Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#41 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:09 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:April 4 update from CSU goes with 13/5/2


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A bit higher than I was expecting, I think.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:10 am

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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#43 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:58 am


Dr. Klotzbach gave a very good and thorough presentation this morning during the release! It was so thorough and compelling no one had any questions. That is unusual when you have 115 weather nerds, NHC employees, NWS employees, and Broadcast meteorologists in one room!
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=13/5/2

#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 04, 2019 11:09 am

Link to the 35 page PDF text of CSU April 4 forecast is on the first post.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#45 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:10 pm

vbhoutex wrote:

Dr. Klotzbach gave a very good and thorough presentation this morning during the release! It was so thorough and compelling no one had any questions. That is unusual when you have 115 weather nerds, NHC employees, NWS employees, and Broadcast meteorologists in one room!


Quote from Jeff Masters...

April hurricane season forecasts have little or no skill
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no skill (Figure 3), since they must deal with the so-called "spring predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2018, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. This forecast ended up being successful, as the season actually had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 129.

If we only knew were those 13 storms are going to track? :roll:
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#46 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:40 pm

SFLcane wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:

Dr. Klotzbach gave a very good and thorough presentation this morning during the release! It was so thorough and compelling no one had any questions. That is unusual when you have 115 weather nerds, NHC employees, NWS employees, and Broadcast meteorologists in one room!


Quote from Jeff Masters...

April hurricane season forecasts have little or no skill
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no skill (Figure 3), since they must deal with the so-called "spring predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2018, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. This forecast ended up being successful, as the season actually had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 129.

If we only knew were those 13 storms are going to track? :roll:
That is the million dollar question. Too many parameters to have that kind of predictability this early.
While track prediction after initialization to landfall has gotten MUCH MUCH better, the intensity forecasts have a long way to go even though they are improving.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=13/5/2

#47 Postby Kazmit » Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:13 pm

Interesting forecast from the CSU- 13/5/2 is a near average season. We’ll have to see what happens with El Niño.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#48 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:50 pm

SFLcane wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:

Dr. Klotzbach gave a very good and thorough presentation this morning during the release! It was so thorough and compelling no one had any questions. That is unusual when you have 115 weather nerds, NHC employees, NWS employees, and Broadcast meteorologists in one room!


Quote from Jeff Masters...

April hurricane season forecasts have little or no skill
On average, April forecasts of hurricane season activity have had no skill (Figure 3), since they must deal with the so-called "spring predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Last year’s CSU April forecast called for a slightly above-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2018, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 130. This forecast ended up being successful, as the season actually had 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 129.

If we only knew were those 13 storms are going to track? :roll:


Quite a bit ironic. Last April's forecast was far more accurate than the July forecast (70 ace).
Kinda like forecasting the NCAA basketball brackets. And about as accurate.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=13/5/2

#49 Postby wxman57 » Thu Apr 04, 2019 10:35 pm

Kazmit wrote:Interesting forecast from the CSU- 13/5/2 is a near average season. We’ll have to see what happens with El Niño.


The 30-yr average is 14/7/3. His 80 ACE is well below average. Analog years we're using had an average ace < 50.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#50 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:46 am

What time does TSR release their updated forecast numbers?
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#51 Postby al78 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:32 am

TheStormExpert wrote:What time does TSR release their updated forecast numbers?


Within the next two hours.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#52 Postby al78 » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:41 am

al78 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:What time does TSR release their updated forecast numbers?


Within the next two hours.


http://tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRAT ... pr2019.pdf
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR=12/5/2

#53 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:36 pm

GWO is going with 13/6/2 if you want to add them.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU=13/5/2

#54 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Apr 05, 2019 12:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Interesting forecast from the CSU- 13/5/2 is a near average season. We’ll have to see what happens with El Niño.


The 30-yr average is 14/7/3. His 80 ACE is well below average. Analog years we're using had an average ace < 50.

With the way things look now I’d go with near average numbers but below average ACE.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:15 am

You can check all the predictions from the experts and agencies/private entities on the list at first post

Sorry but I never add GWO and this year is the same.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#56 Postby OuterBanker » Sat Apr 06, 2019 9:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:You can check all the predictions from the experts and agencies/private entities on the list at first post

Sorry but I never add GWO and this year is the same.


I agree on not including GWO. I have a hard time believing their 100 % claim.
I also have a problem with their rather exorbitant fees.
Just wondering though if anyone here has ever bitten the bullet and purchased anything from them.
I personally have never gone to a fortune teller. I feel that that's what GWO is like.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#57 Postby NotSparta » Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:45 am

OuterBanker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:You can check all the predictions from the experts and agencies/private entities on the list at first post

Sorry but I never add GWO and this year is the same.


I agree on not including GWO. I have a hard time believing their 100 % claim.
I also have a problem with their rather exorbitant fees.
Just wondering though if anyone here has ever bitten the bullet and purchased anything from them.
I personally have never gone to a fortune teller. I feel that that's what GWO is like.


I never purchased anything, but even the fcasts they post publicly on the site mysteriously change
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#58 Postby jconsor » Mon Apr 08, 2019 7:55 am

CFAN, which has a good track record past several years, is going for slightly above normal activity with forecast ACE of 125. They are one of the few outlets that forecast landfall numbers. They are forecasting two US landfalls, which is above normal as well

They note that their outlook is "subject to considerable remaining uncertainties due to conflicting stratospheric and tropospheric indicators in recent
months". The tropospheric indicators favor a very active season, while the stratospheric ones favor a quieter one.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_0 ... 1fd1ba.pdf
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#59 Postby chaser1 » Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:34 pm

jconsor wrote:CFAN, which has a good track record past several years, is going for slightly above normal activity with forecast ACE of 125. They are one of the few outlets that forecast landfall numbers. They are forecasting two US landfalls, which is above normal as well

They note that their outlook is "subject to considerable remaining uncertainties due to conflicting stratospheric and tropospheric indicators in recent
months". The tropospheric indicators favor a very active season, while the stratospheric ones favor a quieter one.

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/867d28_0 ... 1fd1ba.pdf


Thanks for the link! I found CFAN's analysis very interesting. Longer term stratospheric signals aside, i'm curiously surprised by their perception of nearer term "early season" enhanced favorable conditions for potential hurricane development. While early (even pre-season) Atlantic cyclone development often does go hand in hand with El Nino condition years, typically those systems are sub-tropical in origin, generally remain weak, remaining below hurricane threshold. If I'm reading their analysis and discussion correctly, they seem to suggest a greater then normal risk of early (or preseason) tropical development that would be stronger in intensity as compared to Climo and certainly statistically. This too might suggest a heightened early risk for those Gulf, Bahama, and N.W. Caribbean regions that might be most climatologist at risk based on typical early Atlantic season area's of subtropical or tropical formation. Of course, another potential outcome could simply be the early and stronger then normal development that originates North and East of the Bahamas which would likely track away from the CONUS and toward the N. Atlantic.
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Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#60 Postby jconsor » Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:37 pm

WeatherTiger, which also has a good track record past several years, posted their "first look" for the hurricane season.

Key points:
* WeatherTiger’s first look at the 2019 hurricane season is for near even chances of an above, below, or near normal year. The median of our forecast is about 105% of average hurricane season activity, or around seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
* This is slightly more aggressive than some other recently issued forecasts, likely due to our model’s skepticism towards the ongoing El Niño.
* Overall, model skill is very limited at this range, and all April hurricane seasonal outlooks should be regarded as low-confidence forecasts.

Full outlook: https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... pril-2019/
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