Low Pressure forms in SW Caribbean: (INVEST 94L is up)

[StPeteMike]

I’m not writing this off as a CA storm until we actually a LLC to follow. Setting is almost similar to Wilma, who also had a ridge to the north at the beginning of her life. And we all know where she eventually ended up.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a day or two. Environmental conditions are
expected to support gradual development and a tropical depression
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a day or two. Environmental conditions are
forecst to support gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves slowly westward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[ballred]

Could anyone post an updated graphic model for this area or provide a link? I’m afraid it’s not a part of my skill set Thanks!

[Frank2]

Not a Wilma repeat we hope because of strong high pressure to the north this time, unlike in 2005 when the trough was approaching - similar to today...

[CyclonicFury]

It's looking increasingly likely that this moves inland into Central America with no development. However, it should be stressed that models did not develop Michael until a few days out.

[TheStormExpert]

Do any models actually develop this anymore?

[TheStormExpert]

That front will not make it through South Florida. Likely going to be awhile until we see any significant decreases in both temperature and dew point.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the
west-central Caribbean Sea in a day or two. This system is expected
to move slowly westward toward Central America through early next
week. Environmental conditions are forecast to support some slow
development, however, interaction with land could limit the chance
of formation once the system approaches Central America on Monday or
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the GFS,FV3 and ECMWF develop this on the EPAC side after it moves thru CentralAmerica.

[cycloneye]

Decreasing.

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop over the
west-central Caribbean Sea in a day or two and move slowly westward
toward Central America through early next week. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development, however, interaction
with land will likely limit the chance of formation once the system
approaches Central America on Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[johngaltfla]

Good. Get those odds to 0% across the board please.

[cycloneye]

Next!

A broad area of low pressure could form over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a day or two and then move slowly westward toward
Central America through early next week. Environmental conditions
are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SoupBone]

Next!

A broad area of low pressure could form over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a day or two and then move slowly westward toward
Central America through early next week. Environmental conditions
are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Very slowly starting to close the door. Maybe a few last minute surprises, but I think most are ready for cold!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical
Storm Nadine, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[TheStormExpert]

Next!

Very slowly starting to close the door. Maybe a few last minute surprises, but I think most are ready for cold!

Wouldn’t rule out another Otto-like system without the East Pacific crossover part, but HOPEFULLY Michael was the finale in terms of continental U.S. impacts is concerned.

[GCANE]

Two LL Vorts developing in shear-axis convection.
Water Vapor imagery indicating conducive moisture from low to upper levels.
Chances looking better for possible development.
Could brew for a couple days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I also see vorticity in the SW Caribbean and tons of moisture in the central Caribbean. I do think the Caribbean produces a storm eventually. This bears watching. There is a low shear zone in the SW Caribbean.

[SconnieCane]

Is that Leslie sitting over there on top of the scale on the right?

[floridasun78]

look now alot shear central carribbean were storm area in having hard time move to west