How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

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CyclonicFury
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#21 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:25 pm

Atlantic named storms after 9/16, 2000-present:
2000: 6 + 1 unnamed
2001: 8
2002: 3
2003: 7
2004: 4
2005: 12 + 1 unnamed
2006: 1
2007: 6
2008: 6
2009: 3
2010: 8
2011: 4
2012: 5
2013: 4 + 1 unnamed
2014: 3
2015: 3
2016: 4
2017: 4
Average: 5, not including unnamed storms.

My prediction of 3 would feature a slightly below normal end to the season. The average last named storm of the season does not dissipate until early November. Still a lot of hurricane season to go.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#22 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:19 am

I firmly believe that what October may severely lack in quantity, it can make up for in sheer violence, many of our worst (plus our strongest AND deadliest) have occurred in the month. With the indicators of a more favorable swing back to the Atlantic in a couple of weeks I would almost bet actual money we get two more, maybe three, but I don't feel many more than that. WCarib/southern Gulf, potentially relatively strong, and probably open middle Atlantic somewhere. Of recent note, 2006 had no storms develop in October, but Hurricane Isaac lingered into the month; and 2002 had only a tropical depression develop, but both Kyle and powerful Lili were active into the first part of the month. The last season that ended before October was 1993, the last tropical storm ending on September 21st, but a tropical depression lasted until the 30th.

Looking back, just for trivia and curiosity; if we were to end the season with Joyce, which should dissipate on or before the 19th, it would be the earliest end to the last named storm in a hurricane season since 1918 a century ago. Its sixth and final tropical storm dissipated on September 14th, but that season had two tropical depressions after that point. Even 1914 whose lone tropical storm dissipated on September 19th had a tropical depression in late October as per contemporary research. Amazingly, 1855 seems to be the only other year in the Atlantic database that ended before September 20th, its last storm dissipating on September 17th, and thus if we don't even have another tropical or subtropical depression after Joyce, this would be the earliest end to a hurricane season since literally before the Civil War.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#23 Postby GSBHurricane » Mon Sep 17, 2018 11:04 pm

I expect least one or more two storms, tying or beating 2015 which was a Super El Niño year. On the flip side, we could even tie last year which was a La Niña year, but I doubt it. Ultimately, I think the best analog to this year is either 1996 or 2000 which means I expect 3-5 more named storms before 2018 is up.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#24 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:01 am

3 nore 1 being a hurricane.
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