Historic storms you expect to see in your lifetime

[Hurricanehink]

While we have a lull in the Atlantic, I thought I'd ask the tropical cyclone community about storms in the future that you expect you'll see one day. Extreme storms such as

*A major hurricane outside of the Atlantic hurricane season (never happened on record - Able 51 was downgraded)
*A significant hurricane affecting the United States in May/December (last happened on on 5/28/1863, a hurricane struck the Florida panhandle)
*A hurricane making landfall in California (last happened on October 2, 1858)
*A hurricane hitting southwestern United Kingdom/Ireland/Spain/Portugal

Any of yours? How would you explain one of these freak storms?

[CyclonicFury]

I think one day we could see:
-A hurricane in the Caribbean in December. Otto was a major hurricane on November 24, 2016 - just a week before the month of December. Also, in 2003, Odette was only 10 mph off of one in early December.
-A hurricane in the Northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico in late May. This scenario was depicted several times by the GFS and FV3 earlier this year, but never came to fruition. However, we did have Alberto, which at one point was close to becoming a hurricane.
-A subtropical/tropical storm landfall in Spain/Portugal.
-A Category 5 hurricane north of 30N outside of the Gulf of Mexico: With the very warm subtropics in recent years, we have seen a lot of major hurricanes in this region this decade. I think at some point we will see a Category 5 over the subtropical Atlantic.

[galaxy401]

I think the most likely event I might possibly see is a hurricane threat to Portugal. Also a Pacific crosser that makes it to the Philippines or China.

[Kazmit]

- A hurricane (or multiple) more intense than Wilma
- A few US cat 5 landfalls.
- Fully tropical landfall(s) somewhere in Europe.

[GSBHurricane]

A C5 in June

[Hurricane Mike]

This is similar to a thread I posted a few months ago about "return periods".

A study was done on return periods in 2008: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/1 ... JCLI1772.1

They noted a few interesting facts using their modeling:

The 1935 Labor Day Florida Keys storm was the most severe in our dataset. With a 265-yr wind speed return period and a 102-yr central pressure return period, it presses the fitted model boundaries. We believe this is due in part to the extreme southern latitude of this landfalling storm. Another storm of this intensity would likely again require a very southern landfalling latitude, with the Florida Keys or the Brownsville, Texas, region being the most likely hosts.

Andrew and Camille both have a 62.9 year "return period" based on their wind speeds, and Camille's pressure return period is 35.7 and Andrew's pressure return period is 10.9 years.

This tells me that we may well see a Category 5 hurricane make U.S. landfall, my guess is in the next 10 years. Remember too, Anita in 1977 could have easily been a 175 mph landfall into South Texas, and my hunch is that a Cat 5 Texas landfall will occur this century.

[FireRat]

A monster Cat 5 beast striking the Caribbean or Florida in November, as late as 11/25.

[Chris90]

I'm expecting Wilma to get beat at some point with the Atlantic finally having a storm dip into the 870-880mb range. Expecting Allen's sustained wind record to be beat as well. Good chance by the same storm. Something like 875mb/175kts.

I also think we'll see a new seasonal ACE record for both EPAC/CPAC and the Atlantic within the next 50 years. I'm not fully sold on global warming as some irreversible trend that will be permanent, but I do believe the world goes through long term cycles of warming and cooling. I know I read a study quite a few years back for a college course where it was theorized that one of these longer term warm cycles was largely responsible for pandemics like the Black Plague back in the Middle Ages. It is a reasonable enough theory that I consider it completely possible, and I think we may be in the earlier stages of a longer term global warm pattern. I think this favorable longer term pattern, when combined with favorable shorter term patterns such as the AMO will produce hurricane seasons that have exceeded anything we've seen before in terms of ACE generation. I also think it'll expand the areas that are susceptible to tropical cyclones, so the possibility for more frequent/intense hits on locations farther to the north, and possibly even allowing systems to make fully tropical hits on Europe.
In addition to this, I think places like the Southern Atlantic (meaning southern hemisphere) may see more storms, increasing the risk to South America.

[EquusStorm]

Great discussion concepts!

Worldwide, I expect to live long enough to see medicanes be much more fully accepted as something more tropical in nature, for one, and another subtropical storm or two in the SE Pacific now that people are paying attention. And a south Atlantic storm stronger than Catarina seems plausible; if it's happened once, it can always happen again.

