Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[AJC3]

Post away, peeps...

Here's a satellite image to get us started off...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS is more active than the prior run and is a huge mess with numerous members with TCs, many of which are Hs, hitting the CONUS TX-NC 10/9-13+.

[cycloneye]

LarryWx,one of our criteria was met by having an incipient area of interest so that is why this thread is made.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases in the SE US from overland.

[Aric Dunn]

vorticity from kirk is coming into the area. should see some large broad rotation by late tomorrow as the upper divergence expands north and the upper winds begin to turn out of the S as the anticyclone builds over the SW Carrib.

will have a much better idea come late tomorrow.

[KUEFC]

12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases in the SE US from overland.

Can I ask how you view this model?

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases in the SE US from overland.

Can I ask how you view this model?

Many sources including these free ones:

-Through day 10: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks
After going to this link, click on the Gulf to get closeup.

-Since much of the threat to the CONUS is days 11-15, check this out, which goes thru day 15:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

[Aric Dunn]

So the key factor right now for the next 48 hours is this upper low moving wsw off of cuba..

the models are in two camps. the models that keep a coherent system and those that spin up multiple vorts.

those that spin up multiple vorts and have a sheared out troughy mess that takes the upper low wsw then sw to just offshore Belize in the next 24 to 36 hours which creates/maintains this high sw to ne shear axis this of course will keep any surface feature slowly migrating to the NE as sheared system.

the camp that takes the upper low wsw then wnw ending up in the southern gulf which creates a much better environment.

all in all where that upper low goes in the next 36 hours will be key.

[Abdullah]

This seems to have great model support right now, according to the model thread, but when I go see the models myself, there's no mention of a system... What is the time-frame it's expected to form in and is it related to Kirk?

Thanks in Advance

[johngaltfla]

Go shear go! I'm ready for the season to end thank you very much.

[gatorcane]

A very active GEPS:

[Hurricaneman]

So the key factor right now for the next 48 hours is this upper low moving wsw off of cuba..

the models are in two camps. the models that keep a coherent system and those that spin up multiple vorts.

those that spin up multiple vorts and have a sheared out troughy mess that takes the upper low wsw then sw to just offshore Belize in the next 24 to 36 hours which creates/maintains this high sw to ne shear axis this of course will keep any surface feature slowly migrating to the NE as sheared system.

the camp that takes the upper low wsw then wnw ending up in the southern gulf which creates a much better environment.

all in all where that upper low goes in the next 36 hours will be key.

https://pli.io/osUdY.gif

The ULL seems to be moving more west than WSW which IMO gives the more developed models some credence so we’ll see

[Aric Dunn]

A very active GEPS:

https://i.postimg.cc/x8vFP0BL/gem-ememb_lowlocs_watl_29.png

THere is at least high percentage clustered in the most likely direction vs the operational nonsense.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to try to start development around 96hrs

[gatorcane]

ICON even stronger:

[Nimbus]

Looks like the building Bermuda high is very slowly digging for ARIC's wedge shot solution.
Kirk remnants will continue to be fanned by shear from southwest to northeast.
Not sure how much low level surface pressure there will be in 48 hours though.

[Hurricaneman]

Here are the 6 possible scenarios and their percentages of happening

Into the western GOM and into Texas like Jerry in 1989. 5%

Into the Central GOM states like Juan 1985 and Nate 2017. 10%

Into the Panhandle or Big bend of Florida like Opal 1995 or Kate 1985. 15%

Into the Florida peninsula like the 1921 Tamp bay hurricane or Wilma 2005. 40%

Up the spine of Florida or just east of Florida into North Carolina like Irene 1999 or Hazel 1954 or even King 1950. 20%

Through Cuba and out to sea like Michelle 2001, Omar 2008 or Paloma 2008. 10%

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS




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[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180930/3d2d35a0768280bb2950a2715cd97ce9.png


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Seems to be more convective feedback on this run but does seem to be trending towards the other models

[gatorcane]

Heading west: