Biggies for 2019!

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DioBrando
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Biggies for 2019!

#1 Postby DioBrando » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:20 pm

Predict the biggies for 2019, now that the 2018 season is long done!
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#2 Postby DioBrando » Sun Dec 02, 2018 4:22 pm

I predict it'll start off very slowly, and we get to about 12 named storms, give or take 1. 12-5-2 is my prediction, with the strongest storms happening in October. Italic storms are hurricanes and bolded storms are majors, though this can go anywhere. This is a mere prediction and it's not set in stone.

June = Andrea

July = Bazza (weakest)

August = Chantal, Dory

September = Erin, Fernand, Gabby

October = Humberto (strongest), Immy, Jezza, Kazza

November = Lorenzo

However, I predict the first prediction to be released by agencies will be closer to 8-4-2.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#3 Postby HurricaneRyan » Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:50 pm

One thing I would like to point out is that this list in particular has never failed to have a retired storm come from it. 1983, 1989, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2013 all had at least one name removed from the list. The fact that even in the least active hurricane season on record (1983) and the most recent dud of a season we have had (2013), they still managed to get one name retired on both seasons (Alicia and Ingrid).

I have a feeling it will be Gabrielle. It will be 30 years since it last was a major next year, and it along with Helene are two 1980s fish storm majors that stick out to me. Helene was a Cat 2 hurricane this year so I could see Gabby being a Cat 3 and hitting somewhere. If not with an original name, Humberto might be a big one. It always ends up being a hurricane, and was one of the only two in 2013 to do so.

So Gabrielle and Humberto are my picks.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#4 Postby DioBrando » Sun Dec 02, 2018 8:41 pm

HurricaneRyan wrote:One thing I would like to point out is that this list in particular has never failed to have a retired storm come from it. 1983, 1989, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2013 all had at least one name removed from the list. The fact that even in the least active hurricane season on record (1983) and the most recent dud of a season we have had (2013), they still managed to get one name retired on both seasons (Alicia and Ingrid).

I have a feeling it will be Gabrielle. It will be 30 years since it last was a major next year, and it along with Helene are two 1980s fish storm majors that stick out to me. Helene was a Cat 2 hurricane this year so I could see Gabby being a Cat 3 and hitting somewhere. If not with an original name, Humberto might be a big one. It always ends up being a hurricane, and was one of the only two in 2013 to do so.

So Gabrielle and Humberto are my picks.

to be fair, gabby might make a comeback as you said but I see her as a strong TS or maybe a C1... idk tho
humberto always has this resilience about him. even in the worst of conditions, he still manages to outshine the rest as he proved in 2013.

like, gordon was always a hurricane but in 2018 he failed to become one. i just don't see that with humberto.
what kind of season do you predict?
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#5 Postby BadLarry95 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 1:31 pm

Erin, Jerry, Karen
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#6 Postby DioBrando » Mon Dec 03, 2018 2:12 pm

BadLarry95 wrote:Erin, Jerry, Karen

ok, why those three?
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#7 Postby BadLarry95 » Mon Dec 03, 2018 5:48 pm

DioBrando wrote:
BadLarry95 wrote:Erin, Jerry, Karen

ok, why those three?


Slow start gives us Erin in the middle of August
Jerry and Karen will be next years Harvey-Irma.

I was right about Florence and Michael this year. I just struck out on Isaac
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#8 Postby DioBrando » Tue Dec 04, 2018 3:08 am

BadLarry95 wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
BadLarry95 wrote:Erin, Jerry, Karen

ok, why those three?


Slow start gives us Erin in the middle of August
Jerry and Karen will be next years Harvey-Irma.

