I realize that it is a ULL but darn if it doesn't look as if it is trying to wrap energy. Probably non tropical but could cause some attention.
Not in a very good phase for development but a week ago it would raise some eyebrows.
Area of low pressure north of Bermuda (Is INVEST 98L)
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Re: 29 N 68 W Hmmmm.
The NHC had an area of interest outlined right in this area on the 5-day last week, saying there could be some slow development early the next week (right about now) so I kind of wonder if this is the low that the models were indicating. Obviously development seems unlikely now but can understand the enthusiasm in the TWO based on last week's activity.
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Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: 29 N 68 W Hmmmm.
Towards the end there, it looks like a poster-boy for a Sub-Tropical Depression.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda
I don’t see this being talked a lot about but it looks like a subtropical or tropical system already, and the models bring it back to the east coast in the next 5 days. I’m surprised this hasn’t been lemoned or even oranged
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Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda
Hurricaneman,
This has been talked about in here by both of us (Flo's baby as you put it):
viewtopic.php?p=2713606#p2713606
A portion of the remnants of Flo (Flo’s baby?) continue to show up on all models moving SE toward Bermuda today before making a clockwise turn back to westerly this weekend as it becomes positioned below a 200 mb high that moves offshore in the W Atlantic tomorrow and sticks around near Bermuda into early next week. This disturbance then approaches the SE US coast Mon before either recurving just offshore or coming into the coast by Tue. This general scenario has been showing up on model consensus for many days now only as a weak system. Still, no model at this time brings it in as more than a trough that ups shower activity. So, conditions aren’t expected to be favorable tropically. However, shear doesn’t appear to be strong as there are no westerlies nearby due to this strong 200 mb Bermuda high to the north of Flo’s baby keeping the westerlies away for the next 4-5 days and instead providing very high level easterlies. Also, SSTs off the SE coast are still very warm (midsummer warmth of 29-30C). So, this will probably get some attention at the BBs over the weekend whether or not warranted.
This has been talked about in here by both of us (Flo's baby as you put it):
viewtopic.php?p=2713606#p2713606
A portion of the remnants of Flo (Flo’s baby?) continue to show up on all models moving SE toward Bermuda today before making a clockwise turn back to westerly this weekend as it becomes positioned below a 200 mb high that moves offshore in the W Atlantic tomorrow and sticks around near Bermuda into early next week. This disturbance then approaches the SE US coast Mon before either recurving just offshore or coming into the coast by Tue. This general scenario has been showing up on model consensus for many days now only as a weak system. Still, no model at this time brings it in as more than a trough that ups shower activity. So, conditions aren’t expected to be favorable tropically. However, shear doesn’t appear to be strong as there are no westerlies nearby due to this strong 200 mb Bermuda high to the north of Flo’s baby keeping the westerlies away for the next 4-5 days and instead providing very high level easterlies. Also, SSTs off the SE coast are still very warm (midsummer warmth of 29-30C). So, this will probably get some attention at the BBs over the weekend whether or not warranted.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda
It certainly looks closed and well-organized at a glance. A bit busy so I haven't really delved into this one, but the circulation appears well defined, though OPC analyzes an interconnected front. Image from this morning when it looked the most well-put together, but it still looks fairly good right now, too.
700kB. Source: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband02.html
700kB. Source: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband02.html
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- cycloneye
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Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda
2 PM TWO:
A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda
cycloneye wrote:2 PM TWO:A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
So, the NHC isn't calling this partial remnants of Flo even though we've been calling it that, Flo's baby, etc. Therefore, it looks like it wouldn't be renamed Flo should it even become a named storm.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- weathaguyry
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Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda
I do think this is worth watching, because the models don't always do great with these sort of subtropical systems, and the models do steer the moisture associated with this towards the East Coast. If a TS does pop up out of this, areas that are far from bouncing back from Florence will have to pay attention regardless of strength, since 40-50mph winds aren't usually a big deal, but when there are downed trees and other debris just laying around, they can get tossed around like toys and cause more serious damage.
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Re: Area of low pressure north of Bermuda (Is INVEST 98L)
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