Non-Tropical Low in North-Central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

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cycloneye
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Non-Tropical Low in North-Central Atlantic (Is Invest 90L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:27 am

8 AM TWO:

A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda
and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to be
favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the
low meanders over the north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#2 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:29 am

Is this related to Florence's remnants?
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#3 Postby CyclonicFury » Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:57 am

This has a good chance to become Kirk, potentially the sixth subtropical storm of the year. And unlike the other subtropical storms, this one may actually have a chance to last a while and potentially become a hurricane.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:32 pm

2 PM TWO:

A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda
and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to be
favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation while the
low meanders over the north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 19, 2018 6:53 pm

8 PM TWO:

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop this
weekend over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda
and the Azores. After that time, conditions are expected to become
favorable for the formation of a subtropical or tropical cyclone
while the low meanders over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#6 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 19, 2018 7:11 pm

Looks like there's a decent chance we could see two storms by the end of the month with this and 97L.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:18 am

8 AM TWO:

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop by Friday
night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda
and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low
to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form over the weekend or early
next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:45 pm

2 PM TWO:

Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop by
Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean between
Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and
a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form late this weekend or
early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:49 pm

8 PM TWO:

Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop
by Friday night over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway
between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be
conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone could form
late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the
central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#10 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:04 pm

Will this low originate from the same trough (which is also what's left of Florence) that spawned 98L?
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#11 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:23 pm

Looking at model runs, that looks to be the case; assuming 98L grows, it's intriguing watching a hurricane spawn two more of itself in its dying gasps
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:33 am

8 AM TWO:

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight
over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway between Bermuda
and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for the low
to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone is expected to form late this
weekend or early next week while the low meanders over the central
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:50 pm

2 PM TWO:

A non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop tonight
or on Saturday over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean midway
between Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be
conducive for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical
characteristics, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely
to form late this weekend or early next week while the low meanders
over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#14 Postby Abdullah » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:57 pm

European Model brings this up quite high.

https://ibb.co/md2q7K
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#15 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:21 pm

Kazmit wrote:Is this related to Florence's remnants?


At least at the upper levels. I would consider 98L to be the ex-Florence LLC, but there will be debate for sure.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low to form between Bermuda and Azores

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:50 pm

8 PM TWO:

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop early this
weekend over the north-central Atlantic Ocean, midway between
Bermuda and the Azores. Conditions are expected to be conducive for
the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form late this weekend
or early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low in North-Central Atlantic

#17 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:54 pm

It is this part of the Atlantic that has been favorable for tropical development this season.
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Re: Non-Tropical Low in North-Central Atlantic

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:31 am

8 AM TWO:

3. Satellite imagery indicates that a non-tropical low pressure system
is forming along a frontal boundary about 900 miles west-southwest
of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for the
low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics, and a
subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week
while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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Re: Non-Tropical Low in North-Central Atlantic

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:13 am

It will be facinating to watch how it evolves.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1043470954612105217


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Re: Non-Tropical Low in North-Central Atlantic

#20 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:14 am

Because both the GFS and Euro show it meandering around for the next 10 days or so it could still put up some nice ACE numbers once it gets subtropical characteristics.
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