be retired. Haven't heard of any bad damage at Mexico. No deaths reported either.


There are six deaths. Most of the information that that has come out is in Spanish, which talks about pretty bad damage and flooding in Nayarit and Sinaloa. I think Willa will be retired.
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 901
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#117 Postby Buck » Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:39 am

It's harder to predict Eastern Pacific retirements because it is almost exclusively Mexico's decision and they have retired some that had a lesser impact than many storms that a lot of people expected to be retired and weren't (in both basins). But Willa could very well be retired.

Not sure about Lane... it was a big story, but don't know if the impact warrants it or not. Wouldn't be surprised either way.

Of course Florence and Michael will be retired. I would personally like to see Leslie retired because it is a fascinating storm and a landmark event for mainland Europe, and should be remembered as such. These storms CAN affect Europe albeit very rarely the way Leslie did.
1 likes   

GSBHurricane
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:12 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#118 Postby GSBHurricane » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:42 pm

Buck wrote:It's harder to predict Eastern Pacific retirements because it is almost exclusively Mexico's decision and they have retired some that had a lesser impact than many storms that a lot of people expected to be retired and weren't (in both basins). But Willa could very well be retired.

Not sure about Lane... it was a big story, but don't know if the impact warrants it or not. Wouldn't be surprised either way.

Of course Florence and Michael will be retired. I would personally like to see Leslie retired because it is a fascinating storm and a landmark event for mainland Europe, and should be remembered as such. These storms CAN affect Europe albeit very rarely the way Leslie did.

I think the only European nations on the committee are the UK, France, and the Netherlands. If that’s the case then I don’t think Leslie can even be asked for retirement since it didn’t affect those countries significantly.
0 likes   

Torino
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 37
Joined: Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 am

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#119 Postby Torino » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:06 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:I think the only European nations on the committee are the UK, France, and the Netherlands. If that’s the case then I don’t think Leslie can even be asked for retirement since it didn’t affect those countries significantly.


Portugal (for Azores and Madeira). They provided a report on Hurricane Alex (2016).
1 likes   

User avatar
Buck
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 901
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm

Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#120 Postby Buck » Fri Nov 16, 2018 5:40 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:
Buck wrote:It's harder to predict Eastern Pacific retirements because it is almost exclusively Mexico's decision and they have retired some that had a lesser impact than many storms that a lot of people expected to be retired and weren't (in both basins). But Willa could very well be retired.

Not sure about Lane... it was a big story, but don't know if the impact warrants it or not. Wouldn't be surprised either way.

Of course Florence and Michael will be retired. I would personally like to see Leslie retired because it is a fascinating storm and a landmark event for mainland Europe, and should be remembered as such. These storms CAN affect Europe albeit very rarely the way Leslie did.

I think the only European nations on the committee are the UK, France, and the Netherlands. If that’s the case then I don’t think Leslie can even be asked for retirement since it didn’t affect those countries significantly.


It definitely affected France... it contributed to floods that killed 12 in a village.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: HurricaneFan and 6 guests