Biggies for 2019!

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Pressure
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 2:20 pm

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#21 Postby Pressure » Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:31 pm

My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981
0 likes   

User avatar
DioBrando
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#22 Postby DioBrando » Mon Dec 31, 2018 6:46 pm

Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole
0 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 317
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Pinellas County, FL ⟷ Scandinavia

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#23 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 01, 2019 12:04 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (worst-case scenario)
...

What if your 9-3-1 forecast verifies?

My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.
0 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005

User avatar
DioBrando
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#24 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jan 01, 2019 1:28 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON (worst-case scenario)
...

What if your 9-3-1 forecast verifies?

My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.

I thought a weak El Nino was predicted though? Where are you getting the information that a strong El Nino is forming?
At the moment, I've gone for 11-5-2, with Nino effects persisting.
0 likes   

User avatar
Shell Mound
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 317
Age: 26
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
Location: Pinellas County, FL ⟷ Scandinavia

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#25 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Jan 01, 2019 2:21 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
DioBrando wrote:What if your 9-3-1 forecast verifies?

My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.

I thought a weak El Nino was predicted though? Where are you getting the information that a strong El Nino is forming?
At the moment, I've gone for 11-5-2, with Nino effects persisting.

Please see further discussion here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120161. :wink:
0 likes   
Tracking weather since 1992 | Following S2K since 2005

User avatar
DioBrando
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#26 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jan 01, 2019 3:17 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:My initial outlook for 2019 actually does call for 9/3/1, owing to El Niño, and currently stands as is. However, if El Niño does not form, then the hypothetical "hyperactive" scenario applies to 2019. I think the most likely outcome for 2019 is either 1) a very inactive year, owing to strong El Niño (the most likely outcome in my preliminary estimation), or 2) a nearly record-breaking, extremely active year, owing to cool neutral ENSO. If ENSO were to return to cool neutral conditions, then the ensuing feedback may allow the AMO to recover to a positive state in time for the peak of the 2019 season.

I thought a weak El Nino was predicted though? Where are you getting the information that a strong El Nino is forming?
At the moment, I've gone for 11-5-2, with Nino effects persisting.

Please see further discussion here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120161. :wink:

Seems plausible but I'm very hesitant to think it's going to be that strong so soon after 4 years....
0 likes   

User avatar
Abdullah
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 103
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:28 pm
Location: Broward County, FL, Earth

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#27 Postby Abdullah » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:01 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole


Because it sounds like a monster...
1 likes   
Pakistani-American gone through
Irene '11 Matthew '16 Irma '17
Total Amateur
Don't take any posts too seriously that you see on top of this gray text.

User avatar
DioBrando
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2018 12:45 pm

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#28 Postby DioBrando » Tue Jan 01, 2019 8:07 pm

Abdullah wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole


Because it sounds like a monster...

agreed
i mean
either way, if it's active or inactive i still see humberto as one of the biggies :(
he's always been a hurricane
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5590
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Biggies for 2019!

#29 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:45 am

DioBrando wrote:
Pressure wrote:My gut right now has Erin, Humberto, and Lorenzo as the monsters.

Heres a hypothetical season I made not too long ago

Andrea June 3-8
50mph 1003mbar
Landfall June 7 at Gulf Shores, AL (45mph)

Barry June 28-30
45mph 1000mbar
Landfall June 30 on Antigua (35mph)

Chantal July 17-21
80mph 989mbar
Landfall July 19 Puerto Felipe Carillo, Quintana Roo, MX (80mph)

Dorian July 31-August 4
70mph 995mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Erin August 15-24
115mph 967mbar
Landfall August 22 Bermuda (50mph)

Fernand August 24-26
85mph 985mbar
No Landfall (Open Atl)

Gabrielle September 1-5
65mph 999mbar
No Landfall (Long lived MDR storm, dies before Antilles)

Humberto September 3-10
105mph 971mbar
Landfall September 9 Providence, RI (75mph)

Imelda September 7-10
40mph 1004mbar
Landfall September 9 Puerto Cabezas, Nic (40mph)

Jerry September 15-18
60mph 997mbar
No Landfall (NW before Antilles)

Karen September 22-27
90mph 979mbar
No Landfall (MDR Easterly Recurve)

Lorenzo September 30-October 8
125mph 950mbar
Landfall October 5 Pinar del Rio, Cuba (125mph)
Landfall October 6 Big Pine Key, FL (110mph)
Landfall October 6 Cape Sable, Fl (110mph)

Melissa October 21-23
45mph 1002mbar
Landfall October 22 Manzanillo, Cuba (45mph)

Storm Analogs for Hyp. season 2019

Andrea: Alberto 2018, Arlene 2005
Barry: TD 4 2017
Chantal: Ernesto 2012, Franklin 2017, Earl 2016
Dorian: ?
Erin: Erin 2001, Danielle 2010, Gert 1999, Felix 1995
Fernand: Karl 1980
Gabrielle: Josephine 2008
Humberto: Great 1944 Hurricane
Imelda: Matthew 2010, Beta 2005 (w/o intensity)
Jerry: Emily 1999
Karen: Ivan and Jeanne 1998, Earl 1980
Lorenzo: Hurricane 8 1948 (Easy) and Fox 1952
Melissa: Katrina 1981


why does everyone pick humberto as the scary one lole

If Humberto (2007) has just a day extra over water it would’ve likely been Alicia 2.0, not that anyone isn’t aware of that possibility.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests