Biggies for 2019!

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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#21 Postby Pressure » Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:31 pm

My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#22 Postby DioBrando » Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:46 pm

Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#23 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:04 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (worst-case scenario)
...

What if your 9-3-1 forecast verifies?

My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#24 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:28 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (worst-case scenario)
...

What if your 9-3-1 forecast verifies?

My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.

I thought a weak El Nino was predicted though? Where are you getting the information that a strong El Nino is forming?
At the moment, I've gone for 11-5-2, with Nino effects persisting.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#25 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:21 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
DioBrando wrote:What if your 9-3-1 forecast verifies?

My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.

I thought a weak El Nino was predicted though? Where are you getting the information that a strong El Nino is forming?
At the moment, I've gone for 11-5-2, with Nino effects persisting.

Please see further discussion here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120161. :wink:
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#26 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:17 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.

I thought a weak El Nino was predicted though? Where are you getting the information that a strong El Nino is forming?
At the moment, I've gone for 11-5-2, with Nino effects persisting.

Please see further discussion here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120161. :wink:

Seems plausible but I'm very hesitant to think it's going to be that strong so soon after 4 years....
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#27 Postby Abdullah » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:01 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole


Because it sounds like a monster...
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#28 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Abdullah wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole


Because it sounds like a monster...

agreed
i mean
either way, if it's active or inactive i still see humberto as one of the biggies :(
he's always been a hurricane
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#29 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:45 am

DioBrando wrote:
Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole

If Humberto (2007) has just a day extra over water it would’ve likely been Alicia 2.0, not that anyone isn’t aware of that possibility.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#30 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Feb 03, 2019 1:34 pm

Humberto and Imelda, and possibly Fernand (especially if it turns out to be a slower year).
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#31 Postby DioBrando » Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:06 pm

If Jerry gets retired, I lowkey want the replacement name to be either Johnny, Jonathan or Joseph ;)
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#32 Postby DioBrando » Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:26 pm

Here are some replacement names I wanna see on this particular naming list should any of them get retired this year!
Tell me whatcha think of them!

Andrea --> Asuka
Barry --> Bruno
Chantal --> Chika
Dorian --> Dio
Erin --> Eleanora
Fernand --> Feliciano
Gabrielle --> Giovanna
Humberto --> Hermes/Hayato
Imelda --> Izzy
Jerry --> Jonathan/Joseph
Karen --> Kira
Lorenzo --> Leone
Melissa --> Mia
Nestor --> Narciso
Olga --> Octavia
Pablo --> Paolo
Rebekah --> Ritsuko
Sebastien --> Stephane
Tanya --> Trish
Van --> Viktor
Wendy --> Winona

For Humberto and Jerry, of the names I wrote down, which choice seems a better fir and why?
I thought long and hard because I wanted the "replacement" names to fit the international feel of this particular naming list.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#33 Postby DioBrando » Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:37 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Humberto and Imelda, and possibly Fernand (especially if it turns out to be a slower year).

why those lot?
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#34 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:38 pm

DioBrando wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Humberto and Imelda, and possibly Fernand (especially if it turns out to be a slower year).

why those lot?


Oh geez...I don't think I can give a scientific explanation for that or whatever you're looking for. Certain names just pop into my head every year, I guess. My guesses are frequently wrong, but it's no big deal.
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Re: Biggies for 2019!

#35 Postby bg1 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:30 pm

The Atlantic will likely be below average due to a developing El Nino... so let's look at the Pacific!



Link: https://youtu.be/w_qJ5RwAY6Y

Notable storms:

TS Alvin- April 28 – May 3- 50 mph
Forms on April 28th, a record for the EPAC.

C1 Dalila- June 12 – June 17- 90 mph
Makes landfall at peak in Mexico in mid-June, causing over $3 billion in damage.
Replaced with Daisy for the 2025 list.

C4 Flossie- July 10 – July 23- 145 mph
Threatens to make landfall on the Big Island of Hawaii as a Cat 1 but makes a more northerly turn instead.

C5 Henriette- July 31 – September 2- 190 mph
Sets a record for longest duration as a tropical cyclone, at 33.5 days, and does it all east of the dateline.
Strongest and most intense (894 mb) hurricane ever recorded in the CPAC.
Holds Category 5 intensity for 3.75 consecutive days (90 hours).
ACE total: 88.735, world record.
Threatens to make landfall on the Big Island as a Cat 1 but dives to the southwest instead.

C4 Juliette- August 12 – August 19- 150 mph
Reaches Arizona as a tropical storm, the first since Nora in 1997.

C4 Ema- August 13 – August 19 (exited basin)- 130 mph
Holds Category 4/5 intensity in the CPAC/WPAC for 6.0 consecutive days (144 hours).

C5 Kiko- August 19 – August 29- 160 mph
Holds Category 5 intensity for 12 hours on August 23 while in the EPAC, concurrently with Henriette (CPAC) and Ema (WPAC).
Threatens to make landfall on Hawaii County as a Cat 1 from the NE, but suddenly slows almost to a complete halt 175 miles off the coast. 1.5 days of wind shear and upwelling dissipates the system.

C1 Mario- August 24 – August 27 (exited basin)- 90 mph
Makes landfall a bit west of Hurricane Barbara of 2013, but actually survives the crossover into the Gulf of Mexico! Washes ashore in Louisiana with 45 mph winds.

TS Hone- August 29 – September 9 (exited basin)- 65 mph
Actually leaves for the WPAC twice, only to return. Decides to retire there for good on the third crossover.

C3 Octave- August 30 – September 16- 120 mph
Ninth storm to form in August, tying a record (1968).
Threatens to make landfall on Mauna Loa as a Cat 1 from the SW! Deflected back toward the NW on approach.

C4 Raymond- September 10 – September 18- 150 mph
Passes through San Diego as a rapidly weakening tropical storm, the first California landfall since 1939.

C2 Wallis- October 17 - October 24- 110 mph
For the fifth time this season, Hawaii's easternmost island is threatened by a C1 hurricane. However, the incredibly fast forward speed (>30 mph) combined with a sudden wall of wind shear causes the storm to quickly decouple and lose its LLC about eight hours before landfall. Highest sustained winds ended up only being 73 mph, 13000 ft high on Mauna Kea.
The Big Island extends its hurricane-less streak to 148 years.

C5 York- November 8 – November 12- 175 mph
First Y storm since 1992.
Latest Category 5 on record.
Reaches Category 5 in 48 hours, a record.
Makes landfall in Mexico at 120 mph and causes over $4 billion in damage.
Replaced with Yardley for the 2021 list.

C1 Iona- December 7 – December 11 (exited basin)
Fifth CPAC formation.
Direct hit on one of the islands of Kiribati at peak.
Crosses over... to the SPAC? Reaches 0.9S before dissipating.

TS Alpha- December 27 – December 31
The record-breaking 25th storm of the EPAC.

Summary

EPAC: 25/17/11 (all records)
CPAC: 5/3/1
TOTAL: 30/20/12

ACE: 385
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