Done! (US Only)

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Frank2
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Done! (US Only)

#1 Postby Frank2 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:18 am

According to Joe Bastardi (not my favorite pro met but he's been very accurate this year), the tropics would shut down after Michael, before a cold winter in the east sets in - so far he seems to be right.

See you next June!
Last edited by Frank2 on Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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floridasun78
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Re: Done!

#2 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:24 am

Bastardi likely be wrong front will not move Caribbean yet plus south fl wont see front likely untill after 15 of nov so water will still warm in carribbean we like see come to end but fl have hit by mostly hurr after oct 15
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mlfreeman
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Re: Done!

#3 Postby mlfreeman » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:53 am

I hope he's right, though I would never make such a proclamation before Halloween.
On the plus side, the model thread has been quiet since Thursday morning so at a minimum we're in a lull.
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Re: Done!

#4 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:59 pm

This thread may or may not be accurate. Time will tell and is quickly tilting in that direction. It's a challenge when we have agenda driven posters on both sides quickly proclaiming victory for their side. The facts often reside somewhere in between. I'd guess the odds favor accuracy here but considering it's still mid October, the sea temps around florida remain above normal and temps are expected to remain above normal for the foreseeable future (preserving anomalous oceanic warmth) I'd suggest the clock hasn't run out yet but it's perfectly reasonable to get antsy, especially after Michael. This season has been a great reminder that the weather doesn't care about what one wants or desires, it just does what it's going to do.
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Re: Done!

#5 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:56 pm

Frank2 wrote:According to Joe Bastardi (not my favorite pro met but he's been very accurate this year), the tropics would shut down after Michael, before a cold winter in the east sets in - so far he seems to be right.

See you next June!



The past 2 years have been very destructive, so a break would be nice.

Unfortunately, I think we may not be done just yet.

I’m not official, but I think the Caribbean will have one more hurricane. I also think there will be two more named systems out in the Atlantic- one being the central Atlantic blob and the other being a subtropical system in the middle of the Atlantic in a few weeks. Then we will have a late el nino winter.
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Re: Done!

#6 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:06 pm

Why can’t we just observe without the proclamations from either side? It’s October 13th. Not December 13th.
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Re: Done!

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:09 pm

Last I checked,the season officially ends on November 30th,not on October 13th.
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Re: Done!

#8 Postby Frank2 » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:53 pm

Yes, but the statistical end to the season is mid-late October, not November. There are the exceptions including Wilma, Lenny, Kate, etc., but thankfully they are the exceptions. The reasons I even posted this - opinion - at all is because the GFS shows a very strong high pressure pattern off the EC over the next few weeks, so very unlikely anything in the Caribbean would head this way. As said in the post, I'm not a fan of JB, but he and his staff have been exceptionally accurate this season, and it's his opinion that the tropics are shut down as of this week with a cold and stormy EC winter to follow. My sister lives in CO and tomorrow they are expecting a significant snowfall, so winter is upon us.

Perhaps I should have said the season is done as far as the US is concerned, because as we know in the southwestern Caribbean the season never really ends.

We shall see, but after disastrous Harvey, Irma and Maria of last year and Florence and Michael of this year, the US is ready for a long winter's nap...

Frank
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Re: Done!

#9 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:01 pm

Frank2 wrote:Yes, but the statistical end to the season is mid-late October, not November. There are the exceptions including Wilma, Lenny, Kate, etc., but thankfully they are the exceptions. The reasons I even posted this - opinion - at all is because the GFS shows a very strong high pressure pattern off the EC over the next few weeks, so very unlikely anything in the Caribbean would head this way. As said in the post, I'm not a fan of JB, but he and his staff have been exceptionally accurate this season, and it's his opinion that the tropics are shut down as of this week with a cold and stormy EC winter to follow. My sister lives in CO and tomorrow they are expecting a significant snowfall, so winter is upon us.

Perhaps I should have said the season is done as far as the US is concerned, because as we know in the southwestern Caribbean the season never really ends.

We shall see, but after disastrous Harvey, Irma and Maria of last year and Florence and Michael of this year, the US is ready for a long winter's nap...

Frank


I certainly hope that there is no more destruction this year and that any named storms that do form end up being fish storms.
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Re: Done!

#10 Postby norva13x » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:48 pm

We literally just had a storm that showed us how dangerous/wrong making assumptions can be.
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Re: Done!

#11 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:16 pm

Praying and hoping for seasons end....

Is this a scientific first place or am I in the wrong place?
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Re: Done!

#12 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:13 pm

norva13x wrote:We literally just had a storm that showed us how dangerous/wrong making assumptions can be.


Yeah the title of this thread is basically asking for trouble.
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Re: Done!

#13 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:15 pm

Frank2 wrote:According to Joe Bastardi (not my favorite pro met but he's been very accurate this year), the tropics would shut down after Michael, before a cold winter in the east sets in - so far he seems to be right.

See you next June!


His exact words were "the tropical strom threat to the United States would shut down after Micheal"; however he followed that up with there might be other storms, but only impacting the islands or Central America, not the U.S. mainland.

I heard his interview on several stations verbatim. While the U.S. might be relatively safe, which I agree with, the Caribbean and Latin America could or probably will be slammed.

Buckle up ladies, the Farmers Almanac has warned of a brutal winter also. :cold:
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Re: Done!

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:11 am

We're not done 'till we're done!

Don't know why Joe B. thinks it's ok to make such a bold statement on October 13th, it's like saying winter is over in the middle of January. Still, I think the U.S. is hopefully done with any more major impacts but you never know!
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Re: Done!

#15 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:59 am

Today's loop shows how far the strong westerlies have moved south (just north of the FL border) and probably why JB made his comment.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

In the end the westerlies really start and end the season - when they move north in May and when they move south in October...
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Re: Done!

#16 Postby terstorm1012 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:44 am

I'm cool with the season being at its close.

Not cool with a cold winter, that forecast very much can bust. :D
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Re: Done!

#17 Postby CourierPR » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:09 am

Frank2 wrote:According to Joe Bastardi (not my favorite pro met but he's been very accurate this year), the tropics would shut down after Michael, before a cold winter in the east sets in - so far he seems to be right.

See you next June!


JB issued a forecast last week calling for a storm coming NE out of the central Caribbean . Several days later, he had it impacting Central America. A day after that he had no new development.
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Re: Done!

#18 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 3:47 pm

I remember him saying that, too. Maybe I should change the topic to Done! (US Only), because the NHC has 2 areas in this afternoon's TWO, but both are supposed to continue west towards CA...

I recall waves continuing to move across the Atlantic into the Caribbean well into December, but most had little convection with them and if they flared up were quickly sheared, and the reason for making the original statement.

We shall see, but I know what it was like last year during Irma - 33 hours of misery, except for 1 hour, when I didn't think I'd live to see the next hour...

Frank
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:12 pm

There have been quite a number of very notable hurricanes that have formed in the second half of October or in November. Some of which hit the US.
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#20 Postby AJC3 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:29 pm

While we all hope this turns out to be the case, you're simply asking to be trolled mercilessly, should things not pan out this way, particularly for south Florida. This is especially the case, given your original choice for a thread title.
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