Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

Many overshooting tops this morning at DMAX.
Very close to my target area of 15N 80W.
Still some UL winds over it.
Watching if it persists today.

there is already broad low level turning. nothing organized of course but north winds along the western and sw carrib and ese to Se winds near columbia.

shear has dropped a good deal in the SW Carrib and that will expand northward today as that upper low/trough continues almost westerly at this point.

When you can Aric,post the water vapor to see where is that upper low.

Here is the WV for the last 13 hours. only did 1 image per hour. the last 4 or 5 hours the upper low has slowed and is on a more wsw to west motion.



and a close up the broad turning.

[Aric Dunn]

And here is the progression of the upper low/trough for the last 24 hrs. The more that moves west the better environment will set up.

[Aric Dunn]

And the broad turning within the developing convection. only early stages and just one area.

[blp]

FWIW, HWRF basin wide run for Leslie likes it.

[GCANE]

500mb Vort moving west into the Yucatan Channel
850mb Vort coming up from the south

[GCANE]

Good steady drop in 355K PV: Yucatan - Cuba - Bahamas.
Making for more conducive TC-development conditions.
And, a possible window to open up if one does develop and move north.

[blp]

FWIW, FIM is onboard and ramps it up once it gets into the Gulf.

[KUEFC]

Might sound a silly question but are models ever wrong when there seems to be this much support?

[toad strangler]

Might sound a silly question but are models ever wrong when there seems to be this much support?

Something is going to pop. The big questions are: (and there are multiple factors involved with each question)

1. Where does it go
2. Intensity or lack thereof

[stormlover2013]

we shall see, I would say 40-50 percent something weak could come out of this

[toad strangler]

Not a peep from the NHC in the 5 day

[SFLcane]

Here is another look at the FIM..

[KUEFC]

Here is another look at the FIM..

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/01/wow.png

Not the most reliable of models though is it?

[stormlover2013]

no its just as bad as CMC and NAVY

[SFLcane]

Ensembles EPS shows quite the congregation of hurricanes into Florida..

[TheStormExpert]

Ensembles EPS shows quite the congregation of hurricanes into Florida..

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/01/ensembles.png

With the ridge parked over the Eastern U.S. I’d be favoring the left side of the spread into the eastern Gulf.

[psyclone]

I'm watching this with interest as I always do down there this time of year but so far it's tough to bet against persistence which has been reliably hostile this season in the Caribbean. Toss in a scoop of nothin' (thus far) from the NHC and you have a model storm yawn fest at this point. But..tis the season and things change and the secondary peak (which reflects development in this region) is close at hand. It certainly warrants a periodic check in.

[northjaxpro]

I'm watching this with interest as I always do down there this time of year but so far it's tough to bet against persistence which has been reliably hostile this season in the Caribbean. Toss in a scoop of nothin' (thus far) from the NHC and you have a model storm yawn fest at this point. But..tis the season and things change and the secondary peak (which reflects development in this region) is close at hand. It certainly warrants a periodic check in.

I am with you for the time being. Definitely we should always monitor the Northwestern Caribbean in early October for sure. However, as psyclone astutely indicated above, for the time being, conditions have been so hostile down there all season with shear and dry air. This has been persistent all season long in the Caribbean.

I am just waiting and seeing if the models indeed are picking up on potential improving upper and mid level conditions which could induce tropical cyclone development in the next week or so. Hopefully, we will have a better indication as time progresses later this week.

[toad strangler]

Shear continues to scream in the N Caribbean on the 12z GFS.

[floridasun78]

factor is shear it need to drop and other thing if we see yellow circle wont be untill tur that fall five day because models dont show any thing untill thur to sat