2019 WPAC Season

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euro6208
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#261 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 01, 2019 6:49 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#262 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:06 am

TUTT rampage.

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#263 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jul 02, 2019 6:55 am

Even no significant TC on the latest EURO and GFS runs...
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#264 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:12 pm

Because booooring.

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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#265 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:19 pm

This is the time of year where if it remains quiet, I start to think more seriously about a below average season.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#266 Postby Tailspin » Wed Jul 03, 2019 7:28 pm

Could have one of those seasons that are very active in the latter part.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#267 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Jul 03, 2019 10:24 pm

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#268 Postby Tailspin » Wed Jul 03, 2019 11:15 pm



image dont display, on the board. But it does on the direct link.
https://cdn1.imggmi.com/uploads/2019/7/ ... 3-full.png

For me any way.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#269 Postby al78 » Thu Jul 04, 2019 2:27 am

1900hurricane wrote:This is the time of year where if it remains quiet, I start to think more seriously about a below average season.


All those six seasons which Phil Klotzbach mentions had below-average activity.

There was one recent year where little happened in the NW Pacific until September, then the basin just exploded, possibly due to a strong active phase of the MJO, and it ended up either near or above average overall. There is a remote possibility something similar could happen this year (it's not over until it's over), but there is a correlation between pre-August (or even pre-July) activity and annual activity, so if little happens this month, I'd put my money on a quiet season.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#270 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:13 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#271 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 04, 2019 6:52 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#272 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 04, 2019 7:20 am

The difference is startling.

2018

Image

2019

Image

Highest energy in any TC basin. Will the atmosphere respond?
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#273 Postby JoshwaDone » Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:14 am

Tropical Storm Risk's July Forecast Update is out.

looks like this season's gonna be below-average but there might be surprises especially in the "ber" months

Link: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ly2019.pdf
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#274 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:42 am

JoshwaDone wrote:Tropical Storm Risk's July Forecast Update is out.

looks like this season's gonna be below-average but there might be surprises especially in the "ber" months

Link: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/T ... ly2019.pdf


From the May forecast of 354, now forecasting an Ace of 260. Really brutal out there.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#275 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:43 am

Some tropical mischiefs from EURO and GFS long range.
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#276 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 06, 2019 7:44 am

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#277 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 06, 2019 8:27 pm

Elevated typhoon frequency northern Philippines

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1147508246539841538


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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#278 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:07 am

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 176E WEST SLOWLY.

Could be a long tracker or fizzles out?
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically

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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#279 Postby JoshwaDone » Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:36 am

Hayabusa wrote:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 176E WEST SLOWLY.

Could be a long tracker or fizzles out?


it'll fizzle out
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Re: 2019 WPAC Season

#280 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:04 am

Just let the 1week model runs be the guide...the basin filled with so much subsidence. This year has the shade of 2017, I can feel it now...

I also think that Wutip is actually the Hurricane Celia '10 of WPAC...an early Cat5 not as indicator of hyperactivity later in the season, but the best that the season will ever have.
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