Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#121 Postby jconsor » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:04 pm

CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#122 Postby toad strangler » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:11 pm

jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


They get pretty specific with landfalls calling out FL as one of them :lol:
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#123 Postby crownweather » Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:23 pm

jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


An ACE of 150 would make for an absolute insane September, October and probably November. That switch would really need to be flipped on for this to happen.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#124 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:17 pm

toad strangler wrote:
jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


They get pretty specific with landfalls calling out FL as one of them :lol:


This is actually something the CFS has been pretty consistent on as well, that Florida is getting something this year.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#125 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:28 pm

jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf



150 ACE from here would be extremely backloaded... You would need several storms within the next few weeks. We shall see
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#126 Postby DioBrando » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:31 pm

jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf

Will seem difficult unless there's some storm that can generate maybe 50 ACE
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#127 Postby Hammy » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:31 pm

SFLcane wrote:
jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf



150 ACE from here would be extremely backloaded... You would need several storms within the next few weeks. We shall see


All you'd need to aide in that are 2-3 strong long-trackers with ~40 ACE each and a few more hurricanes about, so it's attainable if we have a good six weeks of favorable conditions.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#128 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:39 pm

toad strangler wrote:
jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


They get pretty specific with landfalls calling out FL as one of them :lol:


They say 2 in the U.S., and 1 in Florida. Is Florida no longer part of the U.S.? ;-) I know Dr. Curry. We discussed working together a few years ago. I'd be willing to bet that ACE will be quite a bit lower than 150, given that we may well not see another named storm through the first week of September.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#129 Postby LarryWx » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:42 pm

jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


Keep in mind that this was issued 8 crucial days ago rather than today. We’ve gone 8 days with nothing and with still not a whole lot showing on models. If they were to revise their forecast today, I bet they’d be less active than 150 ACE.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#130 Postby DioBrando » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:45 pm

Honestly about 110-120 seems reasonable if that was published today.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#131 Postby NotSparta » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:47 pm

DioBrando wrote:Honestly about 110-120 seems reasonable if that was published today.


That's a bit much, I don't think 30-40 ACE would be at stake in a single week
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#132 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 1:53 pm

LarryWx wrote:
jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


Keep in mind that this was issued 8 crucial days ago rather than today. We’ve gone 8 days with nothing and with still not a whole lot showing on models. If they were to revise their forecast today, I bet they’d be less active than 150 ACE.


Yeah, typically, we would have seen a significant ramp-up in activity by now. The 2019 season missed the on-ramp and is now on the feeder road.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#133 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


Keep in mind that this was issued 8 crucial days ago rather than today. We’ve gone 8 days with nothing and with still not a whole lot showing on models. If they were to revise their forecast today, I bet they’d be less active than 150 ACE.


Yeah, typically, we would have seen a significant ramp-up in activity by now. The 2019 season missed the on-ramp and is now on the feeder road.


This i do not get TODAY Aug 20 is always what we call time for the REAL season to get going which runs through Oct 20. I do not think we have missed anything going through aug without a storm will be rare BUT does not mean we still can't see 4-6 weeks of tracking storms. Plenty of time left

Numbers in a given season are not really that important it is the ones that make landfall that matter. Just 1
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#134 Postby jconsor » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:15 pm

I disagree. CFAN's outlook is based on large-scale atmosphere-ocean signals associated with active and inactive seasons, not based on model runs.

LarryWx wrote:
jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has been one of the best verifying Atlantic seasonal outlooks in recent years, issued their Aug update. They are forecasting 8 hurricanes, 2 more US hurricane landfalls, and ACE around 150.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_5 ... 39c9bb.pdf


Keep in mind that this was issued 8 crucial days ago rather than today. We’ve gone 8 days with nothing and with still not a whole lot showing on models. If they were to revise their forecast today, I bet they’d be less active than 150 ACE.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#135 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:53 pm

SFLcane wrote:This i do not get TODAY Aug 20 is always what we call time for the REAL season to get going which runs through Oct 20. I do not think we have missed anything going through aug without a storm will be rare BUT does not mean we still can't see 4-6 weeks of tracking storms. Plenty of time left

Numbers in a given season are not really that important it is the ones that make landfall that matter. Just 1


I don't think anyone here would suggest complacency. There were many seasons in the past with fewer than 10 named storms but with major impacts (1957, 1965, 1983, 1992, etc.). I suspect we will see a major hurricane in the Gulf, most likely late September or October. Watch out NE Gulf again. However, I still think that seasonal ACE will be well under 100, maybe under 60.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#136 Postby DioBrando » Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:59 pm

Just wait until we see another fish storm generating 50 ACE which honestly isn't out of the question at this rate given steering patterns
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#137 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:36 am

Joe Bastardi's season total numbers and ACE prediction may not verify but he absolutely nailed his pre-season high risk areas.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#138 Postby somethingfunny » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:55 am

Kingarabian wrote:Joe Bastardi's season total numbers and ACE prediction may not verify but he absolutely nailed his pre-season high risk areas.


I didn't see Bastardi's risk areas posted on this thread. Did I miss them? Unless it was this AccuWeather map:

Image

I did see Crownweather's that highlighted the Bahamas and north Carolina (among others) pretty well...

Image

It's odd how everyone agrees that Hispanola and southeast Cuba are like definitely at a low risk level despite how frequently they get hit. Same with the (already impacted by Fernand) Mexican Gulf Coast.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#139 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:47 pm

somethingfunny wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Joe Bastardi's season total numbers and ACE prediction may not verify but he absolutely nailed his pre-season high risk areas.


I didn't see Bastardi's risk areas posted on this thread. Did I miss them? Unless it was this AccuWeather map:

https://i.imgur.com/nBLjJbH.jpg

I did see Crownweather's that highlighted the Bahamas and north Carolina (among others) pretty well...

https://i.imgur.com/aFebvki.jpg

It's odd how everyone agrees that Hispanola and southeast Cuba are like definitely at a low risk level despite how frequently they get hit. Same with the (already impacted by Fernand) Mexican Gulf Coast.


He released it before the season started for his premium Weatherbell members. I no longer have the graphic but if I recall correctly, it looked like this:
--deleted picture due to error
If I'm not mistaken, this is where he thought would be the greatest chances for development.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#140 Postby MetroMike » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:58 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Joe Bastardi's season total numbers and ACE prediction may not verify but he absolutely nailed his pre-season high risk areas.


I didn't see Bastardi's risk areas posted on this thread. Did I miss them? Unless it was this AccuWeather map:

https://i.imgur.com/nBLjJbH.jpg

I did see Crownweather's that highlighted the Bahamas and north Carolina (among others) pretty well...

https://i.imgur.com/aFebvki.jpg

It's odd how everyone agrees that Hispanola and southeast Cuba are like definitely at a low risk level despite how frequently they get hit. Same with the (already impacted by Fernand) Mexican Gulf Coast.


He released it before the season started for his premium Weatherbell members. I no longer have the graphic but if I recall correctly, it looked like this:
https://i.imgur.com/CujXDmx.png
If I'm not mistaken, this is where he thought would be the greatest chances for development.



Actually have the link showing actual risk area


https://www.weatherbell.com/premium
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