2018 Cyclones Retirement

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AnnularCane
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#41 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:47 pm

I remember Frances was originally going to be taken off the list after 2004 at the request of France, so do you think they'll ever use a "Franc-" name again?

I'm kind of rooting for "Francie" as a replacement for Florence but it may not have a chance. :P
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#42 Postby Torino » Tue Sep 18, 2018 5:15 pm

AnnularCane wrote:I remember Frances was originally going to be taken off the list after 2004 at the request of France, so do you think they'll ever use a "Franc-" name again?

I'm kind of rooting for "Francie" as a replacement for Florence but it may not have a chance. :P


well, we have "Virginie" and the Virgin Islands, "Martin" and "Saint-Martin". Francine doesn't really remind France as much as Frances does.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#43 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:31 pm

So it has been widely noted that the Atlantic basin (at least in recent decades) has a bit of an ominous history with "I" names. Is it me, or does the WPAC have something similar going with "H" (Haiyan, Hagupit) and "M" (Megi, Meranti, Mangkhut) producing storms that become particularly intense and/or destructive? I realize their naming convention is different and doesn't start over with a new alphabetical list each year, but I still find it striking how often those two letters come up when discussing the more intense storms of the 2010s.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#44 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:47 pm

GSBHurricane wrote:Nate had a very understandable case from Costa for its retirement. According to their president, it caused the biggest crisis in Costa Rican history and the numbers support it (at least the worst since Cesar of 1996). Granted, I might not have voted for its retirement myself since Cesar killed more people in the country and caused more damage to Costa Rica than Nate when adjusted for GDP. Nevertheless I can understand why they would vote for it.

Now, onto Florence. It has a high chance for retirement but I don’t think it’s a lock. It turns out that the US didn’t request Matthew’s retirement, with $10 billion in damage and 49 people dead roughly where the worst of Florence hit (yet they requested Lili of 2002 and Joaquin a few years back). Instead it was Cuba and Haiti that asked for its retirement. This, along with Tomas in 2010 and possibly Felix and Noel Rica in 2007, shows that more than one country can ask for a name’s retirement if they feel it’s necessary. It’s possible the US didn’t see Matthew as bad for the Carolinas as say Hugo or Floyd or even Matthew’s Cuban and Haitian impacts. So far, Florence has killed about 25 people and it looks like it’ll have similar damage figures to Matthew ($10 billion or so, maybe up to $15 billion). If Matthew is any indication, Florence might not be a goner after all.


All the 2007 retirements came from France.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#45 Postby GSBHurricane » Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
HurricaneRyan wrote:Lane is the only storm in the EPAC that could possibly have a case, since Hawaii doesn't get as many threats as mainland US. It was the second highest rainfall total after Harvey. But other than that I didn't hear much on damage from it.


It wasn't that bad from a damage perspective from what I can tell. Iselle probably did more damage than Lane, as the heavy rain was concentrated in remote areas.

According to the NHC, Iselle caused between $148 million and $325 million in damage. Lane caused at least $200 million. If Iselle wasn’t retired, I’m not sure if Lane will be.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#46 Postby GSBHurricane » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:39 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
GSBHurricane wrote:Nate had a very understandable case from Costa for its retirement. According to their president, it caused the biggest crisis in Costa Rican history and the numbers support it (at least the worst since Cesar of 1996). Granted, I might not have voted for its retirement myself since Cesar killed more people in the country and caused more damage to Costa Rica than Nate when adjusted for GDP. Nevertheless I can understand why they would vote for it.

Now, onto Florence. It has a high chance for retirement but I don’t think it’s a lock. It turns out that the US didn’t request Matthew’s retirement, with $10 billion in damage and 49 people dead roughly where the worst of Florence hit (yet they requested Lili of 2002 and Joaquin a few years back). Instead it was Cuba and Haiti that asked for its retirement. This, along with Tomas in 2010 and possibly Felix and Noel Rica in 2007, shows that more than one country can ask for a name’s retirement if they feel it’s necessary. It’s possible the US didn’t see Matthew as bad for the Carolinas as say Hugo or Floyd or even Matthew’s Cuban and Haitian impacts. So far, Florence has killed about 25 people and it looks like it’ll have similar damage figures to Matthew ($10 billion or so, maybe up to $15 billion). If Matthew is any indication, Florence might not be a goner after all.


All the 2007 retirements came from France.

Never understood why France requested Felix and Noel.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#47 Postby BadLarry95 » Sat Sep 22, 2018 5:46 pm

So far:

Alberto 5%
Beryl 0%
Chris 0%
Debby 0%
Ernesto 0%
Florence 100% (see ya Flo)
Gordon 2%
Helene 10%
Isaac 0%
Joyce 0%
Kirk 0%
Leslie (rating pending on Portugal impacts)
Michael 100% (and good bye Mike)
Nadine 0%
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William
Last edited by BadLarry95 on Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#48 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:49 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:So far:

Alberto 5%
Beryl 0%
Chris 0%
Debby 0%
Ernesto 0%
Florence 100% (see ya Flo)
Gordon 2%
Helene 10%
Isaac 0%
Joyce 0%
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William


Why Helene 10%? It's impacts were only as an extratropical cyclone, and they were not particularly severe. If Ophelia wasn't retired, Helene won't be either.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#49 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:53 pm

Moody's Analytics has Florence's damage from $38 to $50 billion, and deaths ≥45. It's a lock despite what some are saying.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#50 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:50 am

Ubuntwo wrote:Moody's Analytics has Florence's damage from $38 to $50 billion, and deaths ≥45. It's a lock despite what some are saying.

