Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7866
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#81 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:26 am

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.


Depends on what you define as "average". The average over the past 30 seasons is 14/7/3. Cool AMO cycles (like this year) tend to have fewer intense storms (2). I'm not seeing anything to suggest an above-normal season.

We have a warmer MDR when compared to last year at this time, and a dwindling El Niño. Why the low expectations?
2 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

UFCountryMama85
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:40 pm

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#82 Postby UFCountryMama85 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:26 am

wxman57 wrote:
crownweather wrote:
ColdFusion wrote:
This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?


We are anything BUT an amateur or a hobbyist & you will find that we are just as professional as the big weather companies. In fact, we don't hype weather unlike some of the A&W media weather companies.


Your website doesn't mention anything about who Crown Weather Services is, or what your qualifications are. "Couldn't find an "about us" section.




Take it from a very much non qualified but weather obsessed stalker... they don't need an about us section to see it's not just amateurs who come here to chat about their weather hobby. If you observe the conversations long enough you will see that. And actually the mainstream "qualified" meteorologist could learn a few things here. There's a whole array of people on this site brought together by weather.
2 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 460
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Atlantic, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#83 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:36 am

I personally don't even think the 'way early' season predictions from these people should be made public. There is little to no accuracy and more times than not it is simply a semi-educated guess. Release one early or Mid May where you at least have a slightly better chance of getting it right I'm fine with those. We have a hard enough time seeing things more than a week out you are gonna try to tell me how Hurricane season is gonna play out a few months before it starts? Keep those predictions private until you can actually get decent repeatable accuracy.
0 likes   
96'-Bertha 96'-Fran 98'-Bonnie 99'-Dennis 99'-Floyd 03'-Isabel 04'-Alex 05'-Ophelia 11'-Irene 14'-Arthur 16'-Matthew 18'-Florence 19'-Dorian 20'-Isaias (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19803
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#84 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:49 am

UFCountryMama85 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
crownweather wrote:
We are anything BUT an amateur or a hobbyist & you will find that we are just as professional as the big weather companies. In fact, we don't hype weather unlike some of the A&W media weather companies.


Your website doesn't mention anything about who Crown Weather Services is, or what your qualifications are. "Couldn't find an "about us" section.




Take it from a very much non qualified but weather obsessed stalker... they don't need an about us section to see it's not just amateurs who come here to chat about their weather hobby. If you observe the conversations long enough you will see that. And actually the mainstream "qualified" meteorologist could learn a few things here. There's a whole array of people on this site brought together by weather.


I'm not talking about this site (S2K), I was merely stating that I could not find any information on Crown Weather Services site that identifies the person or persons running the site and making the predictions. For all anyone would know (visiting the CWS site), it's run by a 10 yr old kid. I only posed my original question because someone on this forum stated that they were not meteorologists (amateurs) and someone else said they're not amateurs. Which is it? I'm not putting those running the CWS site down, merely stating the fact that there is nothing on their websire that identifies their credentials.
1 likes   

UFCountryMama85
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:40 pm

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#85 Postby UFCountryMama85 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:
UFCountryMama85 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Your website doesn't mention anything about who Crown Weather Services is, or what your qualifications are. "Couldn't find an "about us" section.




Take it from a very much non qualified but weather obsessed stalker... they don't need an about us section to see it's not just amateurs who come here to chat about their weather hobby. If you observe the conversations long enough you will see that. And actually the mainstream "qualified" meteorologist could learn a few things here. There's a whole array of people on this site brought together by weather.


I'm not talking about this site (S2K), I was merely stating that I could not find any information on Crown Weather Services site that identifies the person or persons running the site and making the predictions. For all anyone would know (visiting the CWS site), it's run by a 10 yr old kid. I only posed my original question because someone on this forum stated that they were not meteorologists (amateurs) and someone else said they're not amateurs. Which is it? I'm not putting those running the CWS site down, merely stating the fact that there is nothing on their websire that identifies their credentials.


I obviously didn't read the previous messages correctly lol. I thought someone made the comment about amateurs & hobbyist regarding this website. Didn't pay attention to who was asking. Excuse my two cents lol
0 likes   

User avatar
crownweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 457
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Aug 12, 2006 9:21 am
Location: Indian Orchard, Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#86 Postby crownweather » Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
crownweather wrote:
ColdFusion wrote:
This is an amateur/hobbyist site, is that correct?


We are anything BUT an amateur or a hobbyist & you will find that we are just as professional as the big weather companies. In fact, we don't hype weather unlike some of the A&W media weather companies.


Your website doesn't mention anything about who Crown Weather Services is, or what your qualifications are. "Couldn't find an "about us" section.


That's actually a question that I'm not asked much, just because of the "word of mouth" from current subscribers of Crown Weather. But, since you asked, I'll be happy to answer your question -

I have always loved studying the weather. I was watching thunderstorms with fascination at the age of 4. During elementary and middle school, I used to hand draw my own weather maps and present the daily weather to my class. I was the kid always staring out the window looking at the weather. In fact, you’ll still find me doing this same thing on most days. I've been fascinated by hurricanes since Gloria knocked a tree onto our house on September 27, 1985.

My professional weather forecasting career began right after I graduated High School in 1992. For a little over 3 years, while I went to the University of Maine, I was a student intern with the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine. In that position, I learned how to analyze weather patterns, write a daily weather forecast, observe every day weather conditions and present those findings to individuals, including pilots, farmers and anyone else who needed weather information.

In the Winter of 1994, I formed Crown Weather Services. I have worked to build this business ever since. I have been forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes for over 25 years and have covered important hurricanes, including, but definitely not limited to, Opal (1995), Fran (1996), Floyd (1999), Katrina & Rita (2005), Ike (2008), Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Irma & Maria (2017) and Michael (2018).

Crown Weather has always been and always will be a very small, "Mom and Pop" type weather company. I try to get to know each one of my customer & their weather needs - many of which have become friends (which makes it very hard when they are directly threatened by a hurricane).

My philosophy with forecasting any type of weather is simple. Integrity, honesty, clarity and accountability is everything to me. I work hard to deliver weather information that is simple and easy to understand, without the hype and noise that comes from many forms of media. If a forecast is wrong, I hold myself accountable for that. I have very high levels of standard in what I do.

Not sure what else to write about me, except to say that I'm not a hobbyist, an amateur or a fly by night organization.
12 likes   
Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
https://crownweather.com

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#87 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:13 pm

I have followed rob for a long time!! He’s great at what he does!!
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120771
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#88 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:25 pm

To end this thing,Rob told me to take him out of the list so I did so.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12769
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#89 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 18, 2019 5:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.


Depends on what you define as "average". The average over the past 30 seasons is 14/7/3. Cool AMO cycles (like this year) tend to have fewer intense storms (2). I'm not seeing anything to suggest an above-normal season.


So I are you calling for an average or below average season?
0 likes   

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 613
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#90 Postby MetroMike » Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:33 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.


Depends on what you define as "average". The average over the past 30 seasons is 14/7/3. Cool AMO cycles (like this year) tend to have fewer intense storms (2). I'm not seeing anything to suggest an above-normal season.

We have a warmer MDR when compared to last year at this time, and a dwindling El Niño. Why the low expectations?

Joe Bastardi Is stuck on an idea of an El Nino having an actual influence on this seasons hurricane activity.
Also noticed he will not waver from using a map that shows the Atlantic as being cool this year.
Not sure if he will see what most experts are observing and cave into it.
5 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19803
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#91 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:50 pm

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:JB is about the only one left out there calling for below average season.


Depends on what you define as "average". The average over the past 30 seasons is 14/7/3. Cool AMO cycles (like this year) tend to have fewer intense storms (2). I'm not seeing anything to suggest an above-normal season.


So I are you calling for an average or below average season?


I went 11/5/2 in our office pool, which is the lowest of any prediction in our office. Almost everyone else went 13-16 named storms, which makes it very hard to win these contests if you pick the same numbers. You have to be on the extreme end (higher or lower) to win most of the time. Most of the analog yeas had fewer than 10 named storms. Realistically, counting Andrea, I'm expecting around 14/6/2 - just a tad below normal. I'm not seeing anything to support an above-normal season. Last year would have been a lot quieter, though, had it not been for a few week period in September when the far eastern MDR suddenly became a favorable environment.
5 likes   

User avatar
HurricaneEnzo
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 460
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:18 pm
Location: Atlantic, NC (Hurricane Alley)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#92 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:57 am

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Depends on what you define as "average". The average over the past 30 seasons is 14/7/3. Cool AMO cycles (like this year) tend to have fewer intense storms (2). I'm not seeing anything to suggest an above-normal season.


So I are you calling for an average or below average season?


