Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

The next 2 weeks will not have tropical activity in the Atlantic basin per CSU 2 week forecast.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0805.pdf

[wxman57]

Klotzbach told me this morning that the season update will be issued around 1730Z (1:30pm EDT / 12:30pm CDT).

[cycloneye]

Klotzbach told me this morning that the season update will be issued around 1730Z (1:30pm EDT / 12:30pm CDT).

Waiting for it to see if they increase,leave them the same (14/6/2) or go down.

[wxman57]

Klotzbach told me this morning that the season update will be issued around 1730Z (1:30pm EDT / 12:30pm CDT).

Waiting for it to see if they increase,leave them the same (14/6/2) or go down.

I don't see any reason to make any significant changes, except that "Hurricane" Barry was not anticipated in July. What does that mean for his update? You'll know in an hour.

[SFLcane]

Nothing that we don’t know already..normal season expected uptick should be expected within the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1158429962661224453

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1158429962661224453

I'm surprised they didn't go with 5-1-0 after reading some of the discussion in the indicators thread.

[wxman57]

Phil said he was going to leave the forecast the same, but Barry was upgraded to a hurricane last month so he added in one more hurricane to the original 6 forecast. Phil didn't agree with the upgrade.

[cycloneye]

TSR raises by one the number of named storms and their final forecast total is 13/6/2.Read the forecast at the link on the list at first post.

Extract of text.

The
forecast is slightly raised compared to TSR’s early July outlook due to the August-September trade wind
speed over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic now expected to be slightly more favourable for
hurricane development. This parameter influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) and
vertical wind shear in the main hurricane track region. Probability of exceedance is used to clarify
robustly and clearly the uncertainty associated with this outlook. In this way the chance of each hurricane
activity outcome occurring is given.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/1159481536045076480

[CyclonicFury]

It seems like they think the MDR will be active, unlike what JB and Ben Noll have been saying:

b. Predicted conditions in the MDR

SSTs are currently above average in the central and western MDR, and below average near Africa. The For the MDR as a whole SSTs during July were about 0.2°C above average. Climate models predict near- or slightly above-average SSTs during ASO, with most models predicting departures of around 0.2°C.

In the atmosphere, competing factors are currently present. Conditions over the eastern MDR and western Africa favor increased activity, and are associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah 2006, Klotzbach and Gray 2008). Conversely, conditions in the western MDR are consistent with reduced activity typically seen during El Niño.

Four inter-related atmospheric features are now present in the eastern MDR and western Africa in association with the ongoing high-activity era, and they are expected to persist. These factors include 1) an enhanced West African monsoon system, 2) anomalous westerly winds at 700-hPa and a more conducive African Easterly Jet, 3) an enhanced upper-level ridge, and 4) decreased vertical wind shear. These conditions directly contribute to increased hurricane activity in the eastern MDR.

In contrast, in the western MDR anomalously strong vertical wind shear and anomalous sinking motion have been present in association with El Niño. El Niño has now dissipated, and dynamical models predict a lessening of El Niño's impact on the vertical wind shear during ASO. The CFS Hi-Res and NMME models are predicting the anomalously strong shear to become confined to the western Caribbean Sea. The CFS Low-Res model is predicting near-average shear in that region, while the GFDL model is predicting below-average shear. Also, all four models are predicting below-average vertical wind shear across the northern MDR extending northward across the subtropical North Atlantic.

The activity within the MDR during ASO is the main contributor to the overall activity of the hurricane season. The combination of a more rapid demise of El Niño's lingering impacts, warmer SSTs in the MDR, weaker vertical wind shear, and a stronger West African monsoon favors hurricane activity near the upper ends of our predicted ranges. Conversely, if El Niño's lingering impacts are protracted and stronger, this would favor activity in the lower portion of the predicted ranges.

[SFLcane]

Folks keep in mind how the season starts has 0 barring on how it will end. All you need is a 4-6 week window with unfavorable steering currents and there goes your quite season. Be prepared!

[CourierPR]

Having been through Betsy in 65, Andrew in 92, and Wilma in 2005, I know it only takes one storm to make a mean season for some.

[cycloneye]

It seems like they think the MDR will be active, unlike what JB and Ben Noll have been saying:

b. Predicted conditions in the MDR

SSTs are currently above average in the central and western MDR, and below average near Africa. The For the MDR as a whole SSTs during July were about 0.2°C above average. Climate models predict near- or slightly above-average SSTs during ASO, with most models predicting departures of around 0.2°C.

In the atmosphere, competing factors are currently present. Conditions over the eastern MDR and western Africa favor increased activity, and are associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah 2006, Klotzbach and Gray 2008). Conversely, conditions in the western MDR are consistent with reduced activity typically seen during El Niño.

Four inter-related atmospheric features are now present in the eastern MDR and western Africa in association with the ongoing high-activity era, and they are expected to persist. These factors include 1) an enhanced West African monsoon system, 2) anomalous westerly winds at 700-hPa and a more conducive African Easterly Jet, 3) an enhanced upper-level ridge, and 4) decreased vertical wind shear. These conditions directly contribute to increased hurricane activity in the eastern MDR.