If that’s true then it is a lock. I thought the figures are at roughly $10-15 billion. Plus I was basing it on the fact Matthew wasn’t requested by the US for similar figures in the same area.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#51 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:14 pm

Looks like we will be looking for a new M name for the third straight year.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#52 Postby Torino » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like we will be looking for a new M name for the third straight year.


M is the new I. That should leave Mindy and Marco as the only two original M names.
We had 4 retired I storms from 2001-2004. So watch out for Melissa.
Btw, I'd pick Morgan, Mitt or Maurice for 2024.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#53 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:43 am

Torino wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like we will be looking for a new M name for the third straight year.


M is the new I. That should leave Mindy and Marco as the only two original M names.
We had 4 retired I storms from 2001-2004. So watch out for Melissa.
Btw, I'd pick Morgan, Mitt or Maurice for 2024.


Marco has been used three times, but Mindy only once (we never got to M in 2009 or 2015).
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#54 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:30 pm

They should avoid Mitt if they want to avoid any political connotations, because Mitt Romney is just about the only person in the world who has that name on his birth certificate. Even for him, it's officially his middle name.

I would like Mason, Miles, or Marlon myself. I suspect the replacement will actually be Mark or Mike, though.

I think Mark would actually be a great name for a hurricane -- I personally wouldn't use it because it's too much like Marco and Martin, the other two male names on the Atlantic lists. But that isn't going to stop the meteorologists on the WMO committee, as they had no problem having Danny and Danielle along with Julian and Julia AND Nicholas and Nicole on 2021 and 2022 lists, not to mention having Paula and Paulette, Chris and Cristobal, and Vicky and Victor all on the lists. Whoever suggests names in the US weather establishment also seems to have a thing for replacement names that sound or look like what they are replacing -- they replaced Katrina and Rita with Katia and Rina, for gosh sakes, and last year went with Harold and Margot as replacements for Harvey and Maria, when they start with the same three letters. So I think Mike, Milo, and Myron have a chance just because the start with the same sound as Michael. :)
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#55 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:17 pm

If I picked the name, it would be Mason.

Male M names NOT available: Manuel, Marco, Mario, Martin, Marty, Matthew, Max, Mitch
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#56 Postby Torino » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:42 pm

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:They should avoid Mitt if they want to avoid any political connotations, because Mitt Romney is just about the only person in the world who has that name on his birth certificate. Even for him, it's officially his middle name.

I would like Mason, Miles, or Marlon myself. I suspect the replacement will actually be Mark or Mike, though.

I think Mark would actually be a great name for a hurricane -- I personally wouldn't use it because it's too much like Marco and Martin, the other two male names on the Atlantic lists. But that isn't going to stop the meteorologists on the WMO committee, as they had no problem having Danny and Danielle along with Julian and Julia AND Nicholas and Nicole on 2021 and 2022 lists, not to mention having Paula and Paulette, Chris and Cristobal, and Vicky and Victor all on the lists. Whoever suggests names in the US weather establishment also seems to have a thing for replacement names that sound or look like what they are replacing -- they replaced Katrina and Rita with Katia and Rina, for gosh sakes, and last year went with Harold and Margot as replacements for Harvey and Maria, when they start with the same three letters. So I think Mike, Milo, and Myron have a chance just because the start with the same sound as Michael. :)


Mark and Mike are too similar to Marco and Michael. Perhaps in the future, but for replacement names now it seems inappropriate.
Other options are Mel, Marcel, Mac, Monty, Malcolm, Marley, Matthias, Miguel, Milton, Morris.
But Morgan or Maurice are my top two choices. I like Marcel too.
Last edited by Torino on Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#57 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:46 pm

Kind of a fun fact, I guess: A few years ago I raised a couple of black swallowtail caterpillars to butterflies. I called them Morgan and Francie. I had said earlier I was rooting for Francie to replace Florence. So now I guess I will have to root for Morgan to replace Michael. :lol: (Francie was short for Françoise, but I don't think I see Florence being replaced with that.)

Barring that, Mark or Malcolm would be nice too. I don't really see them replacing Michael with Mike, although they might conceivably do that with another M name. They did use Fred (nickname for Frederic) as a replacement name, after all.
Last edited by AnnularCane on Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#58 Postby Cleveland Kent Evans » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:49 pm

Torino wrote:
Mark and Mike are too similar to Marco and Michael. Perhaps in the future, but for replacement names now it seems inappropriate.


Oh, I agree. But they have made precisely this sort of "inappropriate" choice in the past, as I pointed out.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#59 Postby Torino » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:18 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Barring that, Mark or Malcolm would be nice too. I don't really see them replacing Michael with Mike, although they might conceivably do that with another M name. They did use Fred (nickname for Frederic) as a replacement name, after all.


Matt 2024.
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Re: 2018 Cyclones Retirement

#60 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:26 pm

Cleveland Kent Evans wrote:
Torino wrote:
Mark and Mike are too similar to Marco and Michael. Perhaps in the future, but for replacement names now it seems inappropriate.


Oh, I agree. But they have made precisely this sort of "inappropriate" choice in the past, as I pointed out.


Wasn't Katrina replaced by Katia and Rina replaced Rita...both are pretty close to the mark, especially for direct replacements!
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