I went 11/5/2 in our office pool, which is the lowest of any prediction in our office. Almost everyone else went 13-16 named storms, which makes it very hard to win these contests if you pick the same numbers. You have to be on the extreme end (higher or lower) to win most of the time. Most of the analog yeas had fewer than 10 named storms. Realistically, counting Andrea, I'm expecting around 14/6/2 - just a tad below normal. I'm not seeing anything to support an above-normal season. Last year would have been a lot quieter, though, had it not been for a few week period in September when the far eastern MDR suddenly became a favorable environment.


And unfortunately that week was all it took to produce Florence which ravaged my area of NC. The town I live in saw flooding that has never been seen by anyone currently living. I haven't looked at records but probably nobody in the last 500 years. Just shows why predicting the number of storms we will have is so hard. We aren't really at a point where we can account for that week or 2 of favorable conditions very far in the future. I never count a season out til it's over and done with.
6 likes   
96'-Bertha 96'-Fran 98'-Bonnie 99'-Dennis 99'-Floyd 03'-Isabel 04'-Alex 05'-Ophelia 11'-Irene 14'-Arthur 16'-Matthew 18'-Florence 19'-Dorian 20'-Isaias (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

I am not a Professional Met just an enthusiast. Get your weather forecasts from the Pros!

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2601
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#93 Postby toad strangler » Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:00 am

Not to beat a dead horse but to quote my friend Andrew born in SLOW year in 1992 ..... "IT ONLY TAKES ONE"
2 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3718
Age: 59
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#94 Postby chaser1 » Wed Jun 19, 2019 4:32 pm

crownweather wrote:I have always loved studying the weather. I was watching thunderstorms with fascination at the age of 4.........
My professional weather forecasting career began In the Winter of 1994, I formed Crown Weather Services. I have worked to build this business ever since. I have been forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes for over 25 years....
Crown Weather has always been and always will be a very small, "Mom and Pop" type weather company.....
I'm not a hobbyist, an amateur or a fly by night organization.


I understand and agree that proper nomenclature should apply to the use of professional titles such as "Meteorologist". Having said that, a "Professional Business" would be simply defined as any "for profit" entity that sells some product, service, or commodity. Ultimately the perceived value of any such business or entity can probably be best measured by the longevity of it's own users or customers.

I don't recall if I've ever met Rob however I can directly relate to his years of passion and self taught knowledge on the subject of Meteorology. In the end, our body of knowledge is a measure by those who perceive it as such.

From the "side-line" and having read my share of forum posts, I have a fairly keen sense of those who seem to have a decent grasp of the subject matter at hand.

I for one have absolutely no problem with Crown Weather appearing in the "Expert Forecast Section". For what it's worth, I can think of one or two other organizations on that list that have mightily whiffed on a couple occassions over the years. I personally still think this year will end up 11/5/2 but hey.... what do I know? I'm no expert :wink:
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120771
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season= TSR July 4 forecast stays at 12/6/2

#95 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 04, 2019 12:44 pm

TSR July 4 forecast is up on the first post of thread. Next will be CSU on July 9.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 20
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#96 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:10 am

0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19803
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#97 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:57 am

[quote="StruThiO"]I don't buy it

I'm thinking a bit less than 14/6/2, myself.
3 likes   

JPmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1042
Joined: Thu Jun 03, 2004 11:01 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#98 Postby JPmia » Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:59 am

wxman57 wrote:
StruThiO wrote:I don't buy it

I'm thinking a bit less than 14/6/2, myself.


Yeah, but that is your office pool bet!?
0 likes   

User avatar
AtlanticWind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1306
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#99 Postby AtlanticWind » Tue Jul 09, 2019 12:44 pm

I don't really put much stock in early season predictions , The predictions in August may have
some validity but they are even often wrong.

The height of hurricane season Is only about 10 to 12 weeks long
and I think it's difficult to know how exactly how conditions will evolve.

I think NOAA's method of giving a range and percentage of likely activity makes the most sense.
0 likes   

User avatar
MetroMike
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 613
Joined: Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 pm
Location: Tampa Bay
Contact:

Re: Expert Forecasts for 2019 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

#100 Postby MetroMike » Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:06 pm

He stated that Caribbean shear is strong? It usually is this time of year.
He has known to be anti development in the past this time of year.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: caneman, CourierPR, Emmett_Brown, Hurricaneman, La Breeze, lilbump3000, Monsoonjr99, NotoSans, Orlando_wx and 41 guests