Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

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Hurricaneman
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Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:08 pm

December 24 2018

Right now we’ll take a look at the things that may happen based on what I’m seeing in the long term models and make a determination on how the season could play out

AMO: the long term models are indicating a positive to possibly strongly positive which could make things quite active and this is a positive

SOI: this may be in a continued positive area after a dip by the new year which could lead to increased trade winds in the ENSO which could be a positive

ENSO: this is another big unknown as the long range models seem to be between a positive neutral to a weak El Niño which depending on El Niño could be a positive if the El Niño dies or negative or even really negative depending on ENSO

Shear: seems as though the long range models are indicating maybe something in the Bahamas in June but is no guarantee and a dead July but an extremely active August and September with possibly something in October so based on the long range models this seems to be a positive

Steering: the long range models seem to be showing it may be a western Atlantic year with many landfalls

So based on long range modeling here are my numbers and if an El Niño continues or not

12 to 25 named storms
4 to 14 hurricanes
2 to 7 major hurricanes

Ace: 70 to 250

I will narrow this down in my April 15 update and add in strike probabilities at that time

As always look to official sources like the NHC or NWS for official information
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#2 Postby chaser1 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:45 pm

You do realize that baring an Asteroid Strike, Cataclysmic Volcano eruptions, the Apocalypse, both polar caps melting, a solar flare targeted directly at Earth, OR the mother of all El Nino's..... your forecast numbers for 2019 probably have a 95% of verifying. Personally, i'd change the total number of potential hurricanes from your range of 4-14 to 2-18.
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:40 pm

What long-range models are you looking at?

And yes I do agree that 2019 could very well be YET another high impact season. It seems that the overall steering pattern unfortunately has changed and favored U.S. impacts since about 2015. Fortunately 2015 was a strong El Niño season so the only real threats was Joaquin and Emily (prior to dissipation), neither of which significantly affected the U.S. Then there was Matthew in October 2016 which made an extremely close call to Florida as a major hurricane so it's been building up.
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#4 Postby NotSparta » Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:09 am

TheStormExpert wrote:What long-range models are you looking at?

And yes I do agree that 2019 could very well be YET another high impact season. It seems that the overall steering pattern unfortunately has changed and favored U.S. impacts since about 2015. Fortunately 2015 was a strong El Niño season so the only real threats was Joaquin and Emily (prior to dissipation), neither of which significantly affected the U.S. Then there was Matthew in October 2016 which made an extremely close call to Florida as a major hurricane so it's been building up.


You don't even need much activity, just bad luck. If the ridging persists, even a very inactive season can be impactful
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#5 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Dec 30, 2018 1:43 pm

NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:What long-range models are you looking at?

And yes I do agree that 2019 could very well be YET another high impact season. It seems that the overall steering pattern unfortunately has changed and favored U.S. impacts since about 2015. Fortunately 2015 was a strong El Niño season so the only real threats was Joaquin and Emily (prior to dissipation), neither of which significantly affected the U.S. Then there was Matthew in October 2016 which made an extremely close call to Florida as a major hurricane so it's been building up.

You don't even need much activity, just bad luck. If the ridging persists, even a very inactive season can be impactful

Exhibit A: 2018. Most of the storms were weak and short-lived. Yet the two exceptions, Florence and Michael, were notorious landfalls.

Given the possibility of a strong El Niño later in 2019, however, my preliminary numbers would be close to my (failed) 2018 forecast.

Very early guess for 2019: 9 NS / 3 H / 1 MH (ACE: ~90).
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#6 Postby NotSparta » Mon Dec 31, 2018 3:56 am

Shell Mound wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:What long-range models are you looking at?

And yes I do agree that 2019 could very well be YET another high impact season. It seems that the overall steering pattern unfortunately has changed and favored U.S. impacts since about 2015. Fortunately 2015 was a strong El Niño season so the only real threats was Joaquin and Emily (prior to dissipation), neither of which significantly affected the U.S. Then there was Matthew in October 2016 which made an extremely close call to Florida as a major hurricane so it's been building up.

You don't even need much activity, just bad luck. If the ridging persists, even a very inactive season can be impactful

Exhibit A: 2018. Most of the storms were weak and short-lived. Yet the two exceptions, Florence and Michael, were notorious landfalls.

Given the possibility of a strong El Niño later in 2019, however, my preliminary numbers would be close to my (failed) 2018 forecast.

Very early guess for 2019: 9 NS / 3 H / 1 MH (ACE: ~90).

The AMO looks warmer than 2018's, but El Niño is muddying the waters. I'm not going to do a deep analysis this early, but your numbers don't look bad at this point
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:34 pm

April 15th I’ll give a better forecast as all the stuff comes together for the hurricane season and a final forecast on June 1st
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Mar 31, 2019 10:24 am

I’m going to give an update for the hurricane season tomorrow and may 15th so stay tuned
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:57 pm

April 1 2019

This is my forecast for the 2019 hurricane season.

These factors are going to tell us whether we have an active or inactive season

AMO: seems as though models are showing a positive here but seems to be neutral to slightly negative at the moment but if it goes back positive it would be a positive for the hurricane season

ENSO: looks as though the ENSO is going to be in the positive numbers but also looking at things it may be a madoki which would be less negative than a traditional El Niño but later in the hurricane season is where things look interesting which leads us to

ENSO subsurface: what we have surfacing now has some +5 anomalies just below the surface which should be in effect the next few months but an interesting area of -anomalies near or just west of the dateline that could be important as we come up to the peak of the hurricane season so stay tuned

Equatorial winds: up to the dateline seems to be in a trade wind pattern while anything west of the dateline seems to have westerlies which is causing downwelling kelvin waves but the trades east of the dateline are causing a more madoki El Niño look and with cooler anomalies west of the dateline around 150m deep may surface in time for peak season

SOI: looks like it’s negative and that’s good if you are looking for El Niño to continue and is a negative for the hurricane season

Shear: could be quite strong in the Caribbean and MDR but the tropics north of 20n may not have that much shear so basically the east coast, GOM and subtropics are at higher risk but some El Niño’s can shut down the GOM so stay tuned

So based on these factors may numbers are

13/5/2

Areas at extreme risk 50% or above

Nassau, Bahamas
Freeport, Bahamas
Melbourne Fl
Daytona,Fl
Miami, Fl
Naples, Fl
Pensacola, Fl
Cape Hatteras, Nc
Myrtle Beach, Sc

High risk 40 to 50%

Charleston, Sc
Norfolk, Va
Hyannis, Ma
Nantucket Ma
Suffolk, Ny
Montauk,Ny
Chatham, Ma
Providence, Ri

Moderate risk 30 to 40%

Houston, Tx
Galveston, Tx
Beaumont Tx
New Orleans La
Mobile, Al
New Brunswick Ns
Biloxi Ms
Hamilton, Bermuda
New York, New York

Enhanced risk 20 to 30%

Havana, Cuba
Port Au Prince, Haiti
Santo Domingo, Dr
Cancun, Mx
Savannah, Ga

Slight Risk 10 to 20%
Belize city, Belize
Honduras
San Juan, Pr
St Kitts
St Croix
Guadeloupe
Antigua
St Martin
Dominica

Low risk less than 10%

Barbados
Martinique
Grenada
Trinidad
Tobago
Aruba
Cape Race Nf

So in conclusion things are coming together for a quieter season than we’ve seen lately but as we all know all it takes is one
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Re: Hurricaneman’s 2019 hurricane season forecast

#10 Postby NotSparta » Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:40 am

Hurricaneman wrote:April 1 2019

So in conclusion things are coming together for a quieter season than we’ve seen lately but as we all know all it takes is one


lol, of course you put me in extreme risk
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

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