Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5936
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#61 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon May 06, 2019 5:59 am

The Weather Channel released their 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook this morning. They’re forecasting a slightly above average season with El Niño. Their numbers are 14/7/3.

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1125343677478526976


1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5936
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#62 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 21, 2019 10:29 am

UKMET calling for 13/7/3 from June-November for the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season (doesn’t include Andrea).

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1130842367303401472


1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116668
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#63 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 22, 2019 8:57 am

Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1131191026071351297




Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116668
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#64 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2019 10:18 am

3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1015
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Bermuda

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#65 Postby Kazmit » Thu May 23, 2019 10:21 am

:uarrow: Interesting how the chances for a below normal and above normal season are predicted as equal. That was not the case a couple months ago- the spring barrier really affects things.
1 likes   
Florence 2006, Bertha 2008, Igor 2010, Gabrielle 2013, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Karl 2016, Nicole 2016

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116668
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#66 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2019 10:39 am

Here is that part of the equal chances.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to November 30.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3663
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#67 Postby SFLcane » Thu May 23, 2019 11:02 am

Can’t go wrong there with those ranges I mean come on they're supposed to reflect the inherent uncertainty of these things. But a range of 9-15NS, 5-8H, 2-4 MH or whatever is basically useless. Only takes 1 guess
2 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2941
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#68 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 23, 2019 11:23 am

SFLcane wrote:Can’t go wrong there with those ranges I mean come on they're supposed to reflect the inherent uncertainty of these things. But a range of 9-15NS, 5-8H, 2-4 MH or whatever is basically useless. Only takes 1 guess


:hehe: So true!! So basically, if the year ends up ANYWHERE between 9/5/2 and 15/8/4...... They'll have "nailed it" :wink:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2941
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#69 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 23, 2019 11:34 am

SFLcane wrote:Can’t go wrong there with those ranges I mean come on they're supposed to reflect the inherent uncertainty of these things. But a range of 9-15NS, 5-8H, 2-4 MH or whatever is basically useless. Only takes 1 guess


The more I think about "this" forecast, the more it resembles a sports analyst suggesting that the Miami Dolphins have an 80% chance of winning somewhere between 4-10 games this season. Yeah, i'd take those Vegas odds. :cheesy:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5936
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#70 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 31, 2019 3:57 am

Wasn't TSR supposed to release their May Outlook yesterday?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116668
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#71 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 31, 2019 5:39 am

TheStormExpert wrote:Wasn't TSR supposed to release their May Outlook yesterday?


Is at the first post.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 116668
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU June 4 forecast=14/6/2

#72 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:00 am

CSU goes up a little bit 14/6/2.Here is the abstract.The whole discussion of forecast Is posted in the first post of the thread

We have increased our forecast slightly and now believe that 2019 will have
approximately average activity. There remains considerable uncertainty as to whether El
Niño conditions will persist through the Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical Atlantic
has warmed slightly faster than normal over the past few weeks and now has nearaverage sea surface temperatures. We anticipate a near-average probability for major
hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is
the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one
hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the
same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.


Image
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3663
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#73 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 06, 2019 4:31 pm

2 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3663
Age: 41
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Sunrise Florida

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#74 Postby SFLcane » Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:54 am

Pretty active season being predicted...15 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... june-2019/
2 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 206
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#75 Postby jconsor » Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:22 pm

University of Arizona outlook also favoring an active season with 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and 150 ACE:

http://has.arizona.edu/sites/default/fi ... 2019_0.pdf

"The Atlantic zonal pseudo-wind stress is actually the determining factor in making this an above average year. The values for this season are quite similar to what they were in 2017, which was a very active year. The difference, however, is this year does not feature the very warm SSTs that 2017 had. Still, this factor increases our prediction"
5 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10637
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#76 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:16 am

JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.
1 likes   

User avatar
ColdFusion
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 350
Joined: Wed Feb 13, 2008 3:46 pm
Location: Addison, TX

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#77 Postby ColdFusion » Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.


This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?
0 likes   

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 359
Age: 45
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Indian Orchard, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#78 Postby crownweather » Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:53 am

ColdFusion wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.


This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?


We are anything BUT an amateur or a hobbyist & you will find that we are just as professional as the big weather companies. In fact, we don't hype weather unlike some of the A&W media weather companies.
5 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18817
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#79 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:46 am

NDG wrote:JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.


Depends on what you define as "average". The average over the past 30 seasons is 14/7/3. Cool AMO cycles (like this year) tend to have fewer intense storms (2). I'm not seeing anything to suggest an above-normal season.
1 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 18817
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#80 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:51 am

crownweather wrote:
ColdFusion wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Crownweather Services increased the numbers to 14/7/3.


This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?


We are anything BUT an amateur or a hobbyist & you will find that we are just as professional as the big weather companies. In fact, we don't hype weather unlike some of the A&W media weather companies.


Your website doesn't mention anything about who Crown Weather Services is, or what your qualifications are. "Couldn't find an "about us" section.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: bohaiboy, Emmett_Brown, Javlin, stormlover2013, TexWx, tolakram, zal0phus and 37 guests