How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

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How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#1 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:26 am

I'm going with three. Maybe one more in September and two in October.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#2 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:44 am

I'm going to go with 2 more September and 2 in October. 4/3/2.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#3 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:38 pm

Hmm... 3 or 4. 3 in October and November and maybe another one in September.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#4 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:43 pm

0 to 1
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:48 pm

5 more. 2 of them becoming hurricanes (1 major).
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#6 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:14 pm

Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle? :lol:

I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#7 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:20 pm

5.

September: None
October: 4; 2 TS, 2 H
November: 1; 1 MH
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#8 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:21 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle? :lol:

I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.

I wonder if wxman is joking lol. 0-1 NS for the rest of the season seems unrealistically low, it's only mid-September and the season still has 2 1/2 months left.

My prediction for the rest of the season was 3 NS.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#9 Postby Kazmit » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:38 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle? :lol:

I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.

I wonder if wxman is joking lol. 0-1 NS for the rest of the season seems unrealistically low, it's only mid-September and the season still has 2 1/2 months left.

My prediction for the rest of the season was 3 NS.

I'm not sure he is. The Atlantic looks like it will be pretty inactive for the next couple of weeks, so maybe he thinks that will continue through the rest of the season.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#10 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:18 pm

Upward motion is coming back to the EPAC and Atlantic. We were wondering last week if Isaac might make a comeback after we swing back to phase 8. But it looks like the timing won’t be right. But after that - particularly the end of week 2 and then week 3, looks like NCEP is swinging way way into 1. If they’re right, a strong 2-3 storm Atlantic pulse should happen. I thought maybe we’d see another 1-2 and then maybe a stray late October or November storm. As it is, we might see 4 more systems with I think at least 2 getting to Hurricane strength .

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_wh.shtml
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#11 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:15 pm

Kazmit wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:Quite a contrast between the two pro mets. Who will win this battle? :lol:

I'm going with 4 named storms. One later this month, 2 in October, and a November subtropical storm.

I wonder if wxman is joking lol. 0-1 NS for the rest of the season seems unrealistically low, it's only mid-September and the season still has 2 1/2 months left.

My prediction for the rest of the season was 3 NS.

I'm not sure he is. The Atlantic looks like it will be pretty inactive for the next couple of weeks, so maybe he thinks that will continue through the rest of the season.

To go the entire rest of the season without a named storm is extremely unlikely. I'm not expecting the current level of activity to continue, but I cannot think of a single Atlantic hurricane season in the satellite era that ended before the last week of September. The Atlantic averages about 4-5 storms from this point forward, and while I'm not expecting a very active late season, I don't see why the Atlantic won't produce a few storms, even though it may be weak subtropics storms that don't get much attention.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#12 Postby chaser1 » Sat Sep 15, 2018 10:47 pm

I'd guess 4 more, one of which to be a major. Breakdown might go something like this-

September: one more tropical or sub-tropical Central Atlantic system that quickly moves poleward posing no threat to the Caribbean or U.S..

October: Three systems.... one Gulf T.S. striking Texas or Louisiana, one Caribbean T.S. striking Cuba, Florida Keys, then dissipating in the Gulf from upper shear, one hurricane near Turks & Caicos that intensifies as it moves toward S. Florida as a Cat. 3 recurving east of Bimini and impacts N.C. as a Cat 2.

November: Huge monsoonal system in SW Caribbean reaching min. hurricane intensity and flooding rains while driftong erratically fpr days before weakening to a T.S. and finally making landfall over E. Cuba or Hispaniola.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:48 am

I’d go with 2-4 more. With 2 at most becoming hurricanes, and maybe 1 more major.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#14 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:19 am

No, I wasn't joking. 0-1. Any more than that and the NHC will be naming subtropical storms east of Newfoundland.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#15 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:01 am

I'm thinking two. Maybe one of them becomes a hurricane.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#16 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:19 am

I’m seeing 5/2/1 the rest of the year and it will go as follows

September 26th. TS Kirk forms in the subtropical Atlantic and is no threat to land 60mph peak

October 6th TS Leslie forms in the BOC and landfalls at peak 45mph

October 10th TS Michael forms in the subtropics and is no threat to land peak 50mph

October 15th Major Hurricane Nadine forms in the western Caribbean and peaks in the Yucatan channel as a 175mph and moves NE and makes landfall between Ft Myers and Sarasota as a 125mph hurricane and moves out into the Atlantic and landfalls in Bermuda as a 80mph hurricane

November 3rd Hurricane Oscar forms in the western Caribbean and peaks at landfall as a 80mph hurricane in eastern Cuba
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#17 Postby HurricaneEric » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:20 am

I think we manage:

2-4 more named storms
1-2 hurricanes
0 majors

I’d keep my eyes on the SW and NE Caribbean areas as well as the Gulf. All just a gut feeling.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#18 Postby psyclone » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:36 am

yeah count me in the group that does not believe hurricane season is over although we are about to get a much deserved break. I think we get a couple more junk STS name waster systems in the mid latitudes and 1 or 2 legit tropical systems in the tropics (late season in the usual areas). so 3 or 4 total..
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#19 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 16, 2018 9:28 pm

Given this year seems similar to 2014 (in that it's warm-neutral largely MJO-driven) and even that year had 3/2/1 following nearly a month of inactivity following Edouard, I'll go a bit higher than that and say we see 3 in October, one in November, and maybe one more in September, with two in October being hurricanes, and maybe one in November. One more major is also possible as with 2014.
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Re: How many named storms do you expect for the rest of the 2018 Atlantic season?

#20 Postby StruThiO » Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:02 pm

I'll highball and go 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major
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