2019 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1161620557810606082

[euro6208]

Favorable conditions should return later this month.

[euro6208]

97W THREAD

P.I sea system.

[euro6208]

Last 2 GFS runs sensing some marked decrease in activity after showing multiple systems.

latest EURO same with GFS on the slowdown.

[euro6208]

In the western Pacific, both GEFS and ECMWF still maintain a broad area of low pressure in the Philippine Sea during the end of Week-1 and into Week-2, but it is more likely the formation of a tropical low would now occur after the beginning of Week-2 in the region.

[doomhaMwx]

We have 97W and 98W at the moment. Also keep an eye on possible formation of a low pressure area near the Ryukyu islands, though anything that does form will most probably head northward with little to no development.

[Hayabusa]

GFS went crazy in the long range of the 06Z run

[euro6208]

GFS went crazy in the long range of the 06Z run

Indeed.

[euro6208]

EPS with favorable conditions returning in the last week of August to early September.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

For a few days now, GFS has been very active in developing not one but maybe two TC's.

12Z

[euro6208]

18Z

[euro6208]

EURO latching onto something.

[euro6208]

Well well...GFS after so many days of depicting twins has backed off from any development after EURO hops on board. Ai...

[DioBrando]

Looks like a hostile September/October is on its way.

[dexterlabio]

https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/RtRqv4vDPhD1HT58_dsP72Yec41fwValrphrhUdV3rw/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/ECYivnUXUAAUAEU.jpg%3Alarge?width=469&height=375

Looks like a hostile September/October is on its way.

There are lots of super long range forecasts coming out and I just don't know which to believe lol. And to forecast that WPAC will shut down in October is pretty bold. Even the lame years like 1998, 2010 and 2011 managed to spawn super typhoons in the last quarter.



Although personally, I'm inclined to think that 2019 will be one of those lackluster years of the WPAC. Yes, there was this burst of activity with Francisco, Lekima and Krosa earlier this month, but to me that was still quite underwhelming. If there will be no follow-up typhoons in the next two weeks then I will be convinced that this year is a below-average one just like 2010, 2011, and 2017.

[1900hurricane]

After 97W maybe does a thing, it doesn't look like there is much to keep an eye on in the shorter term. Further out 9-10 days from now, European and Canadian guidance brings a stronger burst of low level monsoon westerlies across the Philippines and into the Philippine Sea. I might watch for development there beginning around then. The GFS/GEFS on the other hand, does not extend the monsoon low level jet and keeps it retracted not even to the South China Sea. The operational GFS also is developing a fairly strong typhoon from a hardly-discernible disturbance during the same time period. Color me skeptical.

[euro6208]

GFS sides with EURO on a weak TC just east of Luzon.

[euro6208]

I'm looking forward to the next 10 names.

Five of them reached category 5 status. Can you guess them?

Bailu
Podul
Lingling
Kajiki
Faxai
Peipah
Tapah
Mitag
Hagibis
Neoguri

[euro6208]

Week 2 sees the potential.