Low Pressure forms in SW Caribbean: (INVEST 94L is up)

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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#41 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:37 am

floridasun78 wrote:look now alot shear central carribbean were storm area in having hard time move to west

I think convection will consolidate over the SW Caribbean, where lower shear and vorticity is- it might take a few days. Could get pushed west if that ridge builds in strong east of Florida. Possibly gets pushed west into Central America, but will bear some watching.
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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#42 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:28 pm

GFS, surface low tomorrow, general area of Michael's genesis.

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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#43 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:51 pm

GCANE wrote:GFS, surface low tomorrow, general area of Michael's genesis.

http://i67.tinypic.com/280o07q.png

low very weak maybe not be td one gfs show if run models later you see dont form look do on east pac ocean side
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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#44 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:59 pm

I was hoping the tropics would quiet down after such a violent year, but the Caribbean is still agitated my friends. :cry:

There is a definitive spin in the SW Caribbean drawing upon moisture, in a pocket of lower shear. Shear is also enhancing convection associated with what looks to be a trough further to the Northeast across the Caribbean Islands.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=12
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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#45 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:44 am

Area looks ripe around 15N 80W.
Broad vort at surface.
Tighter vort 850 to 700mb.
500mb vort displaced SW over Nicaragua.
250mb anticyclone over head indicating strong ascent.
TPW and CAPE are both high.
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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#46 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:48 am

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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#47 Postby Frank P » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:14 am

Definite very large low level circulation in this area this morning with increasing convection.... if it continues would expect the NHC to show more interest in it this afternoon... TBD>>>
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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#48 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:03 am

This area is looking more organized this morning, it might spin up before landfall in Central America.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/2zrmtkfMGZrWpZYDA
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Re: Low Pressure to form in West-Central Caribbean

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:38 pm

2 PM TWO:

An area of disturbed weather has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea in association with a large low pressure system
located more than 200 miles east-southeast of the Nicaragua-Honduras
border. Upper-air data indicate that the system has become better
defined over the past couple of days. However, the surface
circulation remains broad and upper-level winds are expected to be
only marginally favorable for any development to occur while the
system moves westward to west-northwestward over the next couple of
days, reaching Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday or early
Tuesday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall will be
possible across portions of Central America Tuesday through
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: Low Pressure forms in SW Caribbean

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:44 pm

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