I was right about Florence and Michael this year. I just struck out on Isaac

For some reason I agree with you with Karen, but I see Humberto as her evil twin rather than Jerry. IDK, but I can just see it. Throughout his history even in the most treacherous of conditions (2013, we're looking at you) he still manages to look good. Humberto and Karen are wicked twins wreaking havoc in October (but of course, let's hope not). Agreed with the Erin bit but replace with Fernand.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#9 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Dec 13, 2018 11:59 pm

Imelda.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:41 pm

Here’s my thoughts based on what the CFS shear forecast for the 2019 hurricane season

Andrea: forms in the Bahamas June 10th and peaks at 60mph as it transitions to extra tropical

Barry: Forms July 29th south of Cuba and heads NW and peaks in the central GOM as a 80mph hurricane and landfalls in Gulfport as a 75mph hurricane August 1st

CHANTAL: first major of the year forms east of the Lesser Antilles and makes landfall in Jamaica as a 115mph hurricane August 10th and continues to head wnw peaking at Cancun landfall as a 175mph hurricane August 12th and makes a second landfall as a 130mph hurricane near Brownsville August 15th

Dean: forms east of Bermuda August 13th and peaks at 65mph as it goes out to sea

ERIN: forms August 17th near the CV islands and heads west towards Barbados August 21st as a 100mph hurricane then turns more WNW and peaks at 175 mph south of Jamaica and turns NW towards and hits the western top of Cuba as a 150mph hurricane August 24th and turns north to NNE making landfall north of Tampa as a 120mph hurricane the next day dissipating over the SEUS August 28th

Fernand: forms off North Carolina August 23rd and makes landfall in Norfolk Virginia as a 45mph Ts on The same day

Gabrielle: forms September 1st near the African coast but dry air keeps it weak until 65w 20n on September 6th and turns out to sea as it peaks at 100mph

HUMBERTO: forms in the Bahamas September 9th and rapidly intensifies as peaks at landfall on cape hatteras as a 135mph hurricane September 11th and makes a second landfall in Warwick, Rhode Island as a 110mph hurricane September 13th

Imelda: forms near the Florida Panhandle on September 15th and landfalls at 40mph the same day

Jerry forms in the western Caribbean September 25th and peaks at 60mph at Belize landfall

Karen forms near Bermuda but is sheared and peaks at 50mph October 3rd

LORENZO: forms in the western Caribbean October 10th and rapidly intensifies to 195mph at the Yucatán channel October 14th and makes landfall near Cedar Key as a 145mph hurricane October15th
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#11 Postby Abdullah » Sun Dec 16, 2018 6:24 pm

Humberto and Lorenzo sound like the big ones to me.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#12 Postby DioBrando » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:28 am

Abdullah wrote:Humberto and Lorenzo sound like the big ones to me.

At what category do you predict these two storms to be like, and which previous storms would be similar to them?
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#13 Postby DioBrando » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:29 am

Hurricaneman wrote:Here’s my thoughts based on what the CFS shear forecast for the 2019 hurricane season

Andrea: forms in the Bahamas June 10th and peaks at 60mph as it transitions to extra tropical

Barry: Forms July 29th south of Cuba and heads NW and peaks in the central GOM as a 80mph hurricane and landfalls in Gulfport as a 75mph hurricane August 1st

CHANTAL: first major of the year forms east of the Lesser Antilles and makes landfall in Jamaica as a 115mph hurricane August 10th and continues to head wnw peaking at Cancun landfall as a 175mph hurricane August 12th and makes a second landfall as a 130mph hurricane near Brownsville August 15th

Dean: forms east of Bermuda August 13th and peaks at 65mph as it goes out to sea

ERIN: forms August 17th near the CV islands and heads west towards Barbados August 21st as a 100mph hurricane then turns more WNW and peaks at 175 mph south of Jamaica and turns NW towards and hits the western top of Cuba as a 150mph hurricane August 24th and turns north to NNE making landfall north of Tampa as a 120mph hurricane the next day dissipating over the SEUS August 28th

Fernand: forms off North Carolina August 23rd and makes landfall in Norfolk Virginia as a 45mph Ts on The same day

Gabrielle: forms September 1st near the African coast but dry air keeps it weak until 65w 20n on September 6th and turns out to sea as it peaks at 100mph

HUMBERTO: forms in the Bahamas September 9th and rapidly intensifies as peaks at landfall on cape hatteras as a 135mph hurricane September 11th and makes a second landfall in Warwick, Rhode Island as a 110mph hurricane September 13th

