2019 WPAC Season

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the 00Z GFS is having a fun time trying to figure out what it wants to do with the monsoon trough in the South China Sea.

[euro6208]

GFS and ECMWF are sniffing another one behind 99W. Looks like it has the potential to be much stronger than 99W and Bailu. Could hit Luzon as well about a week from now.

Once again the models disappoints. EURO and GFS barely develops this if at all...weak...

[euro6208]

Predictably perhaps, but it's the eastern basin thing that has me interested in that UKMET output. Looks like it can be traced back to an ITCZ disturbance well SW of Hawaii at about 170ºW now. GFS and CMC operational runs both at least somewhat maintain the disturbance after crossing the IDL. ECMWF not so much. We'll see if some equatorial westerlies can develop and pick the disturbance up somewhat.

GFS caving in to EURO...

[euro6208]

A complicating factor is the likelihood of multiple westward moving TCs across the West Pacific and South China Sea through early September.

The West Pacific is forecast to be the most active with one to two additional TCs forming either east of the Philippines or across the South China during the next two weeks. The moderate confidence for TC development extends northeast across the West Pacific during Week-2 since the GFS ensemble members favor formation of a higher latitude storm.

[Hayabusa]

JMA weather maps has a TD near the dateline in their 24-48 hr forecast. Could this possibly a long tracker?
But the current setup is such that this seems unlikely to be a long west tracker and this system is already in a high enough latitude and model support is fuzzy, remember 90C?

Is that why GFS has backed off and currently don't know what to do on the possible Philippine Sea - SCS system?
Oh wait the models have been overall terrible this year

[climateconcernnew]

While the ATL is very busy and interesting. Here we are now in WestPac waiting for something. LMAO

[climateconcernnew]

GFS is hinting a possible system on the east of Palau and will likely traverse Philippine sea.

[climateconcernnew]

GFS and ECMWF are sniffing another one behind 99W. Looks like it has the potential to be much stronger than 99W and Bailu. Could hit Luzon as well about a week from now.

Once again the models disappoints. EURO and GFS barely develops this if at all...weak...

LOL they just teased us all.

[euro6208]

While the ATL is very busy and interesting. Here we are now in WestPac waiting for something. LMAO

I don't get it. WPAC is year round and is always interesting and busy. There are far more storms equally and stronger than Dorian.

It's only 2 storms...

I guess all the U.S mainstream media hyping is getting to alot of people.

[euro6208]

Interesting...

EURO now has the dateline system but weak.

It still has the Philippine Sea/SCS system and crashes it into China.

A 3rd?

[euro6208]

GFS same as EURO.

[euro6208]

90W THREAD

Dateline system.

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z CMC has a lot of low latitude westerlies. It also has a lot of tropical cyclones.

[Kingarabian]

The 12Z CMC has a lot of low latitude westerlies. It also has a lot of tropical cyclones.

Ah the CMC is alive after all.

[euro6208]

91W THREAD

Up for SCS system.

[euro6208]

92W THREAD

P.I sea system up.

[euro6208]

Next long tracker of the season?

Another landfall for Japan?

[1900hurricane]

Not WPac related, but I just realized that James Reynolds will be intercepting the NAtl's Dorian.

[Hayabusa]

By this time last year models were already showing in the long range that was eventually the precursor to Mangkhut.

[1900hurricane]

It's going to be sad if this thread turns into a recounting of what happened last year. Maybe one of the current invests will give us something more to talk about.