Area East of Bahamas

[boca]

I saw this area scooting west towards Florida is their anything up with this?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I saw this area scooting west towards Florida is their anything up with this?

There appears to be a weak low there with thunderstorms around it- bears watching but we will have to see if more thunderstorms fire up. Moving towards Florida and should at the least enhance rain chances tomorrow and Friday. I’m not sure if it develops. It might try to. Shear is not too bad there, and it is on the moist side of an upper level low.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/xf4LM6XAhg1mh9Fj7

[northjaxpro]

Glad someone made a thread about this. I just made a post about this area in the otherWestern Caribbean thread.

[stormlover2013]

won't be anything

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

won't be anything

It will bring enhanced rain and thunderstorms to Florida even if it doesn’t develop. I’m curious to see if it does develop, with low shear we have had rapid spin ups like 2016s Julia for example. Heat content and moisture are very favorable as well. Not saying it will develop, but a quick td or low end ts popping up quickly wouldn’t shock me.

[northjaxpro]

won't be anything

It will bring enhanced rain and thunderstorms to Florida even if it doesn’t develop. I’m curious to see if it does develop, with low shear we have had rapid spin ups like 2016s Julia for example. Heat content and moisture are very favorable as well. Not saying it will develop, but a quick td or low end ts popping up quickly wouldn’t shock me.

I completely agree with you TB Hurricane. Any trackable vorticity in the basin always need to be watched, especially one like this one close to the Bahamas and Florida.. I have seen several instances through the years similar to what you referenced TB regarding T.S. Julia, to see vorts that may appear like nothing much, but they can every once in awhile find a sweet spot and spin up very quickly!!

[stormlover2013]

poof

[LarryWx]

won't be anything

It will bring enhanced rain and thunderstorms to Florida even if it doesn’t develop. I’m curious to see if it does develop, with low shear we have had rapid spin ups like 2016s Julia for example. Heat content and moisture are very favorable as well. Not saying it will develop, but a quick td or low end ts popping up quickly wouldn’t shock me.

I completely agree with you TB Hurricane. Any trackable vorticity in the basin always need to be watched, especially one like this one close to the Bahamas and Florida.. I have seen several instances through the years similar to what you referenced TB regarding T.S. Julia, to see vorts that may appear like nothing much, but they can every once in awhile find a sweet spot and spin up very quickly!!

Jax,
I don't think this will do anything tropically speaking. However, I do think 7-10 days from now is not so clearcut as various models at different times have been bringing something into or close to the FL east coast despite the 12Z GFS/Euro/FV3 having nothing organized.

Check out the 12Z GEFS if you have yet to do so to best illustrate my curiosity. Here's the 186 hour map:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_32.png

Though most are weak, the important takeway from that map is that 2/3 of the 21 members have a surface low somewhere between the FL E coast and just E of the Bahamas and the persistent upper high to the north steers all but one of them on later maps either into or very near FL over some of the warmest SSTs in the basin thanks largely to record heat and no TCs crossing the area (Flo was north)and when shear is low. This is an example of the famed "ridge over troubled water" pattern.


Actually, I was wondering if this would be a better thread to later start talking about that as we get closer (as opposed to within the Caribbean thread) and if it then were to look like the threat were increasing per models as there may very well be another area E of the Bahamas within a week.

[boca]

The area hasn’t gone poof yet but it will bring needed rain to the east coast of Florida.