Hurricane Michael In Perspective

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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#1 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:55 pm

There is a lot of misinformation in the media about Hurricane Michael. I am sharing the below link with people in hopes of clearing up some of these errors -

"Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records"

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/Paleo/Liu-Fearn_2000.pdf * requires PDF reader
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#2 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:56 pm

What’s amazing is how many hurricanes move nearby in GOM and how infrequent Cat 4/5 are for NE GOM. Mike was truly a once in a lifetime Hurricane...
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:25 pm

It seems the last storm like Michael probably happened in about 1650-1700. I'd be curious to see if they revisit that study after things settle, and how Michael compares to those prehistoric hurricanes.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#4 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:38 am

CrazyC83 wrote:It seems the last storm like Michael probably happened in about 1650-1700. I'd be curious to see if they revisit that study after things settle, and how Michael compares to those prehistoric hurricanes.


I was watching CNN and they were saying some very crazy things about the recent hurricane so I dusted off this old study (in my links) for those interested in the hard science behind Michael and storms like him in this region. Please, everyone, don't get your information from cable news but rather use real experts.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#5 Postby USTropics » Sat Oct 13, 2018 2:40 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:There is a lot of misinformation in the media about Hurricane Michael. I am sharing the below link with people in hopes of clearing up some of these errors -

"Reconstruction of Prehistoric Landfall Frequencies of Catastrophic Hurricanes in Northwestern Florida from Lake Sediment Records"

ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/Paleo/Liu-Fearn_2000.pdf * requires PDF reader


Good read, here are some excerpts:

No catastrophic hurricane of category 4 or 5 intensity has
made landfall in the Western Lake area during the last 130 yr
of documentary record, but the sediment stratigraphic data
suggest that 12 such hurricanes directly struck Western Lake
during the past 3400 yr, yielding a long-term frequency of
approximately one hurricane every 280 yr. Therefore, the Florida
Panhandle on average has a 0.36% probability of being
struck by a catastrophic hurricane of category 4 or 5 intensity
in any particular year.

The Western Lake data demonstrate that, like other paleoclimatic proxy
records that reveal “warm climate surprises” (Overpeck, 1996),
paleohurricane records from the past century or even the past
millennium are not long enough to capture the full range of
variability of catastrophic hurricane activities inherent in the
Holocene climatic regime. If future climatic changes, whether
or not related to the anticipated greenhouse warming, lead to a
return of a “hyperactive” hurricane regime characteristic of the
first millennium A.D., then the northeastern Gulf Coast is
expected to experience a dramatic increase in the frequency of
strikes by catastrophic hurricanes.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#6 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:52 am

Another thing: Michael may not be reflected there, unless storm surge wrapped back around, since Western Lake was just west of the landfall point. I'd be curious to see if they can find examples farther east.

The return period is probably about every 100-150 years on average for an extreme hurricane in the Panhandle and Big Bend.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#7 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:26 am

A few key factors that were significant in Michael's development and strengthening.

1) Genesis from a shear axis.
2) Moved over 3 key areas of high oceanic heat content.
3) A nearly due north track which invoked a secondary Coriolis force that contributed to strengthening.
4) An open eyewall almost all the way to landfall. This inhibited any EWRC.
5) Very unstable air on approach to landfall. High Theta-e ridge and CAPE entrainment.
6) No convective inhibition over land. That is no thermal inversion in boundary layer.
7) Deep moisture, low-level to upper-level as seen on water-vapor imagery. Lapse rate supportive for convection maintenance.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#8 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:07 pm

Very interesting.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#9 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:38 am

Interesting read:

How accurate was the forecast for Hurricane Michael?

http://wxguys.ssec.wisc.edu/2018/10/15/michael4cast/

Five days in advance of Hurricane Michael’s landfall, the National Hurricane Center forecast showed the storm making landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, with 80 mph winds, just above Category 1 hurricane force.

As we all know by now, the storm lashed the coast with winds in the 155-mph range, or strong Category 4 intensity.

Thus, as is often the case, the forecast of the storm’s path was excellent while the forecast of its intensity was not.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#10 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:45 pm

If Michael is upgraded to a category 5 postseason, will that make it the northernmost category 5 in the Atlantic?
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#11 Postby mitchell » Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:32 am

galaxy401 wrote:If Michael is upgraded to a category 5 postseason, will that make it the northernmost category 5 in the Atlantic?

If Hurricane Camille indeed made landfall at Pass Christian Mississippi, that looks to be slightly north of where Michael made landfall.

Prior to reanalysis in 2014, when it was downgraded from a 5 to a 4 (145 mph winds) Hurricane Dog (1950) might have been the northernmost 5 in the Atlantic, but since it was in the open ocean south of Bermuda at the time, and hurricane hunters were not continually monitoring, determining specifically how far north it held on as a 5 might have been difficult anyway.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:29 pm

mitchell wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:If Michael is upgraded to a category 5 postseason, will that make it the northernmost category 5 in the Atlantic?

If Hurricane Camille indeed made landfall at Pass Christian Mississippi, that looks to be slightly north of where Michael made landfall.

Prior to reanalysis in 2014, when it was downgraded from a 5 to a 4 (145 mph winds) Hurricane Dog (1950) might have been the northernmost 5 in the Atlantic, but since it was in the open ocean south of Bermuda at the time, and hurricane hunters were not continually monitoring, determining specifically how far north it held on as a 5 might have been difficult anyway.


The storms in the 1950s were often overestimated anyway. The lowest known pressure in Dog was 943 and it's unlikely it was lower than about 938 or so, which in that part of the world doesn't support cat 5.
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Re: Hurricane Michael In Perspective

#13 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Oct 30, 2018 11:49 am

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