In contrast, in the western MDR anomalously strong vertical wind shear and anomalous sinking motion have been present in association with El Niño. El Niño has now dissipated, and dynamical models predict a lessening of El Niño's impact on the vertical wind shear during ASO. The CFS Hi-Res and NMME models are predicting the anomalously strong shear to become confined to the western Caribbean Sea. The CFS Low-Res model is predicting near-average shear in that region, while the GFDL model is predicting below-average shear. Also, all four models are predicting below-average vertical wind shear across the northern MDR extending northward across the subtropical North Atlantic.

The activity within the MDR during ASO is the main contributor to the overall activity of the hurricane season. The combination of a more rapid demise of El Niño's lingering impacts, warmer SSTs in the MDR, weaker vertical wind shear, and a stronger West African monsoon favors hurricane activity near the upper ends of our predicted ranges. Conversely, if El Niño's lingering impacts are protracted and stronger, this would favor activity in the lower portion of the predicted ranges.

I can't find this in the NOAA link that they posted.

[crownweather]

It seems like they think the MDR will be active, unlike what JB and Ben Noll have been saying:

b. Predicted conditions in the MDR

SSTs are currently above average in the central and western MDR, and below average near Africa. The For the MDR as a whole SSTs during July were about 0.2°C above average. Climate models predict near- or slightly above-average SSTs during ASO, with most models predicting departures of around 0.2°C.

In the atmosphere, competing factors are currently present. Conditions over the eastern MDR and western Africa favor increased activity, and are associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah 2006, Klotzbach and Gray 2008). Conversely, conditions in the western MDR are consistent with reduced activity typically seen during El Niño.

Four inter-related atmospheric features are now present in the eastern MDR and western Africa in association with the ongoing high-activity era, and they are expected to persist. These factors include 1) an enhanced West African monsoon system, 2) anomalous westerly winds at 700-hPa and a more conducive African Easterly Jet, 3) an enhanced upper-level ridge, and 4) decreased vertical wind shear. These conditions directly contribute to increased hurricane activity in the eastern MDR.

In contrast, in the western MDR anomalously strong vertical wind shear and anomalous sinking motion have been present in association with El Niño. El Niño has now dissipated, and dynamical models predict a lessening of El Niño's impact on the vertical wind shear during ASO. The CFS Hi-Res and NMME models are predicting the anomalously strong shear to become confined to the western Caribbean Sea. The CFS Low-Res model is predicting near-average shear in that region, while the GFDL model is predicting below-average shear. Also, all four models are predicting below-average vertical wind shear across the northern MDR extending northward across the subtropical North Atlantic.

The activity within the MDR during ASO is the main contributor to the overall activity of the hurricane season. The combination of a more rapid demise of El Niño's lingering impacts, warmer SSTs in the MDR, weaker vertical wind shear, and a stronger West African monsoon favors hurricane activity near the upper ends of our predicted ranges. Conversely, if El Niño's lingering impacts are protracted and stronger, this would favor activity in the lower portion of the predicted ranges.

I can't find this in the NOAA link that they posted.

[CyclonicFury]

It seems like they think the MDR will be active, unlike what JB and Ben Noll have been saying:

b. Predicted conditions in the MDR

SSTs are currently above average in the central and western MDR, and below average near Africa. The For the MDR as a whole SSTs during July were about 0.2°C above average. Climate models predict near- or slightly above-average SSTs during ASO, with most models predicting departures of around 0.2°C.

In the atmosphere, competing factors are currently present. Conditions over the eastern MDR and western Africa favor increased activity, and are associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah 2006, Klotzbach and Gray 2008). Conversely, conditions in the western MDR are consistent with reduced activity typically seen during El Niño.

Four inter-related atmospheric features are now present in the eastern MDR and western Africa in association with the ongoing high-activity era, and they are expected to persist. These factors include 1) an enhanced West African monsoon system, 2) anomalous westerly winds at 700-hPa and a more conducive African Easterly Jet, 3) an enhanced upper-level ridge, and 4) decreased vertical wind shear. These conditions directly contribute to increased hurricane activity in the eastern MDR.

In contrast, in the western MDR anomalously strong vertical wind shear and anomalous sinking motion have been present in association with El Niño. El Niño has now dissipated, and dynamical models predict a lessening of El Niño's impact on the vertical wind shear during ASO. The CFS Hi-Res and NMME models are predicting the anomalously strong shear to become confined to the western Caribbean Sea. The CFS Low-Res model is predicting near-average shear in that region, while the GFDL model is predicting below-average shear. Also, all four models are predicting below-average vertical wind shear across the northern MDR extending northward across the subtropical North Atlantic.

The activity within the MDR during ASO is the main contributor to the overall activity of the hurricane season. The combination of a more rapid demise of El Niño's lingering impacts, warmer SSTs in the MDR, weaker vertical wind shear, and a stronger West African monsoon favors hurricane activity near the upper ends of our predicted ranges. Conversely, if El Niño's lingering impacts are protracted and stronger, this would favor activity in the lower portion of the predicted ranges.

I can't find this in the NOAA link that they posted.

It's here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... cane.shtml

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1159500725682094082

[cycloneye]

The author of the forecast.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159510939370233856




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159510940712427521




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1159510942469828608

[TheStormExpert]

With more negative than positive going around regarding the supposedly unfavorable state of the Atlantic the lower end closer to 10/5/2 seems reasonable at the moment.

[cycloneye]

The 2 week forecast from August 19 thru September 1 from CSU calls for inactive period.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/si ... 9-0819.pdf