Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

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Nimbus
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#881 Postby Nimbus » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:55 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Don’t see why this should be tagged as an invest yet. Pressures are still relatively high, shear is still strong in that part of the basin and if anything there’s still no concentrated center of circulation. I’d think by Sunday we should see some announcement.


Mid level cloud rotation can be deceiving but it does look like a surface circulation might be detected soon near 57.8. Since this is currently moving slowly, waiting till Sunday would allow for a much more accurate initial forecast.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (2 PM TWO: 40%/70%)

#882 Postby Ken711 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:Development cone well west of Florida...keep it that way please.


Eventual track could still be something to watch for the Panhandle area of Florida though.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#883 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:02 pm

Euro looks a bit further north and better organized than the last few runs out to 48 hours.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#884 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:04 pm

euro basically in same spot
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#885 Postby Craters » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:05 pm

KUEFC wrote:
gatorcane wrote:GFS ensembles east of operational. Big bend and west coast of Florida hits and some in SE Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/rmWBZgsR/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_25.png

Honestly don’t understand any of this, which one should be trusted regarding track etc?


I think the point right now is that none of them should be trusted. . . yet. There are still too many variables: different vortices firing up and spinning down, timing of fronts, persistence/development/erosion of ridges, etc. The initial conditions for the models are still too uncertain, in my humble and non-meteorologically trained opinion, to put a lot of stock in any one model or model run yet. You'll notice that even the pro mets and the forum's more erudite non-pros are still having to hedge their bets because of the complexity of the situation. That's mainly because it's still early in the system's development. The NHC is still giving it "only" a 40% chance of developing into a cyclone in the next two days, so there's still a lot that has to happen before things get more definite. Patience will be very helpful. Again, just my opinion. :roll:
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#886 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:07 pm

euro and cmc in the same exact spot 72 hours out....that is wild so icon,both GFS, Ukmet are farther east than Euro and CMC at 72 hours
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#887 Postby p1nheadlarry » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:10 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Don’t see why this should be tagged as an invest yet. Pressures are still relatively high, shear is still strong in that part of the basin and if anything there’s still no concentrated center of circulation. I’d think by Sunday we should see some announcement.


How does it compare to the surrounding environment though?
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#888 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:23 pm

12z Euro MUCH weaker compared to the 12z GFS, doesn't even go below 1000mbs.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

#889 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:24 pm

models aren't good with strenght espcially this far out
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#890 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:24 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:euro and cmc in the same exact spot 72 hours out....that is wild so icon,both GFS, Ukmet are farther east than Euro and CMC at 72 hours


Lets not forget that the Euro has been a bit west biased during the season.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

#891 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2018 1:24 pm

The INVEST is here

INVEST 91L is up
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