Imelda: forms near the Florida Panhandle on September 15th and landfalls at 40mph the same day

Jerry forms in the western Caribbean September 25th and peaks at 60mph at Belize landfall

Karen forms near Bermuda but is sheared and peaks at 50mph October 3rd

LORENZO: forms in the western Caribbean October 10th and rapidly intensifies to 195mph at the Yucatán channel October 14th and makes landfall near Cedar Key as a 145mph hurricane October15th

Those 4 majors seem mad! :(
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#14 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:56 am

Let me do 1 for WPac. :lol:

Based on the general consensus a moderate El-Nino will develop and persist in the first-half of 2019, activity will be above average. Activity may die down a bit in the late seasons though.

Predicted Cat 5s in 2019 WPac Season.

Mun: Forms in mid-April, the 4th storm and 1st cat 5 of the season. Peaks at 140 knots (260kph/160mph) and affects the Mariana Islands as a weak tropical storm.

Nari: Forms in early-June, the 6th storm and 2nd cat 5 of the season. Peaks at 140 knots (260kph/160mph) and bring some flooding to the Philippines.

Bailu: Forms in late-July, the 11th storm and 3rd cat 5 of the season. Peaks at 150 knots (280kph/170mph) and bring moderate damage to Taiwan and Ryukyu Islands after recurviture.

Lingling: Forms in early-August, the 13th storm and 4th cat 5 of the season. Peaks at 140 knots (260kph/160mph) and bring moderate damage to the Philippines and Southern China.

Matmo: Forms in early-October, the 22nd storm and 5th cat 5 of the season. Peaks at 150 knots (280kph/170mph) and doesn't affect any landmass.

Nakri: Forms in mid-October, the 24th storm and 6th cat 5 of the season. Peaks at 155 knots (290kph/180mph) and becomes the strongest storm in the season. It later brings moderate impact to Japan after landfalling as a cat 1 typhoon near Shikoku.

Fung-wong: Forms in late-November, the 27th storm and 7th cat 5 of the season. Peaks at 140 knots (260kph/160mph) in the open ocean. It traverses to the west and brings serious impact to the Philippines after weakening to a cat 2 typhoon.

Note: All the above information are purely hypothetical and may not happen.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#15 Postby GSBHurricane » Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:06 pm

This will probably defy predictions and logic but I think the big one in the Atlantic will be Van in October or November. It will pass Wilma as the strongest Atlantic Hurricane on record. It will make landfalls directly in Jamaica, Cancun, St. Petersburg (Florida), and New York City, all as major hurricanes. It will also be the first V name to be retired.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#16 Postby Abdullah » Wed Dec 26, 2018 11:48 am

DioBrando wrote:
Abdullah wrote:Humberto and Lorenzo sound like the big ones to me.

At what category do you predict these two storms to be like, and which previous storms would be similar to them?


Humberto - A large Cat. 4 fish storm. Similar Track to Gonzalo 2014, except everything 300 miles to the West

Lorenzo - A Storm that forms just west of the Yucatan with the wind field of Patricia that reaches similar levels of strength. Causes large panic in Veracruz, but dies out as quickly as it strengthened and hits Veracruz as a Rainstorm. 0 Deaths, 0 injuries, $1.09 of Damage.


After writing it down, Lorenzo seems silly.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#17 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:43 pm

Fernand, Imelda, and Nestor.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#18 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:47 pm

2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (worst-case scenario)

Named storms: 23
Hurricanes: 13
Major hurricanes: 8

BIG NAMES: Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Melissa, Nestor, Rebekah

PRECONDITIONS: Active African monsoon, warm MDR, and cool neutral ENSO.

RESULTS: Very active MDR, high proportion of intense storms to total NS, and high ACE.

For reference: my forecast (#24) for the 2018 season was 9/3/1 with an ACE index of 90.

