2019 WPAC Season

[somethingfunny]

Not WPac related, but I just realized that James Reynolds will be intercepting the NAtl's Dorian.

It's not very common to have the only game on the planet on August 31 be in the Atlantic

[euro6208]

Behind the long tracker, GFS has more activity.

[1900hurricane]

I wonder if an agency has ever classified three storms at once. 90W, 91W, and 92W all look ready now.

[mrbagyo]

Not WPac related, but I just realized that James Reynolds will be intercepting the NAtl's Dorian.

It's not very common to have the only game on the planet on August 31 be in the Atlantic

He should have been in the Bahamas together with Jim Edds, unfortunately American Airline did him some nasty.

If Dorian really recurves - it would be the second epic miss for Mr. TyphoonFury this season (the first one being the epic wobbliness of Typhoon Lekima)

[euro6208]

WPAC looks very active today.

[euro6208]

Latest run of EURO is even more active than the past couple of runs.

[euro6208]

GFS very active.

[Hayabusa]

Yeah, really active according to GFS, sniffing something out after 72 hours+

[1900hurricane]

Really strong monsoon trough signal across pretty much all of guidance going into the medium range. Lots of low latitude westerlies stretching across the Philippine Sea and beyond. Even the ECMWF has it. Although it doesn't currently have the activity other guidance has, I imagine that'll begin to change. I'd say chances are very good for a few systems, with at least one strong centerpiece typhoon.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/iG42v8F
EC thinks a large monsoon gyre.

[euro6208]

Landfall galore.

[euro6208]

NWS notices the system on the 10th that the GFS and EURO is so adamant about.

Discussion...Forecast remains the same with the previous over
night forecast package with the exception of continuing the
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from this afternoon
until tomorrow afternoon`s startup again. Mostly because the
models...ECMWF and GFS were not in agreement of when to predict an
obvious break. In addition, the scattered showers forecast
through Saturday is not a high confidence forecast as there are
periods that are likely to change for a short time to isolated.
The models do agree to a temporary reprieve on portions of Saturday
and Sunday. Then, another interesting development occurs with the
development of a new circulation northeast of Chuuk from the
extension of a trough left over from TS/TD 14W. The GFS is a bit
stronger but both ECMWF and GFS have this new system crossing over
Marianas in the late Monday through Wednesday time period. This
will be an interesting development to be watched
closely...primarily for the potential of more heavy rain.

The main player for next week, however, is a
weak circulation the models predict will develop northeast of
Chuuk. If this scenario occurs, an overall wet pattern will be in
place from Chuuk westward to Palau. The GFS is much more
aggressive with this circulation than the ECMWF, though the ECMWF
could be a little too weak with the system. Maintained current
forecast for now, though a wetter pattern does look likely by the
end of the weekend. If this scenario plays out as the models
predict, shower coverage may need to be increased for Yap and
Koror through the weekend into next week and brought in a little
earlier for Chuuk.

[euro6208]

There are a few additional systems of interest forecast in the western Pacific, but confidence in these forecasts is low at this time, so they have not been included on this map.

[1900hurricane]

I'm surprised. Seems like a strong monsoon trough signal to me.

[euro6208]

GFS continues to show a massive outbreak.

[euro6208]

Also has the first Marianas system stronger on CPA.

[euro6208]

NWS on the possible monsoon trough.

A few tweaks made to the forecast. Scatterometer data showed light
winds over the Marianas with southerly winds over Guam and Rota and
east to southeast over Tinian and Saipan. VAD wind profile also
indicated southerly winds over Guam. This wind difference reflects a
monsoon trough stretching across the area. Decided not to split the
zones based on the different wind directions as models do show the
light winds gradually becoming south to southwest over all the local
islands as the trough moves north. Earlier forecast had scattered
showers beginning by this afternoon. Satellite imagery trends this
morning tend to favor isolated showers and the latest models points
in that direction. The proximity of the trough to the local area will
generate isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Light
winds and daytime heating will also add to the chance of afternoon
thunderstorms the next few days. Circulations moving along the
trough will cause changes in wind directions through Monday, and
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday through
Saturday. Other models are indicating circulations developing on
the monsoon trough next week. Models have differing opinions on
how many circulations and placement of any that do form. They also
hint that these circulations may increase the winds along the
trough and over the Marianas. At present time only isolated
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for next week. If
the trough does indeed become more active than scattered showers
are possible for a few days in the coming week. Because confidence
in predicting where and when this may happen is low and will wait
until the models reach better agreement before changing the
forecast.

[euro6208]

No wonder why we are seeing such activity. KW and MJO moving through.

[euro6208]

95W THREAD

Up for system near Guam.

[euro6208]

Looks like 95W will be part of a huge monsoon gyre says EURO.