Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic (Is INVEST 96L)

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StruThiO
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Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic (Is INVEST 96L)

#1 Postby StruThiO » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:52 pm

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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#2 Postby gatorcane » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:12 pm

Euro with a recurve in the Bahamas:

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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Nov 09, 2018 7:34 pm

Well this came out of nowhere! Really was beginning to think we’re probably done for good.
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#4 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:26 pm

I hadn't even thought about the tropics for a while, until earlier today when for some reason I started wondering if the Atlantic was done or not.
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#5 Postby StruThiO » Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:36 pm

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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#6 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:42 am

Rare for November. :)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected during the next few days
due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, some
subtropical or tropical development is possible around the middle
of next week when the system moves near or to the north of the
Greater Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#7 Postby NDG » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:23 am

GFS has been fairly persistent in this TW developing north of Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 10, 2018 6:57 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development of this system is not expected during the next couple of
days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, some
subtropical or tropical development is possible around the middle
of next week when the system moves near or to the north of the
Greater Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#9 Postby Buck » Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:39 am

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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:49 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Significant development of this system is not expected during the
next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds. However, these
winds are forecast to lessen by Tuesday, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form during the middle of next week while
the system moves near or north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the
southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Blake


Image
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#11 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:11 pm

Models?
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#12 Postby Buck » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:35 pm

Oooh! Up to 40. Would love for the season to reach Patty, even Rafael.
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#13 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:46 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Models?


Image

Image

Image

Image

Image


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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#14 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:05 pm

hope don't get close south fl i have fair at my church next weekend no system please but what i seen look turn ne east of Bahama
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#15 Postby Buck » Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:10 pm

floridasun78 wrote:hope don't get close south fl i have fair at my church next weekend no system please but what i seen look turn ne east of Bahama


I think it would be unusual for it to make it that far west, but as we've seen too often, anything can happen.
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#16 Postby StruThiO » Sat Nov 10, 2018 7:07 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness
and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not
expected during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level
winds. However, conditions are forecast to become a little more
conducive by Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could
form during the middle of next week while the system moves near or
north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Surface trough extending south from near Bermuda

#17 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Nov 10, 2018 8:34 pm

18Z GFS is spinning up a 996 mb tropical cyclone north and northeast of Hispaniola within 78 hours moving w/nw, then becoming a Cat 1 tropical cyclone as it turns north well east of the Bahamas in 120 hours.

So, if you are to believe the GFS, it wants to gives us one more named storm for a farewell to the 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. We shall see how this plays out...
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Re: Surface trough extending south from near Bermuda

#18 Postby Buck » Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:29 pm

northjaxpro wrote:18Z GFS is spinning up a 996 mb tropical cyclone north and northeast of Hispaniola within 78 hours moving w/nw, then becoming a Cat 1 tropical cyclone as it turns north well east of the Bahamas in 120 hours.

So, if you are to believe the GFS, it wants to gives us one more named storm for a farewell to the 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. We shall see how this plays out...


Bring it on.
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#19 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:22 am

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser has increased in organization
during the past several hours and satellite data indicate that the
wave is producing strong gusty winds. No significant development of
this system is anticipated during the next couple of days, but
conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive by
Tuesday, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form during the
middle of next week while the system moves near or north of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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Re: Tropical wave in central tropical Atlantic

#20 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Nov 11, 2018 1:06 am

One last time...I need a storm to track...to take this home.
One more time...I promise after that...I''ll let you go.

Kate 2015 2.0 would be cute.
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