Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#21 Postby Shell Mound » Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:38 pm

North Atlantic basin only:
  1. A major hurricane (Cat-3) in the NW Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico in May
  2. A Cat-4+ hurricane and landfall(s) in the Caribbean in late June (beating Dennis 2005)
  3. The northernmost Cat-4 landfall ever recorded on the East Coast of the U.S.
  4. A 1935-type Cat-5 landfall on either South TX and/or South FL (including Keys)
  5. The first major hurricane (Cat-3) landfall on record in the Canadian Maritimes
  6. A record-breaking, high-end Cat-3 or low-end Cat-4 landfall on the Azores
  7. A large and intense (Cat-4+) landfall on Tampa Bay with impact to Orlando
  8. A Wilma-type Cat-5 hurricane in the SW Caribbean Sea sometime in December
  9. The first hurricane to strike either Iceland and/or the British Isles on record
  10. The southernmost subtropical cyclone to make landfall in the North Atlantic basin
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#22 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:02 pm

Chris90 wrote:I'm expecting Wilma to get beat at some point with the Atlantic finally having a storm dip into the 870-880mb range. Expecting Allen's sustained wind record to be beat as well. Good chance by the same storm. Something like 875mb/175kts.

I also think we'll see a new seasonal ACE record for both EPAC/CPAC and the Atlantic within the next 50 years. I'm not fully sold on global warming as some irreversible trend that will be permanent, but I do believe the world goes through long term cycles of warming and cooling. I know I read a study quite a few years back for a college course where it was theorized that one of these longer term warm cycles was largely responsible for pandemics like the Black Plague back in the Middle Ages. It is a reasonable enough theory that I consider it completely possible, and I think we may be in the earlier stages of a longer term global warm pattern. I think this favorable longer term pattern, when combined with favorable shorter term patterns such as the AMO will produce hurricane seasons that have exceeded anything we've seen before in terms of ACE generation. I also think it'll expand the areas that are susceptible to tropical cyclones, so the possibility for more frequent/intense hits on locations farther to the north, and possibly even allowing systems to make fully tropical hits on Europe.
In addition to this, I think places like the Southern Atlantic (meaning southern hemisphere) may see more storms, increasing the risk to South America.


I think it will likely happen. I would that will happen in the Caribbean. Most of the intense North Atlantic hurricanes are over the Caribbean (Gilbert, Wilma, Ivan, and Allen)
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#23 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:04 pm

Large Category 5 hurricane the size of Great (1956), Olga (2001), or Sandy (2012).
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#24 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Sep 22, 2018 6:21 pm

Image
Hurricane Alpha - December 1-11

Just like Hurricane Lenny and Tropical Storm Odette, this hypothetical Hurricane Alpha formed along the really southern end of a deep reaching cold front. With no major steering currents in the area, the stalled area of disturbed weather becomes a tropical depression on December 1 and drifts eastward to northeastward with the tradewinds. Hurricane Alpha quickly intensifies as it develops an anticyclone aloft, reaching Category 5 intensity near the same general location as Hurricane Matthew did in October 2016. Alpha drops heavy rainfall in northern Colombia and Venezuela, and it already is a shoe-in for retirement before it accelerates northward. A passing cold front brings the hurricane northward into southern Hispaniola as a Category 3. Like Hurricane Gordon in 1994, the severely weakened storm transitions into a subtropical cyclone and heads westward as the front passes the region. Alpha intensified as it drifted in the Straits of Florida. A powerful cold front accelerates the storm northward into the Miami area as a Cat. 3, and Alpha later becomes a powerful nor'easter that rides up the East Coast of the United States, causing blizzard-like conditions from Raleigh to Boston.

Perhaps this exact storm won't occur, but it's not impossible. The waters of the southern Caribbean can be warm enough in December for development, such as in 1822, 1955, and 2003. Hurricane Lenny in 1999 became a borderline Cat. 5 on November 17th, so 2 weeks later isn't that much of a stretch. The westward turn after Hispaniola is similar to paths taken by Gordon in 1994 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The intensification over the Straits of Florida might seem like pure fantasy, but Hurricane Kate in 1985 reached Cat 2 status in the same general area on November 19th 1985, and a C3 in the Gulf of Mexico the next day. This is possible in a future where the waters remain warm into December. Lastly, the transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone and causing blizzard conditions is well-documented, such as in 1804, Ginny 63, Gerda 69, Rina 11, and Sandy.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#25 Postby Ubuntwo » Sat Sep 22, 2018 7:15 pm

A landfalling category five on Georgia and/or the Carolinas.

