2019 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

EURO sticking to it's guns. Has the dateline system even stronger.

[euro6208]

GFS says i'll be there along with a few others...

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1160240968639139840

[euro6208]

Looks like some of the models especially GFS and NAVGEM have begun hinting at another monsoon pattern trying to develop. Interesting to see if the oher models follows suit.

[euro6208]

EPS has favorable Velocity Potential around the time of the dateline system. It also has almost the entire month of September prime for TC activity.

[Highteeld]

EURO sticking to it's guns. Has the dateline system even stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/sg9rsTA.png

Down to 938.9 mb on weathermodels.com

[Highteeld]

It's actually quite strong on the Canadian too; about 966 mb at the end of the model run.

[Hayabusa]

Dateline crosser continues to be in the Euro... but GFS very weak.

[Highteeld]

12z EPS data





12z ECMWF data

[euro6208]

Potentially 3 storms according to EURO.



Shanghai gets another TC.

The monster has a twin while barreling towards the Marianas. 00Z weaker at peak, 972mb, compared to 12Z's 956mb.

[euro6208]

This is probrably it.

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located some
650 miles south-southwest of Oahu is associated with a trough
of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to become
more conducive for development over the second half of the week as
it moves west to west-northwest at 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

[euro6208]

UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.7N 179.3E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 18.08.2019 16.0N 177.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 18.08.2019 16.4N 174.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2019 16.7N 171.8E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[euro6208]

What a change ...

[Highteeld]

Major shift north

[Hayabusa]

Euro continues on the dateline tracker but GFS said nah, it wants something developing near the Marianas instead

[1900hurricane]

The disturbance expected to cross over from the CPac is now Invest 90C.

[euro6208]

In the wake of Tropical Storm Krosa in the West Pacific basin, models depict both a broad and persistent area of low pressure centered in the Philippine Sea which could result in another tropical low developing in the region towards the end of Week-1. Both GEFS and ECMWF models do not show much strengthening of the disturbance once it forms, as it is forecast to track towards the west over eastern China. During Week-2, conditions are expected to become less favorable in the Pacific for tropical cyclogenesis. The GEFS model depicts a stronger tropical low developing over Philippine Sea during the earlier portion of Week-2; however, confidence for the development of this system remains low.

[euro6208]

Euro continues on the dateline tracker but GFS said nah, it wants something developing near the Marianas instead

GFS on a roll with the Marianas system...Varying runs on intensity.

[euro6208]

EURO bum on the Marianas system.

[euro6208]

GFS rampant on it. Similiar to EURO, it has a disturbance around the 25th. Could it be from 90C?