Image

TS Andrea (20 – 22 June)
Peak: 50kt 1002mb
Landfall Veracruz: 50kt 1002mb

TS Barry (22 – 24 June)
Peak: 45kt 1003mb

H Chantal (28 June – 4 July)
Peak: 65kt 990mb
Landfall FL: 50kt 1002mb
Landfall SC: 65kt 990mb

TS Dorian (20 – 22 July)
Peak: 45kt 999mb
Landfall TX: 40kt 1002mb

TS Erin (28 – 31 July)
Peak: 45kt 1001mb
Landfall SW FL: 30kt 1006mb
Landfall NW FL: 45kt 1002mb

TS Fernand* (6 – 9 August)
Peak: 45kt 1000mb
Landfall LA: 45kt 1001mb
*Based on copious rainfall

MH Gabrielle (10 – 25 August)
Peak: 150kt 925mb
Landfall Barbuda: 130kt 933mb
Landfall St. Martin: 115kt 942mb
Landfall Anguilla: 115kt 943mb
Landfall Bimini: 80kt 969mb
Landfall SC: 85kt 966mb

MH Humberto (15 – 30 August)
Peak: 150kt 924mb
Landfall Guadeloupe: 150kt 924mb
Landfall San Salvador: 105kt 947mb
Landfall Cat Island: 105kt 945mb
Landfall Eleuthera: 110kt 942mb
Landfall Abaco Islands: 105kt 946mb
Landfall Grand Bahama: 110kt 942mb
Landfall FL: 130kt 933mb

MH Imelda (20 August – 6 September)
Peak: 135kt 932mb
Landfall NC: 115kt 936mb

MH Jerry (1 – 15 September)
Peak: 125kt 935mb
Landfall NC: 100kt 949mb
Landfall MD: 65kt 967mb
Landfall ME: 45kt 991mb
Landfall New Brunswick: 45kt 989mb

MH Karen (6 – 22 September)
Peak: 120kt 934mb

H Lorenzo (15 – 19 September)
Peak: 80kt 978mb
Landfall AL: 65kt 988mb

MH Melissa (19 September – 1 October)
Peak: 150kt 920mb
Landfall Trinidad: 105kt 960mb
Landfall Jamaica: 105kt 957mb
Landfall Útila: 135kt 931mb
Landfall Roatán: 125kt 935mb
Landfall Belize: 100kt 954mb

MH Nestor (22 September – 1 October)
Peak: 145kt 916mb
Landfall Quintana Roo (Yucatán): 90kt 971mb
Landfall FL: 125kt 925mb

H Olga (23 September – 2 October)
Peak: 75kt 977mb

TS Pablo (25 – 28 September)
Peak: 55kt 986mb

MH Rebekah (1 – 20 October)
Peak: 145kt 926mb
Landfall Cuba: 135kt 931mb
Landfall Abaco Islands: 115kt 936mb

TS Sebastien (5 – 10 October)
Peak: 50kt 993mb

H Tanya (7 – 18 October)
Peak: 95kt 964mb
Landfall Maio, Cabo Verde: 90kt 967mb

H Van (6 – 13 November)
Peak: 75kt 962mb
Landfall St. Kitts: 25kt 1003mb
Landfall Newfoundland: 50kt 981mb

TS Wendy (8 – 10 November)
Peak: 60kt 990mb
Landfall Belize: 60kt 990mb

STS Alpha (13 – 15 December)
Peak: 50kt 991mb
Landfall Cuba: 50kt 993mb
Landfall Mayaguana: 40kt 997mb

TS Beta (18 – 20 December)
Peak: 40kt 999mb
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#19 Postby DioBrando » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:00 pm

Shell Mound wrote:2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (worst-case scenario)

Named storms: 23
Hurricanes: 13
Major hurricanes: 8

BIG NAMES: Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Melissa, Nestor, Rebekah

PRECONDITIONS: Active African monsoon, warm MDR, and cool neutral ENSO.

RESULTS: Very active MDR, high proportion of intense storms to total NS, and high ACE.

