Area of low pressure north of Bermuda (Is INVEST 98L)

[OuterBanker]

I realize that it is a ULL but darn if it doesn't look as if it is trying to wrap energy. Probably non tropical but could cause some attention.
Not in a very good phase for development but a week ago it would raise some eyebrows.

[EquusStorm]

The NHC had an area of interest outlined right in this area on the 5-day last week, saying there could be some slow development early the next week (right about now) so I kind of wonder if this is the low that the models were indicating. Obviously development seems unlikely now but can understand the enthusiasm in the TWO based on last week's activity.

[Abdullah]

Towards the end there, it looks like a poster-boy for a Sub-Tropical Depression.

[Hurricaneman]

I don’t see this being talked a lot about but it looks like a subtropical or tropical system already, and the models bring it back to the east coast in the next 5 days. I’m surprised this hasn’t been lemoned or even oranged

[Kazmit]

Visible on the Bermuda radar:

http://www.weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=250KM%20SRI&user=

[LarryWx]

Hurricaneman,
This has been talked about in here by both of us (Flo's baby as you put it):

viewtopic.php?p=2713606#p2713606

A portion of the remnants of Flo (Flo’s baby?) continue to show up on all models moving SE toward Bermuda today before making a clockwise turn back to westerly this weekend as it becomes positioned below a 200 mb high that moves offshore in the W Atlantic tomorrow and sticks around near Bermuda into early next week. This disturbance then approaches the SE US coast Mon before either recurving just offshore or coming into the coast by Tue. This general scenario has been showing up on model consensus for many days now only as a weak system. Still, no model at this time brings it in as more than a trough that ups shower activity. So, conditions aren’t expected to be favorable tropically. However, shear doesn’t appear to be strong as there are no westerlies nearby due to this strong 200 mb Bermuda high to the north of Flo’s baby keeping the westerlies away for the next 4-5 days and instead providing very high level easterlies. Also, SSTs off the SE coast are still very warm (midsummer warmth of 29-30C). So, this will probably get some attention at the BBs over the weekend whether or not warranted.

[TheAustinMan]

It certainly looks closed and well-organized at a glance. A bit busy so I haven't really delved into this one, but the circulation appears well defined, though OPC analyzes an interconnected front. Image from this morning when it looked the most well-put together, but it still looks fairly good right now, too.

700kB. Source: https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/goesEastconusband02.html

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

2 PM TWO:

A non-tropical area of low pressure with gale-force winds is located
about 150 miles north of Bermuda and is moving south-southeastward
at about 15 mph. Although there are some signs of organization, dry
air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development
of this system over the next couple of days. However, conditions
could become a bit more conducive for this low to gradually acquire
some tropical characteristics early next week as the low moves south
and then drifts westward to the southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

So, the NHC isn't calling this partial remnants of Flo even though we've been calling it that, Flo's baby, etc. Therefore, it looks like it wouldn't be renamed Flo should it even become a named storm.

[weathaguyry]

I do think this is worth watching, because the models don't always do great with these sort of subtropical systems, and the models do steer the moisture associated with this towards the East Coast. If a TS does pop up out of this, areas that are far from bouncing back from Florence will have to pay attention regardless of strength, since 40-50mph winds aren't usually a big deal, but when there are downed trees and other debris just laying around, they can get tossed around like toys and cause more serious damage.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 98L is up