2019 WPAC Season

[doomhaMwx]

NOAA has an unnumbered invest over the Philippine Sea.

https://i.imgur.com/CCZsWoi.gif
https://i.imgur.com/nsvFF53.gif

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20191021 0230 18.0 -135.2 Too Weak IN1 INVEST
20191020 2030 17.4 -134.9 T1.0/1.0 IN1 INVEST

TXPQ22 KNES 210358
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 21/0230Z

C. 18.0N

D. 135.2E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. SYSTEM
IS DEVOID OF ACTIVE CONVECTION, AND THEREFORE THE DT IS 0. MET AND
PT AGREE. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

Earlier...

[aspen]

The latest GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, and ICON runs all forecast the potential for a depression to form at a low latitude east of the Philippines by Saturday or Sunday, possibly as early as Friday. Since it has the longest range, the GFS calls for this to intensify into a strong typhoon over the few days before a Philippines landfall, which is possible but still far from a certainty at this point. It could end up recurving out to sea like Neoguri or Bualoi. If it does form, the next available name is Matmo.

[euro6208]

The parade of storms continue.

[euro6208]

When they come, they come in batches.

[Tailspin]

Yeah that low rider GFS PI system looks interesting atm.


https://imgur.com/5hTJpX6

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/tbu ... 2019102118

[Hayabusa]

GFS continues with the fantasy west tracker while Euro the same but weak, and even in the fantasy long range GFS has another one

If that GFS fantasy ever happens then 98W would be Matmo and 99W would be Halong.

99W and an H storm name, what a perfect combination, but that's if it lives up to its combination.

Even the date forecast of those fantasy model storms are so similar

[Tailspin]

Early too call, prefer too wait and see more runs before calling the GFS out on a phantom model storm.

[ManilaTC]

Early too call, prefer too wait and see more runs before calling the GFS out on a phantom model storm.

Actually GFS has been consistent with this since the last 4-5 runs...

[dexterlabio]

We are talking about model storms 7-14 days out, and while nothing is set in stone regarding the intensity or track, the recent model runs seem to tell that we have finally reached the "game time" in WPAC, something that I almost thought would never happen this year. Let's see if the MJO emerges strong in this part of the world, and how much the basin can take advantage of it.

[Hayabusa]

Hmmm

[doomhaMwx]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... /ghazards/

[Hayabusa]

It continues...

[mrbagyo]

The next invest could stem from the cloud cluster south of Guam

[dexterlabio]

https://s3.gifyu.com/images/20191024_134511.gif

The next invest could stem from the cloud cluster south of Guam

Could be declared an invest tomorrow at this rate

[aspen]

There are two potential systems that could form within the next week, hereafter referred to as S1 and S2 since they’re not designated invests yet. S1 is the disturbance east of the southern Philippines, and the GFS forecasts it developing into a depression by Sunday before making landfall and passing into the South China Sea by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, where it could strengthen and/or meander. S2 may come from a disturbance just east of 180 W, and could become a depression by late Tuesday at the earliest. The latest runs show a Bualoi-like track and recurvature, but at this point, the only thing I can say with any degree of confidence is that there’s a chance of it forming.

[Hayabusa]

We'll see if the WPAC can produce a significant system this coming early November.

[mrbagyo]

06z GFS has a TC forming in 120hr, maybe this is the incipient system.

[Hayabusa]

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/88vkyKQ
00z GFS Guam and PI getting a piece of the action.


https://imgur.com/fWKfEER
VT Gift

[aspen]

Invest 99W is getting better organized this morning and, if the current organizational pattern continues, might become a depression as early as tonight.

Invest 90W will probably develop into another weak system in the SCS, but by mid or late next week, a new system could form further out in the open WPac and have the chance to become another strong storm.