For reference: my forecast (#24) for the 2018 season was 9/3/1 with an ACE index of 90.

https://i.imgur.com/bErFdws.png

TS Andrea (20 – 22 June)
Peak: 50kt 1002mb
Landfall Veracruz: 50kt 1002mb

TS Barry (22 – 24 June)
Peak: 45kt 1003mb

H Chantal (28 June – 4 July)
Peak: 65kt 990mb
Landfall FL: 50kt 1002mb
Landfall SC: 65kt 990mb

TS Dorian (20 – 22 July)
Peak: 45kt 999mb
Landfall TX: 40kt 1002mb

TS Erin (28 – 31 July)
Peak: 45kt 1001mb
Landfall SW FL: 30kt 1006mb
Landfall NW FL: 45kt 1002mb

TS Fernand* (6 – 9 August)
Peak: 45kt 1000mb
Landfall LA: 45kt 1001mb
*Based on copious rainfall

MH Gabrielle (10 – 25 August)
Peak: 150kt 925mb
Landfall Barbuda: 130kt 933mb
Landfall St. Martin: 115kt 942mb
Landfall Anguilla: 115kt 943mb
Landfall Bimini: 80kt 969mb
Landfall SC: 85kt 966mb

MH Humberto (15 – 30 August)
Peak: 150kt 924mb
Landfall Guadeloupe: 150kt 924mb
Landfall San Salvador: 105kt 947mb
Landfall Cat Island: 105kt 945mb
Landfall Eleuthera: 110kt 942mb
Landfall Abaco Islands: 105kt 946mb
Landfall Grand Bahama: 110kt 942mb
Landfall FL: 130kt 933mb

MH Imelda (20 August – 6 September)
Peak: 135kt 932mb
Landfall NC: 115kt 936mb

MH Jerry (1 – 15 September)
Peak: 125kt 935mb
Landfall NC: 100kt 949mb
Landfall MD: 65kt 967mb
Landfall ME: 45kt 991mb
Landfall New Brunswick: 45kt 989mb

MH Karen (6 – 22 September)
Peak: 120kt 934mb

H Lorenzo (15 – 19 September)
Peak: 80kt 978mb
Landfall AL: 65kt 988mb

MH Melissa (19 September – 1 October)
Peak: 150kt 920mb
Landfall Trinidad: 105kt 960mb
Landfall Jamaica: 105kt 957mb
Landfall Útila: 135kt 931mb
Landfall Roatán: 125kt 935mb
Landfall Belize: 100kt 954mb

MH Nestor (22 September – 1 October)
Peak: 145kt 916mb
Landfall Quintana Roo (Yucatán): 90kt 971mb
Landfall FL: 125kt 925mb

H Olga (23 September – 2 October)
Peak: 75kt 977mb

TS Pablo (25 – 28 September)
Peak: 55kt 986mb

MH Rebekah (1 – 20 October)
Peak: 145kt 926mb
Landfall Cuba: 135kt 931mb
Landfall Abaco Islands: 115kt 936mb

TS Sebastien (5 – 10 October)
Peak: 50kt 993mb

H Tanya (7 – 18 October)
Peak: 95kt 964mb
Landfall Maio, Cabo Verde: 90kt 967mb

H Van (6 – 13 November)
Peak: 75kt 962mb
Landfall St. Kitts: 25kt 1003mb
Landfall Newfoundland: 50kt 981mb

TS Wendy (8 – 10 November)
Peak: 60kt 990mb
Landfall Belize: 60kt 990mb

STS Alpha (13 – 15 December)
Peak: 50kt 991mb
Landfall Cuba: 50kt 993mb
Landfall Mayaguana: 40kt 997mb

TS Beta (18 – 20 December)
Peak: 40kt 999mb

What if your 9-3-1 forecast verifies?
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#20 Postby DioBrando » Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:46 pm

UPDATED PREDICTION - NYE 2018
If there were to be Nino, regardless, I see the storms being quality over quantity this year.
Strongest storm, I predict, is located F-H in the alphabet. Both majors I predict are located in this group. (F and H)
We're likely going to finish at K, L or M.
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