2019 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

After Matmo, I'm quite convinced that GFS is cranking up storms way too much, and it is even showing development of a major hurricane in tropical Atlantic in November, which may not have bearing on things happening in WPAC but still an indication that something is up with this model at the moment.

While GFS might be hinting onto some tropical cyclone genesis in the coming days, I would put Euro and UKMET solutions in the blend to come up with a more reliable track and intensity outlook. Relying on GFS midrange forecast alone may not be a good idea.

[aspen]

Thanks to the MJO passing over the Bay of Bengal and much of the WPac basin, there will be a significant burst of activity within the next week, with the potential for four strong systems:

Matmo — its remnants are likely to re-develop in the Bay of Bengal around mid-week, or perhaps a little earlier, where it could reach hurricane intensity.

Halong — there’s a good chance for it to rapidly or even explosively intensify later today or tomorrow, thanks to an overall very favorable environment with improving outflow channels. However, by Wednesday, it should start to quickly weaken and undergo extratropical transition.

Invest 90W — this looks to become a meandering system in the South China Sea, and more models, like the GFS and NAVGEM, are calling for a stronger storm around hurricane intensity before it eventually moves into Vietnam. The UKMET is an outlier, with a predicted max intensity of Cat 3-4 status, which seems unlikely because of the threat of upwelling thanks to the system’s slow movement.

Future disturbance — more of the global runs are hinting towards a depression forming well east of the Philippines, moving it through an area conductive for significant intensification. The GFS has it develop by Tuesday and is, unexpectedly, the most aggressive model with it. The Euro takes a full week to develop it, while the NAVGEM and ICON are in between. It seems like one of the problems the latter two models have is that they call for an enormous and broad precursor disturbance; the GFS had that issue last night, but it is no longer present in the 12z run.

[dexterlabio]

One major challenge that the future storms will have to deal with is the surge of the dry and cold air from North Asia, which is expected to strengthen in the coming days.

[mrbagyo]

One major challenge that the future storms will have to deal with is the surge of the dry and cold air from North Asia, which is expected to strengthen in the coming days.

They need to stay away from them to prosper - in other words - The low latitude riders

[dexterlabio]

Those that will attempt to stay away from the continental dry air to the north can tap on the active MJO signal to avoid decapitation. I believe the MJO is well within the WPAC region already. Just look at the satellite view of the entire basin. I've never seen WPAC this "convectively active" this year. What's more impressive is the amount of cloud clusters lingering in the open Pacific, including the low latitudes, that stretches all the way from the Indian Ocean.

No doubt there is a last attempt of the WPAC this year to put on a show.

[Hayabusa]

Well models have backed off or became inconsistent of this potential storm after Halong and Nakri, probably because they underestimated Halong like they underestimated Neoguri and Bualoi, but we'll see, it has to be a really low latitude to not get captured by that trough to tap the potential.

Next name is Fengshen.

Fengshen huh, sometimes I wonder why Fengshen, which caused a very high death toll count, wasn't retired during the 2008 season. What was the Typhoon Committee thinking?

What would Fengshen be this time if it ever forms? The name Fengshen already sounds ominous, even more ominous when you know its meaning that is Wind God/God of Wind.

[1900hurricane]

Crossed off 200 units of ACE and still going strong at the moment.

[1900hurricane]

So Hagibis or Halong? In terms of maximum intensity, who you got???

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1191945507888914437




I gotta go Hagibis personally, although both systems are pretty incredible.

[doomhaMwx]

A chain of tropical systems from the Arabian Sea eastwards to the Northwest Pacific basin. Suomi NPP satellite image composite from yesterday, November 05.
System classifications are based from yesterday as well (some of these systems may be stronger/weaker now).


Suompi NPP / VIIRS
11-05-2019
Satellite image from NOAA / NASA

[aspen]

So Hagibis or Halong? In terms of maximum intensity, who you got???

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1191945507888914437

I gotta go Hagibis personally, although both systems are pretty incredible.

I’m also going with Hagibis because of its rare combination of a pinhole eye and CDG, but Halong is not far behind. I’d put Hagibis at 170 kt, maybe 175-180 kt, and Halong at 165 kt (which is was ADT estimates supported for up to seven hours).

