Done! (US Only)

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OiOya
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#21 Postby OiOya » Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:18 am

Given how this season has been, I can't help but feel this thread is tempting fate.
Tomorrow will be an anniversary for Wilma.
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#22 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:00 am

OiOya wrote:Given how this season has been, I can't help but feel this thread is tempting fate.
Tomorrow will be an anniversary for Wilma.


Shushhhhhhsh, THIS thread IS tempting fate! I mean, just look at the Nor'Easter the GFS-FV3 is threatening to park smack over Jacksonville, Fla.??!! Oh nooooooo, if we don't immediately stop with the "Season Over" posts, we're gonna start seeing October Bomb Cyclones popping up everywhere :lol:

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Re: Done! (US Only)

#23 Postby OiOya » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:07 am

chaser1 wrote:
OiOya wrote:Given how this season has been, I can't help but feel this thread is tempting fate.
Tomorrow will be an anniversary for Wilma.


Shushhhhhhsh, THIS thread IS tempting fate! I mean, just look at the Nor'Easter the GFS-FV3 is threatening to park smack over Jacksonville, Fla.??!! Oh nooooooo, if we don't immediately stop with the "Season Over" posts, we're gonna start seeing October Bomb Cyclones popping up everywhere :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/j5oDDcF.png


I about spat out my water omg LOL
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#24 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:20 am

OiOya wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
OiOya wrote:Given how this season has been, I can't help but feel this thread is tempting fate.
Tomorrow will be an anniversary for Wilma.


Shushhhhhhsh, THIS thread IS tempting fate! I mean, just look at the Nor'Easter the GFS-FV3 is threatening to park smack over Jacksonville, Fla.??!! Oh nooooooo, if we don't immediately stop with the "Season Over" posts, we're gonna start seeing October Bomb Cyclones popping up everywhere :lol:

https://i.imgur.com/j5oDDcF.png


I about spat out my water omg LOL


You'd think that since both of our states have already endured enough tropical mayhem for one season, that we'd get a pass as far as Fall Bomb Cyclones might be concerned - just wait..... :lol:
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#25 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:50 am

The GFS graphic is at 294 hours - the low will probably be gone in a couple of model runs...

This morning TWC was explaining how the first cold high or "blue northern" of the season will bring low maximum temps to all of Texas this week, so definite signs of an early Winter, per recent comments by Joe Bastardi (a record low max of 45 in Dallas today).

Many seasons end after mid-October, more than seasons that linger. There might be a depression in the NW Caribbean today, but its forecast to move into CA, the reason I changed the topic to include the US only.

As for tempting fate - I learned over the years what we hope, think or say outside of prayer has little bearing on world events - if something is meant to happen, it will. In my case, it's more just being optimistic - I'd be wrong to say it on September 15, but not October 15...

P.S. This morning Florida officials said almost 50 people are missing in the landfall areas. A number of residents left Florida after Irma and more likely after Michael. Like fire season out west, after a while the annual "walking on eggs" gets to be too much. I was an Andrew victim (not a survivor, because I evacuated - saved my life), but also suffered from Wilma damage, and became ill after Irma, so I've had enough, too...
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#26 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:24 am

Frank2 wrote:The GFS graphic is at 294 hours - the low will probably be gone in a couple of model runs...

This morning TWC was explaining how the first cold high or "blue northern" of the season will bring low maximum temps to all of Texas this week, so definite signs of an early Winter, per recent comments by Joe Bastardi.

Many seasons end after mid-October, more than seasons that linger. There might be a depression in the NW Caribbean today, but its forecast to move into CA, the reason I changed the topic to include the US only.

As for tempting fate - I learned over the years what we hope, think or say outside of prayer has little bearing on world events - if something is meant to happen, it will. In my case, it's more just being optimistic - I'd be wrong to say it on September 15, but not October 15...

P.S. This morning Florida officials said almost 50 people are missing in the landfall areas. A number of residents left Florida after Irma and more likely after Michael. Like fire season out west, after a while the annual "walking on eggs" gets to be too much. I was an Andrew victim (not a survivor, because I evacuated - saved my life), but also suffered from Wilma damage, and became ill after Irma, so I've had enough, too...


LOL make no mistake, Florida's population continues to explode.
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#27 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:30 am

This kind of discussion comes up every year when the Atlantic first quiets down and cold fronts start pushing farther south. While it is likely that the door is closing for U.S. impacts, you never know for sure. I don't buy into the "season ending cold front" myth.

Statistically, the month of November averages one named storm about every two out of three years, with these systems occasionally becoming hurricanes or even, though rarely, major hurricanes. While it is very rare for systems to affect the US in November, it has happened before (such as Kate in 1985 and Ida in 2009). The end date for the season (November 30) is fine.
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#28 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:46 am

Yes, I was still plotting surface maps when Kate came along, but it is rare. In that event, it was a summer-like Atlantic high that allowed a wave to develop and move west.

But behind Kate's landfall in the Tallahassee area were freezing temperatures the next night. In fact when it made landfall, Birmingham was in the low 30s...

Many posters here are young, but when you get older the annual roller-coaster ride becomes more painful on the body and mind. Andrew taught me there's nothing wrong with blue skies and a light breeze...

Frank
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#29 Postby psyclone » Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:58 am

Kate is the classic "it's not over til it's over storm". Definitely a rare beast. Not a shock that cold temps followed the storm but what I find amazing is the extent of the cold that preceded the storm with near freezing temps in the panhandle the week prior. And of course, toss in the landfall point...Mexico Beach. yikes
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#30 Postby marco_islander » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:26 pm

P.S. This morning Florida officials said almost 50 people are missing in the landfall areas. A number of residents left Florida after Irma and more likely after Michael. Like fire season out west, after a while the annual "walking on eggs" gets to be too much. I was an Andrew victim (not a survivor, because I evacuated - saved my life), but also suffered from Wilma damage, and became ill after Irma, so I've had enough, too...


We're planning on leaving Florida, too, after my daughter graduates from high school. If we get another direct hit, we'll go sooner. Many families we know are saying the exact same thing. We've lived here for 20 years full time, and I've been vacationing since the mid-70's. Too many close calls (and direct hits, with Wilma and Irma) to be able to live here in peace. Enough is enough. I know a lot of people LOVE it down here, but we're ready to get back to seasonal weather.
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Re: Done! (US Only)

#31 Postby Frank2 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:02 pm

Here's a photo taken the day or two after Andrew of the Dadeland Mobile Home Park near the Miami zoo - similar to Michael:

https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=ht ... AHoECAUQBg
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