A tropical cyclone, likely at TS intensity, landfalling in SoCal.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#26 Postby mlfreeman » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:46 pm

Dora 2.0, probably as a bottom end cat5 at landfall though.

Florence kept having ensemble members (from both the GFS and the Euro but mostly the Euro) that pointed at me in NE FL on the same basic track as Dora, so in my untrained unscientfic opinion, we weren't far from the prerequisite conditions already.

Thankfully for me (but not for NC), something was just not quite right to repeat it.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#27 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:23 am

Can you imagine what it would be like if the SW Caribbean ejected storms like tic tacs to the N like the E PAC does with storms to the W?

lol I don't think anybody would be living in on the Gulf coast anywhere
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#28 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 23, 2018 9:10 am

We in south Florida came as close as you can possibly come to a disaster of epec proportions if Irma would have made a direct landfall in Miami dade and broward as models at first were showing it could have been much worse then Andrew.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#29 Postby GSBHurricane » Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:57 pm

Also a hurricane to make landfall bear Los Angeles, California or an off-season Major.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#30 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:43 pm

A Tampa bay cat4 or 5 hurricane moving east-northeastward into the city.
Another 1938 New england hurricane but 60 miles to the west
A large cat5 hurricane making landfall directly on Miami
Last edited by Sciencerocks on Sat Sep 29, 2018 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#31 Postby redneck51 » Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:29 am

I experienced Maria, here in Puerto Rico, riding it out in my house. With that I've seen enough hurricanes for the rest of my life, trust me..
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#32 Postby 404UserNotFound » Sat Sep 29, 2018 11:46 pm

  • A system that forms in or crosses into the "wrong" side of the Equator, perhaps via a WWB atypically displaced toward one of the poles
  • A tropical system making landfall in mainland Europe or Africa, perhaps crossing into the Mediterranean
  • A hurricane-equivalent system in the SE Pacific
  • Another Catarina, perhaps in the SE Atlantic this time
  • A system crossing over Africa to enter the S Atlantic (perhaps the same as the previous system)
  • A system lasting continuously for over a month
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#33 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:44 pm

im willing to be that in my lifetime as im only 29, ill see a hurricane hit southern california

also i think New Orleans good fortune of not having a major hurricane hit since Katrina is bound to run out sadly, and probably be a strong cat 4.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#34 Postby ftolmsteen » Tue Oct 02, 2018 12:03 am

404UserNotFound wrote:
  • A system that forms in or crosses into the "wrong" side of the Equator, perhaps via a WWB atypically displaced toward one of the poles


Interesting scenario. I had to look this up because I figured there was no physical way for this to happen. Turns out there was one recorded disturbance with a low pressure in the southern hemisphere crossed the equator temporarily in 2008. From what I read hypothetically a hurricane could cross hemispheres but wouldn't last long and actually happening is extremely unlikely. The Coriolis would work against it's spin weakening it rapidly as it trekked further into the opposite hemisphere.

https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/ ... he-equator
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#35 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:39 am

I expect to see:

- a landfalling hurricane in southern California, near San Diego (it's happened before)
- a landfalling hurricane in New Jersey (Sandy's extratropical status notwithstanding, the storm surge results would be the same for Greater New York)
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#36 Postby Pearl River » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:50 am

I expect to see:

A cat-5 coming into NOLa similar to the 1947 storm.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#37 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:41 pm

A Cat 1 exploding into a major just off the SELA coast. There was already something like that to a lesser degree (and not a major) with Cindy in 2005, and it was something I had always worried about deep down when I lived down there. And I guess I still do since I have family down there, although I don't think about it as much. Not that I ever thought about it that much, but it was one of those deep-down concerns that would occasionally crop up.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#38 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Oct 05, 2018 3:44 pm

Another Cat 4/5 hitting Miami, if I'm totally honest. Historically one can see this seems to happen every 30-40 years and damn near happened with Irma.