[Hayabusa]

In terms of appearance I like Hagibis, to me its IR imagery peak looks like the peak of Typhoon Gay, where Gay reached a peak objective DT of 8.7, that was over 2 decades ago so probably that peak DT was overestimated.

But I like Halong more in terms of how ADT managed to bulls-eye it.

I also like sleeper TCs like Halong, sleepers when models just show this would just become a weak or average TC only then to prove them epically wrong by bombing out to one of the strongest TC ever recorded, that is the kind of a sleeper I really like.

GFS continues with the fantasy west tracker while Euro the same but weak, and even in the fantasy long range GFS has another one

If that GFS fantasy ever happens then 98W would be Matmo and 99W would be Halong.

99W and an H storm name, what a perfect combination, but that's if it lives up to its combination.

Even the date forecast of those fantasy model storms are so similar

This combination did kind of live up, but it fell short of breaking the T8.0 barrier on the current ADT

[aspen]

In terms of appearance I like Hagibis, to me its IR imagery peak looks like the peak of Typhoon Gay, where Gay reached a peak objective DT of 8.7, that was over 2 decades ago so probably that peak DT was overestimated.

But I like Halong more in terms of how ADT managed to bulls-eye it.

I also like sleeper TCs like Halong, sleepers when models just show this would just become a weak or average TC only then to prove them epically wrong by bombing out to one of the strongest TC ever recorded, that is the kind of a sleeper I really like.

GFS continues with the fantasy west tracker while Euro the same but weak, and even in the fantasy long range GFS has another one

If that GFS fantasy ever happens then 98W would be Matmo and 99W would be Halong.

99W and an H storm name, what a perfect combination, but that's if it lives up to its combination.

Even the date forecast of those fantasy model storms are so similar

This combination did kind of live up, but it fell short of breaking the T8.0 barrier on the current ADT

It was nice to finally have a surprise ultra intense storm that the ADT was able to do well with, and that also posed no threat to land. I had a feeling Halong would end up as something special based on how deep its convection was when it first formed, but I didn’t expect a 165 kt super typhoon bombing out like that and maintaining such an incredible satellite presentation for so long.

[Highteeld]

So Hagibis or Halong? In terms of maximum intensity, who you got???

https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1191945507888914437

I gotta go Hagibis personally, although both systems are pretty incredible.

Hagibis ~ 170 knots. Personally, I think there were some incredibly warm eye temperatures going on in that storm that Himawari Satellite just could not resolve (not unlike Patricia's situation with GOES, actually).
Halong ~ 165 knots. I liked what I saw from ADT with this storm, and agree with it for the most part.

[Highteeld]

GFS, ECM, and the EPS ensemble have been quasi-consistent in showing a late season low-rider typhoon after hour 200. Waters are anomalously warm down there right now at around 10* latitude.

[aspen]

GFS, ECM, and the EPS ensemble have been quasi-consistent in showing a late season low-rider typhoon after hour 200. Waters are anomalously warm down there right now at around 10* latitude.

The Euro has been showing that low-rider as well. Still, it’s about a week out, so there’s a good chance the models give up on it.

[aspen]

Both the Euro and GFS agree on the low-rider developing as early as 120 hr out, but the former is more aggressive with Invests 91W and 92W, while the GFS keeps them as weak TDs or TSs.

[aspen]

There is now a three model consensus on the low-rider developing or starting to develop by 120 hr. The NAVGEM has it developing slightly quicker than the GFS and Euro, and takes it along a similar path between the more northern GFS and the further south Euro. It is also the most aggressive global model for Invest 91W and has it become a Cat 1/2 typhoon between 120-180 hr while meandering near Luzon. The GFS has also become more aggressive with Invest 92W in its latest run and finally shows something more than a weak TS.

[aspen]

The low-rider may develop into a depression as early as midday Thursday. Meanwhile, each new run of the GFS is more aggressive with Invest 92W, and given that it will be moving through a region of 29-30 C SSTs and lower shear over the next 4-6 days, there’s a decent change it could become the WPac’s next big system.

[aspen]

GFS is still very consistent with the potential future low-rider and has it become a TD between Thursday and Friday.

[mrbagyo]

GFS is still very consistent with the potential future low-rider and has it become a TD between Thursday and Friday.

Others have backed off on the development.

Anyway, this is the only area low enough to be that low rider - could this be the one.