Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

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banksmanforever
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Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#1 Postby banksmanforever » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:17 pm

Wave approaching the Caribbean looks interesting... does it have any chance of developing
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#2 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:47 pm

banksmanforever wrote:Wave approaching the Caribbean looks interesting... does it have any chance of developing


I hope not. We don't need any more mischief from the tropics this season for sure after Michael, but I am well aware we must keep watching the Caribbean this late into the season.

The disturbed area has flared today in association with a surface trough near Puerto Rico and to the north of there. Again, if the disturbance can find an area of decreasing shear or find a sweet spot down there, then it could have a shot. Again, I hope it falls apart!!
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#3 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:07 pm

Yea it looked like it was spinning a bit- will watch- got a lot of shear in the Caribbean but if it can stay out of the shear maybe something short lived out there- or it could just get ripped apart we’ll see
https://photos.app.goo.gl/UJs4HTP9NbEbgzi8A
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#4 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:30 pm

Oops. I accidentally talked about the disturbance near Puerto Rico rather than the other disturbance farther east in the tropical Atlantic which this thread referenced. I apologize.

Both areas (The one with surface trough near Puerto Rico and the one approaching the Lesser Antilles) look intriguing this evening.
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#5 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:18 pm

That flareup several hundred miles ESE of Barbados certainly has my attention as circulation is showing up very clearly on shortwave infrared. Flashbacks of Tomas in 2010).

Image
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#6 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:27 pm

abajan wrote:That flareup several hundred miles ESE of Barbados certainly has my attention as circulation is showing up very clearly on shortwave infrared. Flashbacks of Tomas in 2010).

https://i.imgur.com/oK2Eg8l.gif



I agree. This disturbed area appears to have a bit better environment conducive for some development as opposed to the other disturbance over near Puerto Rico currently. There is some spin with the disturbance farther east.
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#7 Postby EquusStorm » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:32 pm

Seems to be very little shear down there in the immediate area but it increases approaching the southern Lesser Antilles... wow that's a low latitude system. Could get a brief Nadine-like thing out of it maybe.
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#8 Postby StruThiO » Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:45 pm

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable. This wave is expected
to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#9 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:18 pm

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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#10 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:27 pm

With nhc now mentioning it and how organization has increased some today- I think we get a brief named storm that lasts a day or two before being shredded by shear to the west.
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#11 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:33 am

2am EDT:
Remains at 10/10

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slight development
of this system is possible during the next day or two before
environmental conditions become unfavorable. This wave is expected
to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:44 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad, low-latitude tropical wave located more than 800 miles east
of French Guiana is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized thunderstorms. Some slight development of this system
is possible during the next day or two before upper-level winds
become unfavorable around mid-week, prior to the disturbance
reaching the northeastern coast of South America. This wave is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:42 pm

2 PM TWO:

A broad, low-latitude tropical wave located more than 800 miles east
of French Guiana is producing a large area of cloudiness and
disorganized shower activity. Any development of this system should
be slow to occur during the next couple of days before upper-level
winds become unfavorable around mid-week, prior to the disturbance
reaching the northeastern coast of South America. This wave is
expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: Interesting wave approaching the Caribbean from Africa

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:56 pm

Down to 0%.

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased and become less organized
in association with a low-latitude tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of French Guiana. This wave is expected to move
westward at about 15 mph during the next few days, and development
is not anticipated due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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