Also I think a fully tropical hurricane will make landfall in Ireland at some point in the next 5-10 years.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#39 Postby Teban54 » Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:46 pm

Since this thread has been mentioned recently, I figured this might be a time for a revisit in 2024 (less than 6 years after the thread was made), and see which ones actually verified or came close to verifying:

Hurricanehink wrote:*A hurricane making landfall in California (last happened on October 2, 1858)

Ubuntwo wrote:A tropical cyclone, likely at TS intensity, landfalling in SoCal.

GSBHurricane wrote:Also a hurricane to make landfall bear Los Angeles, California or an off-season Major.

Socalhurcnegirl227 wrote:im willing to be that in my lifetime as im only 29, ill see a hurricane hit southern california

terstorm1012 wrote:- a landfalling hurricane in southern California, near San Diego (it's happened before)

Kay 2022 and Hilary 2023 both attempted this, but neither managed to make landfall in California as a tropical cyclone (and lost hurricane intensity well before then). Hilary might have made it if only it ended up as strong as models initially showed, and/or took a track slightly further west.

CyclonicFury wrote:-A subtropical/tropical storm landfall in Spain/Portugal.

Kazmit wrote:- Fully tropical landfall(s) somewhere in Europe.

Chris90 wrote:I also think it'll expand the areas that are susceptible to tropical cyclones, so the possibility for more frequent/intense hits on locations farther to the north, and possibly even allowing systems to make fully tropical hits on Europe.

404UserNotFound wrote:A tropical system making landfall in mainland Europe or Africa, perhaps crossing into the Mediterranean

Alpha 2020 made landfall in Portugal as a subtropical storm (some believe it was an unofficial TS), though it falls way short of hurricane intensity.

Hurricanehink wrote:*A hurricane hitting southwestern United Kingdom/Ireland/Spain/Portugal

galaxy401 wrote:I think the most likely event I might possibly see is a hurricane threat to Portugal.

Leslie 2018 also almost hit Portugal as a hurricane, a month after the comments were made. It only transitioned from a Cat 1 to extratropical in the last advisory before landfall in Portugal.

CyclonicFury wrote:-A Category 5 hurricane north of 30N outside of the Gulf of Mexico: With the very warm subtropics in recent years, we have seen a lot of major hurricanes in this region this decade. I think at some point we will see a Category 5 over the subtropical Atlantic.

Franklin 2023 reached its peak intensity of 130 kts at 29.0 N in the open Atlantic, just 1 degree and 10 kts short of this scenario.

Kazmit wrote:- A few US cat 5 landfalls.

Hurricane Mike wrote:This tells me that we may well see a Category 5 hurricane make U.S. landfall, my guess is in the next 10 years.

Michael 2018 made its US landfall as a Cat 5 later that year. Also, Ian 2022 did reach Cat 5 just offshore, but weakened back to 130 kts at landfall.

Chris90 wrote:I also think we'll see a new seasonal ACE record for both EPAC/CPAC and the Atlantic within the next 50 years.

2018 set a new seasonal ACE record for EPAC immediately after this comment.

Chris90 wrote:In addition to this, I think places like the Southern Atlantic (meaning southern hemisphere) may see more storms, increasing the risk to South America.

12 tropical and subtropical storms have formed in SATL between 2019 and now, more than the period of 2010-2018 since the Brazilian Navy started monitoring them.

EquusStorm wrote:Worldwide, I expect to live long enough to see medicanes be much more fully accepted as something more tropical in nature

Even though that has not happened yet, Storm Daniel 2023 brought disastrous impacts to Libya, with at least 4,000 fatalities and at least 10,000 missing. Hopefully, this will serve as a warning call for increased recognition of medicanes.

EquusStorm wrote:and another subtropical storm or two in the SE Pacific now that people are paying attention

404UserNotFound wrote:A hurricane-equivalent system in the SE Pacific

Cyclone Yaku 2023 formed in the southeastern Pacific off the cost of Peru, though I'm not sure if it ever fully met the definitions of a tropical cyclone.

EquusStorm wrote:Atlantic specifically, obviously we are going to have more $50-100b hits, so I may live long enough to see a Harvey/Katrina topper. The list of how recent the costliest storms were makes this clear.

While Ian 2023 did not top Harvey/Katrina in costs, it became the third $100b+ storm at a price tag of $112 billion, as well as the third costliest Atlantic hurricane.

wxmann_91 wrote:Another powerful Malay Peninsula crosser similar to Typhoon/Cyclone Gay 1989. Models showed this sometime last year but it fizzled.