Atlantic specifically, obviously we are going to have more $50-100b hits, so I may live long enough to see a Harvey/Katrina topper. The list of how recent the costliest storms were makes this clear.

Off season hurricanes and maybe majors? Absolutely; I'm just 27 and I remember when off season basin storms seemed a decent rarity. Better observing or less stringent classifying? Maybe, maybe not, but no doubt with us having an offseason storm basically every year now, one's gonna be pretty strong one day.

A violent storm racing up the east coast staying very intense and tropical frighteningly far north, bringing immense destruction from the Carolinas to New England; has happened many times before, and now it would be tremendously destructive. A modern repeat of the 17th and 19th century New England hits, but more intense.

Now that we've got such complete coverage of the Atlantic and accurate measurements, I also agree that Wilma's record will be shattered before too long. Patricia was just three years ago, after all, to remind us of this.

With population densities as they are, another Rita-like tragedy - but with people getting caught IN the landfall path this time - seems inevitable.

So many more possibilities. Will have to think of more.

[wxmann_91]

Another powerful Malay Peninsula crosser similar to Typhoon/Cyclone Gay 1989. Models showed this sometime last year but it fizzled.

East Coast hurricane impact where the hurricane is maintaining strength or intensifying at landfall due to baroclinic interaction, similar to Hazel 1954 or the LIE in 1938. Joaquin 2015 could have been this if the GFS runs had verified.

Cat 5 south Florida impact.

[chaser1]

A HurrNuclearcane. Earthquake related catastrophic damage or electrical failure to an older decaying reactor which leads to melt-down during an ill timed approach of a huge hurricane. The intense and large nuclear isotope laden wind-field would result in fall-out to be spread and carried by the massive hurricane circulation throughout the U.S. East Coast across the N. Atlantic and into W. Europe, ultimately surpassing Fukushima as our planet's worse natural disaster (in process of copy-writing the screen-play lol).

[chaser1]

Back to back.....to back (3) major's hitting nearly the same region within a three week period.

[beoumont]

A hurricane spawning a tornado that rains down buck-toothed sharks that burrow under the sand, that eat a straight to video producer opening a can of low grade tuna in his West Hollywood efficiency.

[hcane27]

A season “June 1 through November 30” that consists totally of named storms with advisories beginning north of 20N latitude.

[CFLHurricane]

1) A major hurricane that rides up the entire East Coast of Florida.

2) A major hurricane into New England that also causes a historic blizzard a la the perfect storm.

[Camerooski]

1) A major hurricane that rides up the entire East Coast of Florida.

2) A major hurricane into New England that also causes a historic blizzard a la the perfect storm.

Matthew came close to your first point

[Hurricaneman]

While we have a lull in the Atlantic, I thought I'd ask the tropical cyclone community about storms in the future that you expect you'll see one day. Extreme storms such as

*A major hurricane outside of the Atlantic hurricane season (never happened on record - Able 51 was downgraded)
*A significant hurricane affecting the United States in May/December (last happened on on 5/28/1863, a hurricane struck the Florida panhandle)
*A hurricane making landfall in California (last happened on October 2, 1858)
*A hurricane hitting southwestern United Kingdom/Ireland/Spain/Portugal

Any of yours? How would you explain one of these freak storms?

If this system is added in reanalysis then maybe the Christmas Eve storm of 1994 May end up being the example #2 possible storm or hurricane as that had sustained winds to 75 with gusts over 100 mph in SE Massachusetts

[Abdullah]

Maybe a storm with a track like Ivan's

Except no weakening occurs and it makes landfall at Katrina's levels.
After 1st landfall, It emerges(due to air issues or something) from Maryland as a top-end Tropical Storm, then Strengthens into major Hurricane. Goes through Florida, and makes landfall in Texas as a Category 3 or something.
Then it dissipates.
I mean, it seems impossible until it happens.


This isn't feasible at all.

[JPmia]

Another Great Miami Hurricane ala 1926 will happen again.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Ike, but the surge directed up Galveston Bay and into Houston Ship Channel and wrecking all the petrochemical plants.

It almost happened 10 years ago...doesn’t really take much.