Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

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chaser1
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#821 Postby chaser1 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:05 am

gatorcane wrote:Down to 978MB now on the GFS. I say dev chances are going up and it is getting a bit concerning with this run.


(Que up back-round theme music from the movie Jaws lol)
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#822 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:05 am

if gfs is suddenly doing something like this we can only imagine what the hwrf will do, major hurricane
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#823 Postby KUEFC » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:07 am

Surely we have to wait for consistency?
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#824 Postby LarryWx » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:07 am

Note that the shear on the GFS is nil near the storm.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#825 Postby chaser1 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:07 am

Things are suddenly gonna get a lot more real here if the Euro begins to trend stronger too
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#826 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:08 am

Turning NNE looks like panhandle:

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#827 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:08 am

jlauderdal wrote:if gfs is suddenly doing something like this we can only imagine what the hwrf will do, major hurricane


The models are slowly coming onto the idea of a cut off upper low over the western gulf. depending on the placement of that this system could have that potential especially if it is slower...


the GFS also this RUN has a very strong digging trough.. will see if that changes..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#828 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:08 am

its one run of the gfs, the gfs this version at 6z showed nothing lol.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#829 Postby psyclone » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:08 am

KUEFC wrote:Surely we have to wait for consistency?


no way! let the panic commence!
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#830 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:09 am

The invest tag looks more imminent now at any time with the bullish GFS performance at 12z.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#831 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:09 am

stormlover2013 wrote:its one run of the gfs, the gfs this version at 6z showed nothing lol.

But the GEFS Ensembles have been quite bullish for runs now, so this isn’t as surprising as it could be.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#832 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:10 am

Oh boy, 966MB:

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#833 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:11 am

stormlover2013 wrote:its one run of the gfs, the gfs this version at 6z showed nothing lol.
yes, lets get the euro on board and get some consistency between the two before our friends on the north gulf coast start running out to home depot and wal mart
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#834 Postby stormlover2013 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:11 am

oh it could happen, no doubt about, we need to see consistency GFS hasn't been consistent heck the most consistent has been CMC
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#835 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:12 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Boy?! 988 mb at 90 hr's , is quite the turn around for the GFS :crazyeyes:

It’s 978mb at 102hrs. :double:


Yeah I just saw that as well. Wow! Big change this. 12Z GFS run. Very aggressive indeed! GFS signaling that much better upper level conditions. next week?
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#836 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:13 am

Most models picking up on moving this more towards FL. Makes sense in October. I have hard time seeing this making landfall any further west than FL/AL border. Models are also picking up on a more favorable environment for development.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#837 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:14 am

SO far the CMC pretty much has not wavered in days.. same general track into the gulf. after that its to far out.

current 12z CMC is farther west.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#838 Postby chaser1 » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:16 am

northjaxpro wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Boy?! 988 mb at 90 hr's , is quite the turn around for the GFS :crazyeyes:

It’s 978mb at 102hrs. :double:


Yeah I just saw that as well. Wow! Big change this. 12Z GFS run. Very aggressive indeed! GFS signaling that much better upper level conditions. next week?


....and in the F.W.I.W. catagory, the 12Z NAM has even shifted east and also stronger at 84 hr's as well
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#839 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:SO far the CMC pretty much has not wavered in days.. same general track into the gulf. after that its to far out.

current 12z CMC is farther west.


Yeah, the only way this comes further west is if shorter term motion brings it similar to what the CMC is showing. I believe a path directly through the Yucatan Channel or over the tip of Cuba takes this into FL.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#840 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:18 am

12z GFS with a landfall 18z Wednesday October 10th @ Hr.126 near Panama City, Florida.

Image
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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