Low Pressure forms in SW Caribbean: (INVEST 94L is up)

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the western
Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected
to support some gradual development after that time while the system
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[toad strangler]

So we weren't just seeing things
GFS still does nada with this

[gatorcane]

So we weren't just seeing things
GFS still does nada with this

That is the same GFS that had a wave into the northern Gulf coast for Michael in the long-range. The new GFS has something though:

[SFLcane]

Yep, FV3, CMC, UKMET and EURO develop this good thing for now is most bring into central america.

[EquusStorm]

Would carry the name of mom's evil Shih-tzu. Appropriate.

[SFLcane]

Again fortunately this does not appear as it stands now to be a threat to the gulf or florida with that ridge over head. Only 1 place to go and that is straight westward but as always subject to change.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a ridge you would see in July or August:

[EquusStorm]

Would be some major flood and mudslide issues in Honduras and Belize on that track, but it's a pretty common path; I remember in 2010 a huge chunk of the year's storms basically took that path

[northjaxpro]

Ahh.. The good 'ole +NAO. Gotta love its persistence!!

[toad strangler]

What a R I D G E ....

[toad strangler]

So if this vort makes it a bit further N then depicted on the 12z Euro it could conceivably cross the Yucatan and then start riding the periphery of that ridge and start a turn in the SW GOM. That would be a problematic scenario. IF ... what the 12z Euro is showing is a ridge that stretches all the way into TX. Not happening if that verifies.... it's E PAC city

[BZSTORM]

Ok so been watching the models for last few days taking pot shots at Belize around 18th Oct, intensity fluctuating from something to barely nothing this far out pinch of salt for that. Can someone humor me as even after many many years ghosting this forum before commenting, I still have problems interpretation intensity i.e. depression vs TS vs Hurricane (I mean yes I understand the pressure when its indicated on a model). And yes this is the peak month for Belize, so we are watching this intently as going by models we might only get 48hrs notice from development to landfall in some of them. but color depth of vort and rings still not got a grasp of that

[toad strangler]

Ok so been watching the models for last few days taking pot shots at Belize around 18th Oct, intensity fluctuating from something to barely nothing this far out pinch of salt for that. Can someone humor me as even after many many years ghosting this forum before commenting, I still have problems interpretation intensity i.e. depression vs TS vs Hurricane (I mean yes I understand the pressure when its indicated on a model). And yes this is the peak month for Belize, so we are watching this intently as going by models we might only get 48hrs notice from development to landfall in some of them. but color depth of vort and rings still not got a grasp of that

If you take this 12z Euro run VERBATIM ... that could be near depression status but probably a vigorous tropical wave at landfall.

[BZSTORM]

Ok so been watching the models for last few days taking pot shots at Belize around 18th Oct, intensity fluctuating from something to barely nothing this far out pinch of salt for that. Can someone humor me as even after many many years ghosting this forum before commenting, I still have problems interpretation intensity i.e. depression vs TS vs Hurricane (I mean yes I understand the pressure when its indicated on a model). And yes this is the peak month for Belize, so we are watching this intently as going by models we might only get 48hrs notice from development to landfall in some of them. but color depth of vort and rings still not got a grasp of that

If you take this 12z Euro run VERBATIM ... that could be near depression status but probably a vigorous tropical wave at landfall.

and what is the somewhat insane FV3 GFS 12z run with 2 different cyclones Oct17 landfall mid Belize and Oct 23 Honduras/Nicaragua landfall looking a bit like a 1998 Hurr Mitch to me. The later went around Belize but the days of rain before and after left seriously 2 feet of water on the road where I live for 2 weeks. Since Mitch I worry allot about rain events even a depression moving slowly enough can do more damage than a TS and let us not forget we were remembering Hurricane Iris yesterday on the Placencia Peninsula it might not have technically made landfall here as we are a peninsula but it trashed our areas and the wave broke halfway along my house the the cheif met officer calculated we had a 12ft surge. So I am a little jumpy right now seeing this model which 2 days ago didnt have much showing. But thanks for the Euro breakdown is the color key on side M/PH or KT/PH?

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to support some development over the weekend while the system moves
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[toad strangler]

8 PM TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to support some development over the weekend while the system moves
slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/tc5iF3b.png

Lemon face plant into CA

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like this area is south of PR and Hispaniola is the area of disturbed weather that is expected to develop in the SW Caribbean and is expected to move slowly until the ridge rebuilds

[Blinhart]

So the way it is going by the end of the day tomorrow it will be at 20/60

[StruThiO]

0/40

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to support gradual development over the weekend and early next week
while the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the west-central
Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to support gradual development and a tropical depression could form
late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly
westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.