Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

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Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

#1 Postby AJC3 » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:42 pm

Post away, peeps...

Here's a satellite image to get us started off...

Image
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#2 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:48 pm

The 12Z EPS is more active than the prior run and is a huge mess with numerous members with TCs, many of which are Hs, hitting the CONUS TX-NC 10/9-13+.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:54 pm

LarryWx,one of our criteria was met by having an incipient area of interest so that is why this thread is made.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#4 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:14 pm

12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases in the SE US from overland.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#5 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:16 pm

vorticity from kirk is coming into the area. should see some large broad rotation by late tomorrow as the upper divergence expands north and the upper winds begin to turn out of the S as the anticyclone builds over the SW Carrib.

will have a much better idea come late tomorrow.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#6 Postby KUEFC » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:21 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases in the SE US from overland.

Can I ask how you view this model?
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#7 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:28 pm

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS: I count close to 30 TCs from the 51 members with ~17 Hs, 7 of which slam into FL 10/10-15 along with one near miss and several TSs. All of the 7 that hit FL come off the Gulf with the highest concentration Big Bend to Ft. Myers. Parts of every state TX-NC get hit by at least one member within the 10/10-15 timeframe though in some cases in the SE US from overland.

Can I ask how you view this model?


Many sources including these free ones:

-Through day 10: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks
After going to this link, click on the Gulf to get closeup.

-Since much of the threat to the CONUS is days 11-15, check this out, which goes thru day 15:
https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#8 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 30, 2018 3:36 pm

So the key factor right now for the next 48 hours is this upper low moving wsw off of cuba..

the models are in two camps. the models that keep a coherent system and those that spin up multiple vorts.

those that spin up multiple vorts and have a sheared out troughy mess that takes the upper low wsw then sw to just offshore Belize in the next 24 to 36 hours which creates/maintains this high sw to ne shear axis this of course will keep any surface feature slowly migrating to the NE as sheared system.

the camp that takes the upper low wsw then wnw ending up in the southern gulf which creates a much better environment.

all in all where that upper low goes in the next 36 hours will be key.

Image
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#9 Postby Abdullah » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:43 pm

This seems to have great model support right now, according to the model thread, but when I go see the models myself, there's no mention of a system... What is the time-frame it's expected to form in and is it related to Kirk?

Thanks in Advance
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#10 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Sep 30, 2018 4:55 pm

Go shear go! I'm ready for the season to end thank you very much. 8-)
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#11 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:02 pm

A very active GEPS:

Image
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#12 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:So the key factor right now for the next 48 hours is this upper low moving wsw off of cuba..

the models are in two camps. the models that keep a coherent system and those that spin up multiple vorts.

those that spin up multiple vorts and have a sheared out troughy mess that takes the upper low wsw then sw to just offshore Belize in the next 24 to 36 hours which creates/maintains this high sw to ne shear axis this of course will keep any surface feature slowly migrating to the NE as sheared system.

the camp that takes the upper low wsw then wnw ending up in the southern gulf which creates a much better environment.

all in all where that upper low goes in the next 36 hours will be key.

https://pli.io/osUdY.gif

The ULL seems to be moving more west than WSW which IMO gives the more developed models some credence so we’ll see
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:07 pm



THere is at least high percentage clustered in the most likely direction vs the operational nonsense.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:08 pm

The 18zGFS seems to try to start development around 96hrs
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#15 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:16 pm

ICON even stronger:

Image
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#16 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:17 pm

Looks like the building Bermuda high is very slowly digging for ARIC's wedge shot solution.
Kirk remnants will continue to be fanned by shear from southwest to northeast.
Not sure how much low level surface pressure there will be in 48 hours though.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:28 pm

Here are the 6 possible scenarios and their percentages of happening

Into the western GOM and into Texas like Jerry in 1989. 5%

Into the Central GOM states like Juan 1985 and Nate 2017. 10%

Into the Panhandle or Big bend of Florida like Opal 1995 or Kate 1985. 15%

Into the Florida peninsula like the 1921 Tamp bay hurricane or Wilma 2005. 40%

Up the spine of Florida or just east of Florida into North Carolina like Irene 1999 or Hazel 1954 or even King 1950. 20%

Through Cuba and out to sea like Michelle 2001, Omar 2008 or Paloma 2008. 10%
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#18 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:28 pm

18z GFS

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:30 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:18z GFS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180930/3d2d35a0768280bb2950a2715cd97ce9.png


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Seems to be more convective feedback on this run but does seem to be trending towards the other models
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#20 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 30, 2018 5:43 pm

Heading west:

Image
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