Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:04 am

We kickoff 2019 predictions with CSU and TSR early outlooks.

CSU --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 018-12.pdf --- December 13 Seasonal Forecast

April 4-

TSR --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ec2019.pdf --- December 11 --- 11/5/2

April 5-

NOAA

Below are CSU extracts

1. AMO becomes very strong in 2019 and no El Niño occurs (resulting in a seasonal
average Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) activity of ~ 170) – 10% chance.
2. AMO is above average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 130) – 25% chance.
3. AMO is above average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 80) – 20% chance.
4. AMO is below average and no El Niño occurs (ACE ~ 80) – 30% chance.
5. AMO is below average and El Niño develops (ACE ~ 50) – 15% chance.

Summary
There is always considerable uncertainty as to how much activity an Atlantic
hurricane season is going to generate at such a long forecast lead time. We detail in this
outlook two key parameters that are critical for determining levels of Atlantic hurricane
activity: North Atlantic SSTs and ENSO. Currently, tropical and far North Atlantic SSTs
are slightly cooler than normal, but the CSU AMO index is at near average levels due to
anomalously low pressure averaged across the North Atlantic. The tropical Pacific is
currently characterized by warm neutral ENSO conditions. Most models predict that a
weak to moderate El Niño will develop in the next few months. There is considerable
uncertainty as to whether any El Niño does develop will persist through next year’s
hurricane season. We are closely monitoring these conditions and will have additional
extensive discussion with our early April outlook.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Dec 13, 2018 9:35 pm

A difficult prediction this far out (as it always is). However, my hunch is for a very active year.

For some reason, 4th years after strong El Ninos, then coming off a weak Nino, seems to always be very active: 1961, 1969, 1985 and 1995 the best examples, and they were all quite active. 2005 is arguably one too, although that was off the charts for activity.

That said, if a solid Nino settles in, the most comparable years become 1976 and 1991, fairly quiet years (2013 as well?).

I'm leaning towards the first scenario - and my early numbers would be a top-5 all time season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:48 pm

TSR was almost spot on with their first original predictions for this years season back last December, will they be close again?

I’d be leaning towards a below average year at the moment especially considering how slowly this El Niño is coming on. Not to mention when was the last time we saw four consecutive above average seasons in a row?
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:50 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:A difficult prediction this far out (as it always is). However, my hunch is for a very active year.

For some reason, 4th years after strong El Ninos, then coming off a weak Nino, seems to always be very active: 1961, 1969, 1985 and 1995 the best examples, and they were all quite active. 2005 is arguably one too, although that was off the charts for activity.

That said, if a solid Nino settles in, the most comparable years become 1976 and 1991, fairly quiet years (2013 as well?).

I'm leaning towards the first scenario - and my early numbers would be a top-5 all time season.

I hope you’re wrong, especially considering that the record breaking major hurricane drought for the U.S. is a distant memory now.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:29 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:TSR was almost spot on with their first original predictions for this years season back last December, will they be close again?

I’d be leaning towards a below average year at the moment especially considering how slowly this El Niño is coming on. Not to mention when was the last time we saw four consecutive above average seasons in a row?


1998-2001. Although 2000 and 2001 were only slightly above average (kinda like 2016 and 2018).
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#6 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:39 pm

i hope we get break have La Niña been bad season two year in row
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#7 Postby NotSparta » Sat Dec 15, 2018 8:35 am

It really depends on if the high is weak this winter (weakening SPV tends to cause that thru -NAO, but not guaranteed), and if the El Niño intensifies this winter. If it does, it will use up its warm pool quicker and get replaced by cooler ENSO for 2019. It is reminiscent to me of 2014 wrt ENSO, as there have been similar events in both yrs, and there is still a lot of WP heat content for an El Niño
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#8 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 15, 2018 5:55 pm

NotSparta wrote:It really depends on if the high is weak this winter (weakening SPV tends to cause that thru -NAO, but not guaranteed), and if the El Niño intensifies this winter. If it does, it will use up its warm pool quicker and get replaced by cooler ENSO for 2019. It is reminiscent to me of 2014 wrt ENSO, as there have been similar events in both yrs, and there is still a lot of WP heat content for an El Niño


This is what I'm seeing as well. Chips will fall in place in late January as historically that's when developed cold pools in the WPAC start to migrate to the EPAC. It's looking like 2019 will be a tough season to forecast as well. We had a lot of activity in the sub tropics for the 2018. My numbers for 2019 are going to be similar to 2018's final tally until proven otherwise.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#9 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Dec 15, 2018 9:24 pm

I have not thought much about the 2019 season yet, but based on history suggesting it is very rare for the Atlantic to have four above average seasons in a row I am currently leaning to slightly below to near average activity since many models show the Niño persisting or even strengthening. We really won't have a good idea what the 2019 season will be like for several months, but two factors that should be considered in predictions are potential subtropical activity as well as a likely continued strong African monsoon regardless of El Niño.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#10 Postby NotSparta » Sun Dec 16, 2018 7:36 am

CyclonicFury wrote:I have not thought much about the 2019 season yet, but based on history suggesting it is very rare for the Atlantic to have four above average seasons in a row I am currently leaning to slightly below to near average activity since many models show the Niño persisting or even strengthening. We really won't have a good idea what the 2019 season will be like for several months, but two factors that should be considered in predictions are potential subtropical activity as well as a likely continued strong African monsoon regardless of El Niño.