Pabuk 2019 did cross into NIO as a tropical depression, even though it never regained tropical storm intensity (and was not powerful at any point of its life).

wxmann_91 wrote:East Coast hurricane impact where the hurricane is maintaining strength or intensifying at landfall due to baroclinic interaction, similar to Hazel 1954 or the LIE in 1938. Joaquin 2015 could have been this if the GFS runs had verified.

Isaias 2020 is probably a miniature version of this, as it was intensifying at NC landfall due to baroclinic interaction, despite only being a Cat 1. The stronger and more textbook examples of baroclinic interaction US landfalls are Michael 2018 and Zeta 2020, but neither were east coast storms.

wxmann_91 wrote:Cat 5 south Florida impact.

Ian 2022 came close, though that's in SW Florida whereas the comment was probably about SE Florida.

chaser1 wrote:Back to back.....to back (3) major's hitting nearly the same region within a three week period.

Three majors hitting the same spot didn't happen, but in 2020, Eta and Iota hit almost the same location in Nicaragua within a 2-week period.

Shell Mound wrote:The first major hurricane (Cat-3) landfall on record in the Canadian Maritimes

Fiona 2022 came close. While it was extratropical with wind speed below Cat 3 (officially), its pressure was well within major hurricane range.

SFLcane wrote:We in south Florida came as close as you can possibly come to a disaster of epec proportions if Irma would have made a direct landfall in Miami dade and broward as models at first were showing it could have been much worse then Andrew.

Sciencerocks wrote:A large cat5 hurricane making landfall directly on Miami

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Another Cat 4/5 hitting Miami, if I'm totally honest. Historically one can see this seems to happen every 30-40 years and damn near happened with Irma.

A Cat 5 landfall into SEFL almost happened a year later with Dorian.

Sciencerocks wrote:A Tampa bay cat4 or 5 hurricane moving east-northeastward into the city.

Again, Ian came close. (Though had it actually made its way to Tampa Bay, it would have probably weakened to Cat 3 or lower.)

Socalhurcnegirl227 wrote:also i think New Orleans good fortune of not having a major hurricane hit since Katrina is bound to run out sadly, and probably be a strong cat 4.

Pearl River wrote:A cat-5 coming into NOLa similar to the 1947 storm.

Ida 2021 did hit NOLA as a strong Cat 4 (thankfully not a Cat 5).

terstorm1012 wrote:- a landfalling hurricane in New Jersey (Sandy's extratropical status notwithstanding, the storm surge results would be the same for Greater New York)

Fay 2020 made landfall in New Jersey as a tropical system, even though only as a tropical storm with much less severe impacts.

AnnularCane wrote:A Cat 1 exploding into a major just off the SELA coast. There was already something like that to a lesser degree (and not a major) with Cindy in 2005, and it was something I had always worried about deep down when I lived down there. And I guess I still do since I have family down there, although I don't think about it as much. Not that I ever thought about it that much, but it was one of those deep-down concerns that would occasionally crop up.

This literally describes Zeta 2020, which had a surprise RI from Cat 1 to Cat 3 while approaching NOLA. Thankfully, its impacts were less severe than expected for a major landfall, partially due to its fast forward speed and approach angle. Ida 2021 also fits the description and had much worse impacts, but its RI was much less surprising.
Last edited by Teban54 on Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

#40 Postby Teban54 » Mon Feb 26, 2024 3:04 pm

Now, some of my own predictions:
  • A crossover storm between Atlantic and EPAC that achieves Cat 5 intensity in both basins
  • Another major hurricane landfall in Georgia (last MH landfall was 1898, last H landfall was David 1979)
  • A tropical or subtropical landfall in New Hampshire or Maine
  • The fifth CONUS Cat 5 landfall
  • A fully tropical system over the Great Lakes (Alberto 2018 came close)
  • A strong hurricane making landfall in two or more consecutive islands in Lesser Antilles between Barbuda and Grenada: taking a north-south track similar to Tammy 2023, but at much higher intensity and directly over the islands
  • A major hurricane landfall in South America (whether it's from the Caribbean or South Atlantic)
  • A major hurricane landfall on Cabo Verde islands
  • A Cat 4+ hurricane in the Caribbean in a moderate or strong non-Modoki El Nino
  • Another tropical cyclone landfall in Panama (the only one on record is Martha 1969)
  • A tropical depression that forms over Africa while still inland
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