Yeah, will be interesting to analyze in the spring. AMO strength, ENSO signals, and definitely the WAM are three things I'll look at
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#11 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:27 pm

NotSparta wrote:It really depends on if the high is weak this winter (weakening SPV tends to cause that thru -NAO, but not guaranteed), and if the El Niño intensifies this winter. If it does, it will use up its warm pool quicker and get replaced by cooler ENSO for 2019. It is reminiscent to me of 2014 wrt ENSO, as there have been similar events in both yrs, and there is still a lot of WP heat content for an El Niño

Depending on the timing, we could see a slow start to the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, as El Niño may predominate early on. A weaker El Niño in the short term that lingers longer (and thus retains more oceanic heat content in the equatorial Pacific) may allow for an earlier start to the season vs. a stronger El Niño in the short term that dissipates faster down the road. The latter scenario may delay the start of the 2019 season but allow for more Atlantic TC activity, owing to dissipation of OHC in the tropical Pacific. A transition to cool neutral ENSO in time for the peak of the season may be more favourable for high levels of (intense) activity than either a continuation/redevelopment of El Niño or a less probable transition to weak La Niña conditions. So far, the signs in the Pacific seem to favour a potential return to El Niño in 2019-20, which would reduce overall activity in the Atlantic, since the current evolution is similar to that of 2014-15, with the weak +ENSO episode in 2018-19 presaging a stronger +ENSO in 2019-20.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#12 Postby Steve » Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:04 pm

Joe Bastardi put his early forecast out to the public on the Saturday summary. I watched it earlier today, and if I remember right, it was 10-15 NS, 4-7 H, 0-2 MH and 60-110 ACE. Lower end season with lesser us impacts, but feeling something due to the El Niño. He said his personal numbers are on the lower side for NS and H, but he feels like MH could be closer to 2. More info out in April - probably analogs and impact zones.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#13 Postby chaser1 » Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:48 pm

Steve wrote:Joe Bastardi put his early forecast out to the public on the Saturday summary. I watched it earlier today, and if I remember right, it was 10-15 NS, 4-7 H, 0-2 MH and 60-110 ACE. Lower end season with lesser us impacts, but feeling something due to the El Niño. He said his personal numbers are on the lower side for NS and H, but he feels like MH could be closer to 2. More info out in April - probably analogs and impact zones.


A bit of a broad range but sounds like what many are thinking 2019 might look like in a general ball-park sort of way. At the moment I was kinda kicking around the idea of 11/5/1 myself with one being a sub-trop between March and May.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#14 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:24 pm

Gonna be a tough forecast year again.

I don't disagree with JB's preliminary forecast. Despite the amount of El Nino's we've seen in the past 10 years, only 2009 truly shut down the Atlantic hurricane season.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#15 Postby NotSparta » Mon Mar 11, 2019 3:52 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Gonna be a tough forecast year again.

I don't disagree with JB's preliminary forecast. Despite the amount of El Nino's we've seen in the past 10 years, only 2009 truly shut down the Atlantic hurricane season.


I noticed that too. Especially 2015, highest ONI on record for peak season, yet it ends up being just below near average.

we're probably looking at another Niño for 2019 (unsure of strength for now, given SPB), I wonder how the Atlantic responds. It'll really depend on how the Monsoon is this yr as well as the TATL SSTAs.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#16 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:44 pm

I'll take JB ace with a grain of salt. Last year he gave an ace of 70 in May, CSU agreed in it's July release. 2018 ace was 127.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#17 Postby Pressure » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:20 pm

Just a brief reminder of the crazy storms that happed in an El Niño
Joaquin (2015)
Alicia (1983)
Betsy (1965)
Lili (2002)
Isidore (2002)
David (1979)
Anita (1977)


Modoki
Fantastic 4 Feat. Charley Frances Jeanne and Ivan
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#18 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:37 am

OuterBanker wrote:I'll take JB ace with a grain of salt. Last year he gave an ace of 70 in May, CSU agreed in it's July release. 2018 ace was 127.

He got ACE wrong but he nailed the impact risk areas. Also don't forget that the extra amount of Sub tropical systems skewered the numbers a bit.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#19 Postby NDG » Thu Mar 14, 2019 5:34 am

Kingarabian wrote:
OuterBanker wrote:I'll take JB ace with a grain of salt. Last year he gave an ace of 70 in May, CSU agreed in it's July release. 2018 ace was 127.

He got ACE wrong but he nailed the impact risk areas. Also don't forget that the extra amount of Sub tropical systems skewered the numbers a bit.


But as always JB also included the NE US as a high impact risk area, so he almost nailed it ;)
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